View as
Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Jared Porter punt for 42 yds , Justin Garrett returns for no gain to the UTEP 23 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the UTEP 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:33: Deion Hankins run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +7.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:57: Deion Hankins run for 8 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +9.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:21: Gavin Baechle 42 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +18.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- MISSED FG · Q3 6:05: Gavin Baechle 31 yd FG MISSED — UTEP win probability +14.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:55: Colby Suits pass complete to Jahquan Bloomfield for 35 yds for a TD Suits, Colby pass attempt to Whitfield, Chan good, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Hodoh, Jonathan) 15 yards to the UTEP18, NO PLAY. (Zach Elder PAT MISSED) — ULM win probability +9.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 9UTEP made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 10:40UTEP 4th & 20 at ULM 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snapGo for it26.0%−0.110% to convertField goalTheir call26.2%47% to makePunt26.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:40ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 42, tiedClose callPunted · 73.8% before the snapGo for it73.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:05UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snapGo for it31.3%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.4%average punt
- Q1 1:49ULM 4th & 22 at ULM 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snapGo for it65.1%−1.78% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.8%average punt
- Q2 13:33ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 30, down 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 58.9% before the snapGo for it59.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.5%−1.4average punt
- Q2 6:57ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snapGo for it38.1%−0.733% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.8%average punt
- Q2 0:21UTEP 4th & 1 at ULM 24, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snapGo for it76.7%−0.471% to convertField goalTheir call77.1%68% to makePunt73.6%−3.5average punt
- Q3 15:00ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 23, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snapGo for it25.2%−2.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.5%average punt
- Q3 6:05UTEP 4th & 2 at ULM 14, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snapGo for it92.0%56% to convertField goalTheir call91.6%−0.484% to makePunt88.3%−3.7average punt
- Q3 6:05ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 22, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it8.6%−1.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.9%average punt
- Q4 15:00UTEP 4th & 10 at ULM 48, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snapGo for it91.2%−0.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.0%average punt
- Q4 12:14ULM 4th & 18 at ULM 22, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it5.6%−3.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q4 5:49UTEP 4th & 7 at ULM 29, up 18Close callWent for it · 97.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.8%−0.137% to convertField goal96.9%58% to makePunt94.8%−2.2average punt
- Q4 5:43ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 25, down 18Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.0%average punt
- Q4 2:32ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 35, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 0 of 1UTEP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 7:40UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.5%97% to makeGo for two28.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:33UTEP Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.1%97% to makeGo for two40.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:57UTEP Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.1%97% to makeGo for two59.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:55ULM Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick10.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call10.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:32UTEP Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTEPDrive 1MISSED FG10 plays · 41 yds · 4:2023% → 24%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+38
76.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 38 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 26
-8
76.6%
Gavin Hardison sacked by Kenderick Marbles for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 34 Gavin Hardison fumbled, recovered by UTEP Gavin Hardison , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
75.7%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jahquan Bloomfield for 5 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3TD3 plays · 86 yds · 1:3525% → 28%
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+82
75.2%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 82 yds to the LaMon 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4INT7 plays · 62 yds · 2:3573% → 72%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
72.6%
Colby Suits pass complete to Josh Pederson for 11 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+49
72.7%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jevin Frett for 49 yds to the UTEP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 8
OPP 14
-8
71.7%
Colby Suits pass intercepted Duron Lowe return for 8 yds to the UTEP 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 0:5329% → 29%
Q1 4:58
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
70.7%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Corey StraughterSimilar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+12
70.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 12 yds to the UTEP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
69.9%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Walter Dawn Jr., broken up by Jabari JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+6
70.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT6 plays · -12 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q1 1:49
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-10
69.6%
Suits, Colby pass incomplete to Lamm, Tyler, PENALTY ULM holding (Williams, Samue) 10 yards to the ULM39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 17
OWN 39
0
68.6%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Isaiah Phillips, broken up by Keenan StewartSimilar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 22
OWN 34
+2
67.7%
Jared Porter punt for 36 yds , Justin Garrett returns for 2 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7TD6 plays · 68 yds · 2:2133% → 42%
Q1 0:54
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+22
