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TROY

Troy 47 at Middle Tennessee 14

MTSU
2020 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2020 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:47 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:33: Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:11: Charles Strong run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +5.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:50: Evan Legassey 47 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +2.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:03: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 5 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +13.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:56: Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +10.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:13MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:03MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:11MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:22TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:50TROY 4th & 13 at MTSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:25MTSU 4th & 2 at TROY 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%−2.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:02TROY 4th & 5 at MTSU 35, up 10
    Close callPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%−0.4
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:56TROY 4th & 1 at MTSU 1, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    84.7%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−10.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:22MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 24, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 2 at MTSU 43, up 33
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:03MTSU 4th & 4 at TROY 31, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:54MTSU 4th & 8 at TROY 28, down 40
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:13TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:33MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:11TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:03TROY Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:56TROY Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:29TROY Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:22TROY Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:54MTSU Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 3:4752% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
47.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 5 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
47.9%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
47.9%
Gunnar Watson run for 3 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
47.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+19
47.9%
B.J. Smith run for 19 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
47.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 4 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+9
47.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 9 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
48.1%
Watson, Gunnar pass intercepted by GRATE, Gregory at the MT15, GRATE, Gregory return to the TROY0, clock 12:49, PENALTY MT substitution infraction 5 yards to the MT25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
48.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-7
48.1%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Decorian Patterson and Raquon Hartley for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+17
48.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 17 yds to the MTnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
48.1%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
46.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds for a TD MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
47.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
47.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
47.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 13 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
47.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
47.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 5 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-5
47.6%
O'HARA, Asher rush for 5 yards to the 50 yardline (Robertson, K.J.), PENALTY MT false start (RYLES, Jahlil) 5 yards to the MT40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
47.4%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin Pierce, broken up by Reddy StewardSimilar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
47.2%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3INT
6 plays · 50 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
46.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 15 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
45.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 4 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+17
45.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 17 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
45.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 14 yds to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
45.9%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
45.9%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted, touchback. Decorian Patterson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
46.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
46.4%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
46.0%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
45.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0054% → 55%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
45.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 19 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
45.2%
Gunnar Watson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
45.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+10
45.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 10 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
45.1%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Cody Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 31 Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Jordan Ferguson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:1146% → 53%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
46.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jayy McDonald for 1 yd to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+6
46.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 6 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+7
46.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 7 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
46.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for 12 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
47.2%
Jayy McDonald run for no gain to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
47.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 6 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-1
47.6%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+21
47.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 21 yds to the Troy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:1451% → 58%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
48.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 8 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+38
48.3%
B.J. Smith run for 38 yds to the MTnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
47.8%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 11
OPP 16
-8
48.0%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Cody Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 24
+19
49.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 19 yds to the MTnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
47.8%
Charles Strong run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.2%
Charles Strong run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
44.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
45.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
44.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 10 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
45.4%
Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
45.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
45.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin Pierce, broken up by Dell PettusSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
44.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
43.7%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 3Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 11
OWN 3
0
43.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete, broken up by Brett ShepherdSimilar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 11
OWN 3
+5
44.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 5 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 6
OWN 8
0
44.8%
Kyle Coale punt for 38 yds, downed at the Troy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2245% → 45%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
45.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jayy McDonaldSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-33
45.0%
Asher O'Hara pass intercepted Craig Slocum return for 23 yds to the Troy 23 TROY Penalty, illegal block (Carlton Martial) to the Troy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:4059% → 61%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
40.9%
B.J. Smith run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
40.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 2 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+3
40.6%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+8
40.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 8 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-8
40.3%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Decorian Patterson for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 18
OPP 35
+5
40.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 13
OPP 30
