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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 20 at Troy 17

TROY
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Kyle Ulbrich punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Pregame prior+13.0Home team on offense−8.0Garbage-time factor−3.0Score differential−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:45: Frank Peasant run for 5 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:29: B.J. Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +10.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q2 0:17: Crews Holt 22 yd FG GOOD — MTSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:28: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +27.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:27: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 47 — MTSU win probability +16.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MTSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:20TROY 4th & 4 at MTSU 15, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.8%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:20MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:25MTSU 4th & 1 at TROY 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−1.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−5.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:17MTSU 4th & 4 at TROY 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−6.7
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00MTSU 4th & 9 at TROY 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%−2.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:04TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−1.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:16MTSU 4th & 16 at TROY 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    50.6%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:54TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:08MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−4.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:13MTSU 4th & 6 at TROY 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−12.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:00TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−3.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:37MTSU 4th & 2 at TROY 31, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%−1.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:56MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:45MTSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:29TROY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:28TROY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:4075% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
75.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
75.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to B.J. SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+40
75.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 40 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
75.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie Todd, broken up by Teldrick RossSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
75.4%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+25
75.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 25 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
75.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-8
75.4%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Jordan Branch and Johnathan Butler for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 29
+14
75.4%
Jamontez Woods run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
75.0%
Evan Legassey 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.9%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+23
74.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 23 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
74.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-2
74.6%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Antonio Showers for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
74.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
75.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3INT
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:2375% → 75%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
74.6%
Gunnar Watson run for 8 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
74.8%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
74.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 5 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+5
74.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 5 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
74.7%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
74.8%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
74.7%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
74.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 5 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-4
74.9%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted Johnathan Butler return for 4 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:0926% → 32%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
74.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+13
73.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 13 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
73.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
73.5%
Chaton Mobley run for 5 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+6
73.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
73.3%
Jayy McDonald run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+2
73.2%
Jayy McDonald run for 2 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+6
73.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
71.9%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 22Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+18
72.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 18 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · -4 yds · 0:4470% → 68%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
69.6%
Tez Johnson run for 5 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-1
69.8%
Jamontez Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+13
68.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 13 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
69.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
69.8%
Watson, Gunnar sideline pass incomplete to Billingsley, DK (ROSS, Teldrick), PENALTY TROY false start (Andrews, Jake) 5 yards to the TROY33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+9
69.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 9 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-14
70.0%
Gunnar Watson sacked by DQ Thomas for a loss of 14 yards to the Troy 17 Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by Troy Reggie Todd , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 31
OWN 17
0
68.4%
Jack Martin punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 5:0932% → 46%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
67.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 6 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+16
67.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 16 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
66.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 12 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
66.7%
Frank Peasant run for 10 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
66.2%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-5
66.2%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Luis Medina for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+12
67.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 12 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
65.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
63.8%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the Troy 15Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+10
63.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 10 yds to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
54.2%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:1055% → 67%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
55.4%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
55.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 4 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+8
54.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
56.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
56.0%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-5
55.6%
TROY Penalty, false start (Grant Betts) to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+58
54.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 58 yds to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.5%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8FG
17 plays · 70 yds · 4:1238% → 50%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
61.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 9 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
60.4%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
60.8%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
59.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 10 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
59.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+14
59.4%
O'HARA, Asher deep pass incomplete to ANDERSON, Brad, PENALTY TROY personal foul (Choloh, Will) 14 yards to the TROY34, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
58.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+6
58.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 6 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
58.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+8
58.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Joeseph Sewell for 8 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
54.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 8 yds to the Troy 3Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 2
OPP 3
-2
54.8%
Chaton Mobley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 5Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
55.2%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
49.6%
Crews Holt 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:1755% → 59%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
54.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 29 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
59.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+53
58.7%
Evan Legassey 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.1%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
50.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 13 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
49.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 5 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+8
49.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 8 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
48.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-1
48.6%
DJ England-Chisolm run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
49.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
50.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
49.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 3 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
49.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
47.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
47.1%
Jack Martin punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
44.6%
Jayy McDonald run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+21
44.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 21 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
44.0%
Jayy McDonald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-10
44.0%
O'HARA, Asher rush up middle for 1 yard to the TROY36 (Robertson, K.J.), PENALTY MT holding (FALVEY, Tyler) 10 yards to the TROY47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 21
OPP 47
0
45.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 21
OPP 47
+5
46.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 16
OPP 42
0
48.1%
Asher O'Hara punt for 36 yds, downed at the Troy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
45.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+6
45.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 6 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 4
OWN 12
0
44.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jamontez WoodsSimilar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 4
OWN 12
0
43.4%
Jack Martin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0061% → 56%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
39.4%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 8
50
+4
39.0%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-11
39.5%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Will Choloh for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
43.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 36 yds , Tez Johnson returns for no gain to the Troy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15INT
8 plays · 58 yds · 1:1343% → 47%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
42.8%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+24
42.9%
B.J. Smith run for 24 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
46.8%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 7
50
+13
47.5%
B.J. Smith run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
47.0%
B.J. Smith run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
48.9%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+1
48.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 1 yd to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
46.6%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted, touchback. Gregory Grate Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16MISSED FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 5:2664% → 74%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
36.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 8 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+16
34.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 16 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
32.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 4 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
32.1%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+15
31.5%
DJ England-Chisolm run for 15 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
30.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 7 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+5
30.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
30.4%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete, PENALTY MT face mask (HINTON, Dorian) 15 yards to the TROY35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+10
30.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for 10 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+2
30.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+7
31.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
25.7%
Crews Holt 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:1330% → 31%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
30.2%
Jamontez Woods run for 20 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
33.3%
Jamontez Woods run for 1 yd to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+2
32.3%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+5
30.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 5 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+34
31.4%
Jack Martin punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the TROY 13 TROY Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 5:2077% → 94%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
23.4%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+7
23.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 7 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
23.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
22.8%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
22.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 7 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+23
21.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 23 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
13.0%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+4
12.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+2
10.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+49
6.4%
Crews Holt 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 2:026% → 34%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
6.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 3 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+10
6.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 10 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
6.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 9 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+21
7.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 21 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
6.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
6.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 4 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+9
6.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to DK Billingsley for 9 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
7.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to DK Billingsley for 13 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
5.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
5.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 8 yds to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
33.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
5.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:28
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
+27.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:27
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 47
-16
TD · Q2 4:29
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
+10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com