2020 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2020 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadCAM aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreCAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:59 · C.J. Freeman run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:23: Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 21 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +1.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:59: C.J. Freeman run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CAM win probability +2.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CAM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:02: Reese White run for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:57: Bryant Barr run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CAM win probability +3.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CAM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:55: CJ Marable run for 9 yds for a TD (Grayson McCall pass to Jaivon Heiligh for Two-Point Conversion) — CCU win probability +2.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CAM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 8:08CAM 4th & 2 at CCU 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.8%57% to convertField goal5.6%−0.140% to makePunt5.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:18CAM 4th & 24 at CCU 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.67% to convertField goalTheir call5.8%60% to makePunt4.6%−1.2average punt
- Q3 10:35CAM 4th & 12 at CAM 18, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it6.8%−0.722% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q4 14:57CAM 4th & 2 at CCU 7, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.4%53% to convertField goal2.8%−0.691% to makePunt-0.4%−3.8average punt
- Q4 13:50CAM 4th & 13 at CAM 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.419% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 11:36CAM 4th & 8 at CAM 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 10:07CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 27, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CAM made the numbers' call on 0 of 3
- Q1 8:08CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.2%97% to makeGo for two94.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:34CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:23CCU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:59CAM Touchdown, down 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick6.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call6.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:02CCU Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:57CAM Touchdown, down 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick5.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call5.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:55CCU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick97.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call97.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:42CCU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:02CAM Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call0.6%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCAMDrive 1INT11 plays · 40 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+17
96.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jai Williams for 17 yds to the CCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-7
96.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Silas Kelly for a loss of 7 yards to the CCaro 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 35
-39
96.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass intercepted Alex Spillum return for 39 yds to the CCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2TD5 plays · 56 yds · 1:4095% → 95%
CAMDrive 3DOWNS11 plays · 37 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4TD9 plays · 62 yds · 4:2495% → 96%
CAMDrive 5FG11 plays · 47 yds · 4:165% → 6%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
94.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Bryant Barr for 3 yds to the Camp 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
94.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Bryant Barr for 10 yds to the Camp 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+42
94.9%
C.J. Freeman run for 28 yds to the COASTALCAR 28 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, player disqualification (Jordan Morris) to the CCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-17
94.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Jerrod Clark for a loss of 17 yards to the CCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6TD12 plays · 86 yds · 4:5094% → 96%
Q2 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+11
94.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Denmark for 11 yds to the CCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-6
94.2%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the CCaro 36 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the CCaro 26Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+13
94.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Denmark for 13 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+27
94.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 27 yds to the Camp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
95.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 21 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 7TD15 plays · 85 yds · 5:204% → 8%
Q2 6:19
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-8
95.6%
WILLIAMS, H. rush for 1 yard to the CAM17 (Makonzo, E.), PENALTY CAM holding (McLELLAN, Tyler) 8 yards to the CAM8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+20
95.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Julian Hill for 20 yds to the Camp 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-6
95.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Silas Kelly for a loss of 6 yards to the Camp 25Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+23
95.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Bryant Barr for 23 yds to the Camp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+13
95.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Cedric Frazier for 13 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+9
94.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 9 yds to the CCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
94.9%
WILLIAMS, H. pass complete to FRAZIER, Cedric for 10 yards to the CCU14, out-of-bounds, PENALTY CAM illegal touching (FRAZIER, Cedric) 0 yards to the CCU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
94.9%
WILLIAMS, H. pass incomplete, PENALTY CCU pass interference (Matts, B.) 15 yards to the CCU9, 1ST DOWN CAM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
92.3%
C.J. Freeman run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8END OF HALF3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
CCUDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+15
94.0%
McCall, G. pass incomplete to Likely, I., PENALTY CAM pass interference (TARVER, James) 15 yards to the CCU30, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
94.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 12 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:547% → 7%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Cedric Frazier, broken up by Alex SpillumSimilar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-2
93.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by C.J. Brewer and Teddy Gallagher for a loss of 2 yards to the Camp 18Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
92.8%
McKay Taylor punt for 42 yds , Jaivon Heiligh returns for no gain to the CCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11TD8 plays · 60 yds · 4:2394% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 12TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:054% → 8%
Q3 6:02
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+12
95.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to C.J. Freeman for 12 yds to the CCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
95.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Julian Hill for 4 yds to the CCaro 11Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+3
95.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Cedric Frazier for 3 yds to the CCaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13TD5 plays · 74 yds · 0:5696% → 100%
CAMDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:50
3RD & 12
OWN 26
-1
99.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by C.J. Brewer for a loss of 1 yard to the Camp 25 Hajj-Malik Williams fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 13
OWN 25
+19
99.1%
McKay Taylor punt for 51 yds , Jaivon Heiligh returns for 19 yds to the CCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15TD1 play · 57 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
99.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 57 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:36
4TH & 8
OWN 31
-3
99.9%
McKay Taylor punt for 44 yds , Jaivon Heiligh returns for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:07
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Charles Ouverson punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Camp 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 18TD15 plays · 72 yds · 5:290% → 1%
Q4 8:31
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
99.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 6 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+17
99.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 17 yds to the CCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Robert Brown PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19END OF GAME7 plays · 26 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:02
Reese White run for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
+4
TD · Q4 14:57
Bryant Barr run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-3.6
TD · Q2 0:59
C.J. Freeman run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-2.5