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UTSA

UTSA 20 at BYU 27

BYU
2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:58 · Ryan Rehkow punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Pregame prior+17.4Home team on offense+14.8Garbage-time factor+8.9Score differential+3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.7Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:44: Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 11 yds for a TD (Justen Smith KICK) — BYU win probability +1.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:04: Zach Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD (Justen Smith KICK) — BYU win probability +3.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:26: Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 32 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +5.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:18: Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds for a TD (Justen Smith PAT MISSED) — BYU win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:17: Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 34 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +11.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 7:49BYU 4th & 6 at UTSA 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:55UTSA 4th & 4 at BYU 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.2%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:41BYU 4th & 4 at UTSA 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:38UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:34BYU 4th & 7 at UTSA 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:17UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:15UTSA 4th & 12 at UTSA 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:13BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 36, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:01UTSA 4th & 15 at BYU 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:56BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:27UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 49, down 8
    Close callPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:58BYU 4th & 8 at BYU 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:27UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.8%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:29UTSA 4th & 19 at UTSA 46, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−2.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:41BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:44BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:04BYU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:26UTSA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:18BYU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:17UTSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:1498% → 98%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
97.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 17 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+35
97.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 35 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
97.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 10 yds Neil Pau'u fumbled, recovered by TexSASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2INT
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:203% → 3%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+23
97.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 23 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
97.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 14 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
97.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
97.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
97.3%
Harris, Frank pass incomplete to Cephus, Joshua, PENALTY BYU offside 5 yards to the BYU41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTSA.Similar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
97.3%
B.J. Daniels run for 3 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+5
97.2%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BYU 33Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
97.1%
Frank Harris pass intercepted Troy Warner return for no gain to the BYU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 51 yds · 3:0197% → 97%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
97.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+19
97.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 19 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
97.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Carter Wheat for 19 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.0%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Carter WheatSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-3
96.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 47 Tyler Allgeier fumbled, recovered by BYUSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+7
96.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 7 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
96.7%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner Romney, broken up by Corey Mayfield Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:454% → 4%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
96.5%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+8
96.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for no gain to the BYU 49Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+21
96.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Gavin Sharp for 21 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
96.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Julon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
96.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 6 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
95.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
95.9%
Hunter Duplessis 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5996% → 95%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
95.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Masen Wake for 18 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
95.7%
Gunner Romney run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 3
50
+12
95.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 12 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-15
95.5%
Wilson, Zach pass incomplete to Wheat, Carter, PENALTY BYU illegal block 15 yards to the BYU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 25
OWN 47
+5
95.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 5 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+10
95.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 10 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+18
95.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 18 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
95.1%
Zach Wilson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (9 Yards) to the TexSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
94.9%
Dax Milne run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 14Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
94.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 6 yds to the TexSA 4Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 4 yds for a TD (Justen Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:035% → 5%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.1%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 20Similar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
95.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-2
94.9%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 21Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+1
95.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 1 yd to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
94.9%
Lucas Dean punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dax Milne at the BYU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5995% → 94%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.7%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Tyler AllgeierSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
94.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
94.4%
Masen Wake run for 5 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
94.5%
Wilson, Zach pass incomplete to Milne, Dax, PENALTY BYU holding 10 yards to the BYU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+4
94.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 16
OWN 48
0
94.0%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Brayden CosperSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 16
OWN 48
+9
93.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
93.7%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:136% → 6%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
93.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+1
93.7%
Frank Harris run for 1 yd to the TexSA 11Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 5
OWN 11
0
93.7%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 5
OWN 11
0
93.9%
Lucas Dean punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 2:1694% → 95%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
93.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+17
93.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 17 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
93.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 17 yds to the TexSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
93.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 11Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
95.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 11 yds for a TD (Justen Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:255% → 5%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
95.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 13 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
95.1%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 39Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
95.2%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