67.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 22 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
UTEPDrive 9TD10 plays · 73 yds · 4:1545% → 55%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+38
55.5%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 38 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
54.6%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Keilos SwinneySimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+12
54.5%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 12 yds to the LaMon 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 6:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
45.2%
Colby Suits pass complete to Josh Johnson for 1 yd to the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11FG9 plays · 38 yds · 5:1456% → 76%
Q2 5:35
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+14
45.1%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 14 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-8
29.1%
Colby Suits sacked by Kelton Moss for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 24 Colby Suits fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
26.4%
Jared Porter punt for 42 yds , Justin Garrett returns for no gain to the UTEP 23 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the UTEP 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14MISSED FG15 plays · 61 yds · 7:2379% → 92%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
20.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 11 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
20.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 6 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
20.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 9 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-5
19.3%
HARDISON, Gavin pass incomplete to COOPER, D., PENALTY UTEP ineligible downfield on pass (HENRY, Zuri) 5 yards to the ULM38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+16
20.5%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 16 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
UTEPDrive 16FUMBLE4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
6.3%
Calvin Brownholtz run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 45 Calvin Brownholtz fumbled, recovered by LaMon Keilos Swinney , return for 9 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD4 plays · 55 yds · 1:418% → 17%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
7.7%
Colby Suits pass complete to Josh Johnson for 2 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+11
7.8%
Colby Suits pass complete to Chandler Whitfield for 11 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
8.1%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 7 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+35
17.4%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jahquan Bloomfield for 35 yds for a TD Suits, Colby pass attempt to Whitfield, Chan good, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Hodoh, Jonathan) 15 yards to the UTEP18, NO PLAY. (Zach Elder PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 27 yds · 0:5592% → 92%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
7.9%
HANKINS, Deion rush for 9 yards to the UTEP34, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UTEP holding (GARRETT, Justin) 10 yards to the UTEP15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
7.9%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Jacob Cowing, broken up by Keilos SwinneySimilar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+1
7.9%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the UTEP 16 UTEP Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+36
7.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Trent Thompson for 36 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
7.1%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Justin Garrett, broken up by Kenderick MarblesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 48
+18
7.8%
Joshua Sloan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Perry Carter Jr. at the LaMon 15 UTEP Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the LaMon 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 12:14
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-14
8.7%
Suits, Colby rush for 1 yard to the ULM37 (AMAEWHULE, P.;KNIGHT, Tyrice), PENALTY ULM personal foul (Cutler, Victor) 14 yards to the ULM22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 18
OWN 22
-7
8.2%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 25 UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the LaMon 15Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 25
OWN 15
0
8.2%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jevin Frett for 14 yds to the LaMon 29 UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (-14 Yards) to the LaMon 15Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 25
OWN 15
+7
8.1%
Colby Suits pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 18
OWN 22
+7
8.1%
Jared Porter punt for 38 yds , Justin Garrett returns for 7 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 28 yds · 3:5496% → 97%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
4.0%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Justin Garrett, broken up by Kevric WigginsSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
4.0%
FIELDS, Josh rush for no gain to the ULM32 (Ledet, Quincy;Glass, Tyler), PENALTY UTEP holding (LEE, Darta) 10 yards to the ULM42, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
2.9%
Colby Suits sacked by Stephen Forester for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 19Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+6
2.9%
Colby Suits pass complete to Isaiah Phillips for 6 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
2.9%
Colby Suits pass complete to Isaiah Phillips for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22TD3 plays · 31 yds · 1:2798% → 100%
Q4 2:32
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+23
0.1%
Ronald Awatt run for 23 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK) UL MONROE Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23END OF GAME10 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:32
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+10
0.2%
Colby Suits pass complete to Chandler Whitfield for 10 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
0.2%
Colby Suits pass complete to Josh Pederson for 9 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+4
0.3%
Colby Suits pass complete to Javin Myers for 4 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-6
0.2%
Colby Suits sacked by Jalen Rudolph for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:21
Gavin Baechle 42 yd FG GOOD
-18.6
MISSED FG · Q3 6:05
Gavin Baechle 31 yd FG MISSED
-14.1
TD · Q3 0:55
Colby Suits pass complete to Jahquan Bloomfield for 35 yds for a TD Suits, Colby pass attempt to Whitfield, Chan good, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Hodoh, Jonathan) 15 yards to the UTEP18, NO PLAY. (Zach Elder PAT MISSED)
+9.4