0
41.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+47
38.7%
Evan Legassey 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:2538% → 39%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
38.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
38.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jamichael Thompson for 10 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
39.1%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
38.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Frank Peasant for no gain to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+10
37.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 10 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+1
38.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the Troy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:1864% → 64%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
36.3%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
36.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 5 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+8
36.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 8 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
34.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+7
34.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 7 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
34.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
36.2%
Kyle Coale punt for 29 yds, downed at the MTnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14SF
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:1533% → 31%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
33.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
33.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jarrin Pierce, broken up by Reddy StewardSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 6
-6
31.4%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Will Choloh for a loss of 6 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 1:2071% → 87%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
29.1%
Kaylon Geiger run for 6 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
29.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+13
29.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 13 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
28.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Bret ClarkSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+13
28.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 13 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
28.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+25
28.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 25 yds to the MTnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
28.2%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
26.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Khalil McClain, broken up by Brett ShepherdSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
13.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 5 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jamichael Thompson for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
20.8%
Chase Cunningham pass intercepted Terence Dunlap return for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:2086% → 96%
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
14.5%
PENALTY TROY unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY MT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
15.0%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
15.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tray Eafford, broken up by Brett ShepherdSimilar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+10
15.2%
Gunnar Watson run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
14.5%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
14.5%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+6
14.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 6 yds to the MTnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
14.5%
Watson, Gunnar pass incomplete to Whittemore, L. (ROSS, Teldrick), PENALTY MT pass interference (ROSS, Teldrick) 15 yards to the MT2, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
14.3%
Charles Strong run for no gain to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
14.5%
Charles Strong run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q3 14:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
14.8%
Gunnar Watson run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.0%
Chase Cunningham run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
4.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jayy McDonald for 6 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.1%
Jayy McDonald run for no gain to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
4.0%
Chase Cunningham pass intercepted Terence Dunlap return for no gain to the Troy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:5696% → 99%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
3.9%
Kaylon Geiger run for 13 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
3.7%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
3.4%
Watson, Gunnar pass intercepted by THOMAS, DQ at the TROY38, THOMAS, DQ return to the TROY0, clock 07:09, PENALTY MT offside (FERGUSON, J.) 5 yards to the TROY48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
3.3%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
3.3%
DK Billingsley run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
3.3%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+7
3.2%
DK Billingsley run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
3.0%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
3.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 18 yds to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
3.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
2.8%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.2%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
2.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 15 TEAM fumbled, forced by Javon Solomon, recovered by MTnStSimilar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+1
2.5%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 16
OWN 16
+8
2.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
2.5%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 37 yds, downed at the Troy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
0.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 5 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
0.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+3
0.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
0.8%
Charles Strong run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+4
0.8%
Charles Strong run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+2
0.8%
Charles Strong run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+10
0.9%
Kyle Coale punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 25 , Jaylin Lane returns for 10 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.5%
Jayy McDonald run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
0.5%
TROY Penalty, personal foul (John Hines Jr.) to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
0.5%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
0.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
0.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
0.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
0.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jaylin LaneSimilar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+1
0.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 1 yd to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+3
0.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
0.4%
Charles Strong run for 4 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+16
0.4%
Charles Strong run for 16 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
0.4%
Charles Strong run for 17 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
0.4%
Charles Strong run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+12
0.4%
Jamontez Woods run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
0.4%
Jamontez Woods run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.2%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tyler Hussey for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:220% → 0%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
0.2%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
0.2%
DILIELLO, Mike rush for 1 yard to the MT33, out-of-bounds (Harris, Navy), PENALTY TROY offside (Pierce, AJ) 5 yards to the MT37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-3
0.2%
Mike Diliello run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 37 Mike Diliello fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Mike DilielloSimilar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
0.2%
Mike Diliello pass complete to Landon Burrell for 7 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
0.2%
Mike Diliello run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 4
50
+20
0.2%
Frank Peasant run for 20 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
0.2%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
0.2%
Mike Diliello pass complete to Landon Burrell for no gain to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
0.2%
Mike Diliello pass incomplete to Jamichael ThompsonSimilar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+28
0.1%
Mike Diliello pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 28 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26Uncategorized
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
0.1%
Josh Mays run for 5 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 7
OWN 20
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:03
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 5 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
-13.4
TD · Q3 9:56
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
-10.5
TD · Q2 14:11
Charles Strong run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
-5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com