95.3%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Leroy WatsonSimilar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
95.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:4795% → 95%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+11
94.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 11 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
94.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+1
95.1%
Zach Wilson run for 1 yd to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+8
95.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
95.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
95.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 7 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
95.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+4
95.2%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 45 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 4 yds to the TexSA 40 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TexSA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:105% → 5%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
95.4%
B.J. Daniels run for no gain to the TexSA 13Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-3
95.3%
Lowell Narcisse run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 10Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 10
-2
95.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:546% → 7%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.5%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
94.1%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+24
94.4%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Leroy Watson for 24 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
93.6%
Lowell Narcisse run for 2 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+12
93.5%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 12 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
93.0%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Leroy Watson for 18 yds to the BYU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
92.8%
Lowell Narcisse run for 3 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+2
92.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
93.0%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 5
OPP 9
-5
93.4%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 14Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 10
OPP 14
-5
93.7%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 19Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+36
92.9%
Hunter Duplessis 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5993% → 92%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
92.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+3
92.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 3 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+1
92.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 1 yd to the BYU 26Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
91.8%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 4:138% → 9%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
91.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Sincere McCormickSimilar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
92.0%
Zakhari Franklin run for 8 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+4
91.7%
Lowell Narcisse run for 4 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
91.3%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 28Similar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 15
OWN 28
0
91.5%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+2
91.6%
B.J. Daniels run for 2 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+14
92.0%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 14 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
90.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Julon Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+4
91.1%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 4 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+5
90.9%
Narcisse, Lowell pass incomplete to Franklin, Zakhari, PENALTY BYU offside 5 yards to the BYU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-3
90.3%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Sincere McCormick for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
91.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dax Milne at the BYU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 3:1693% → 97%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
92.9%
Zach Wilson run for 1 yd to the BYU 11Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+3
92.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+14
92.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 14 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+52
92.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 52 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
93.8%
Zach Wilson run for 13 yds to the TexSA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
93.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the TexSA 4Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.1%
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD (Justen Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:344% → 10%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to B.J. Daniels for no gain to the TexSA 35Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+32
95.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 32 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
94.9%
Lowell Narcisse run for 3 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-2
94.7%
Lowell Narcisse run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+32
89.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 32 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2293% → 91%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
92.6%
Zach Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 27 Zach Wilson fumbled, recovered by BYUSimilar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
91.8%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Tyler AllgeierSimilar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
91.4%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 4:269% → 8%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
90.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
90.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
89.5%
Lowell Narcisse run for no gain to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+14
90.6%
Lowell Narcisse run for 14 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
88.4%
McCormick, Sincere rush for 9 yards to the BYU36, PENALTY UTSA holding 10 yards to the UTSA45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+7
89.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Leroy Watson for 7 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+3
90.0%
B.J. Daniels run for 3 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-9
90.0%
Lowell Narcisse sacked by Gabe Summers for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 19
OWN 46
0
92.1%
Lucas Dean punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:0792% → 98%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
92.0%
Gunner Romney run for 2 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
92.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 10 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
93.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 2 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Personal Foul (Rashad Wisdom) to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.7%
Lopini Katoa run for no gain to the BYU 49 Lopini Katoa fumbled, recovered by BYUSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
93.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+21
93.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 21 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
95.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Carter WheatSimilar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
95.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 8 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
-10
94.9%
Wake, Masen rush for 15 yards to the UTSA5, PENALTY BYU holding 10 yards to the UTSA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+18
94.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 18 yds to the TexSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
96.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the TexSA 11Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+5
96.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the TexSA 6Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
98.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds for a TD (Justen Smith PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:482% → 14%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 14 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
97.5%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 6 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+21
97.6%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 21 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
85.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 34 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22Uncategorized
9 plays · 8 yds · 1:0597% → 97%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
96.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-1
97.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-2
96.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 10
OWN 49
-5
96.5%
BYU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 15
OWN 44
+15
96.1%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:17
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 34 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q4 14:26
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 32 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
-5
TD · Q3 1:04
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD (Justen Smith KICK)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com