2020 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2020 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadCAM aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreCAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:01 · McKay Taylor punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:42: Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Mason Donaldson for 7 yds for a TD (Isaac Riffle KICK) — CAM win probability +2.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CAM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:29: Kenneth Walker III run for 12 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:51: Nick Sciba 41 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +0.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:25: Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:26: Hajj-Malik Williams pass intercepted for a TD Zion Keith return for 45 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CAM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CAM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 8:18CAM 4th & 9 at WAKE 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call3.3%89% to makePunt2.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 3:06WAKE 4th & 10 at CAM 10, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snapGo for it96.3%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call96.3%88% to makePunt95.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 6:23CAM 4th & 11 at CAM 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q2 0:51WAKE 4th & 20 at CAM 23, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.2%−0.69% to convertField goalTheir call95.8%70% to makePunt94.6%−1.2average punt
- Q3 11:26CAM 4th & 14 at CAM 21, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 11:06CAM 4th & 10 at WAKE 44, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.130% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:01CAM 4th & 10 at CAM 44, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 8CAM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:51WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:49WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:42CAM Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.4%97% to makeGo for two5.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:29WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:25WAKE Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:26WAKE Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:28WAKE Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:26CAM Touchdown, down 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:06WAKE Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:09WAKE Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCAMDrive 1MISSED FG16 plays · 66 yds · 6:422% → 3%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
98.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Bryant Barr for 6 yds to the Camp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
98.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+36
98.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Bryant Barr for 36 yds to the WFrst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
98.2%
WILLIAMS, H. pass incomplete to FRAZIER, Cedric, PENALTY WF pass interference (Z Keith) 8 yards to the WF2, 1ST DOWN CAM, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2TD10 plays · 80 yds · 3:2797% → 97%
Q1 8:18
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+6
97.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 6 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+7
97.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 7 yds to the Camp 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+40
97.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 40 yds to the Camp 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 3INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass intercepted Traveon Redd return for 5 yds to the Camp 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4MISSED FG6 plays · 11 yds · 1:3897% → 97%
CAMDrive 5FUMBLE1 play · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
97.0%
Bryant Barr run for 2 yds to the Camp 22 Bryant Barr fumbled, forced by Chase Jones, recovered by WFrst Zion KeithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD3 plays · 22 yds · 1:0797% → 98%
Q1 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
97.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 10 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 7TD18 plays · 75 yds · 8:073% → 6%
Q1 1:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
97.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Camp 23Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+12
97.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Austin Hite for 12 yds to the Camp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
97.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 8 yds to the Camp 43Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 10
50
+16
97.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Austin Hite for 16 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
96.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 4 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+4
96.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Cedric Frazier for 4 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+5
96.9%
BARR, Bryant rush for loss of 2 yards to the WF16 (M Fox;C Jones), PENALTY WF offside (T Redd) 5 yards to the WF9, 1ST DOWN CAM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
96.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jordan Goco for 2 yds to the WFrst 7Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
94.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Mason Donaldson for 7 yds for a TD (Isaac Riffle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8TD9 plays · 71 yds · 2:0795% → 97%
Q2 8:36
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+4
95.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Nolan Groulx for 4 yds to the Camp 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
96.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jai Williams for 9 yds to the Camp 25Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-3
96.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Jacorey Johns for a loss of 3 yards to the Camp 32Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
96.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Jalen Kelsey, broken up by Miles FoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10FG9 plays · 55 yds · 1:5996% → 97%
Q2 2:50
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+22
96.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 22 yds to the Camp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+34
96.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 34 yds to the Camp 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 15
OPP 18
-5
96.6%
Sam Hartman sacked by Jack Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the Camp 23Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 20
OPP 23
0
96.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry, broken up by Malik GrateSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 11END OF HALF4 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
WAKEDrive 12TD9 plays · 78 yds · 2:3097% → 99%
Q3 14:55
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+7
96.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 7 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+11
96.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 11 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
97.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
97.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 16 yds to the Camp 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 13INT TD4 plays · 0 yds · 0:502% → 0%
Q3 11:26
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-45
99.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass intercepted for a TD Zion Keith return for 45 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15TD10 plays · 76 yds · 4:01100% → 100%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
99.8%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 10 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+23
99.8%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 23 yds to the Camp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+14
99.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 14 yds to the Camp 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 16TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 7 yds to the Camp 32Similar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
99.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 24 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.8%
WILLIAMS, H. pass incomplete to HITE, Austin, PENALTY WF pass interference (C Carson) 12 yards to the WF26, 1ST DOWN CAM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.6%
Mason Donaldson pass complete to Hajj-Malik Williams for 26 yds for a TD (Isaac Riffle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 18FUMBLE13 plays · 69 yds · 4:060% → 0%
Q3 4:06
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+10
99.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Mason Donaldson for 10 yds to the Camp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
99.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Brandon Fitez for 5 yds to the Camp 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+18
99.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Austin Hite for 18 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
99.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 6 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-4
99.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 11 yds to the WFrst 23 Hajj-Malik Williams fumbled, forced by Ja'Cquez Williams, recovered by WFrst Nick Andersen CAMPBELL Penalty, personal foul (Hajj-Malik Williams) to the WFrst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19TD8 plays · 77 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
Q4 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+34
99.9%
Michael Kern pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 34 yds to the Camp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+10
99.9%
Michael Kern pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 10 yds to the Camp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Michael Kern pass incomplete to Nolan Groulx, broken up by James TarverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.9%
Wiley Hartley pass complete to Brandon Fitez for 17 yds to the Camp 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+12
99.9%
Wiley Hartley pass complete to Cooper Eason-Riddle for 12 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Wiley Hartley pass incomplete to Bryant Barr, broken up by Tyriq HardimonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21TD6 plays · 80 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
CAMDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
100.0%
DeAnte Jackson run for 9 yds to the Camp 38 DeAnte Jackson fumbled, forced by J.J. Roberts, recovered by Camp Campbell TarpeySimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Jesse Fiske pass incomplete to Jalen Kelsey, broken up by Isaiah IsaacSimilar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 9
OWN 45
-1
100.0%
Jesse Fiske sacked by Will Smart for a loss of 1 yard to the Camp 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23END OF GAME3 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:42
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Mason Donaldson for 7 yds for a TD (Isaac Riffle KICK)
-2.3
TD · Q3 12:25
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q3 11:26
Hajj-Malik Williams pass intercepted for a TD Zion Keith return for 45 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
+1.2