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ARMY

Army 28 at UTSA 16

UTSA
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:50 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:06: Jakobi Buchanan run for 5 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK) — ARMY win probability +7.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:11: Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 1 yd for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +12.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:04: Tyhier Tyler run for 37 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK) — ARMY win probability +12.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:06: Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 11 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Hunter Duplessis PAT BLOCKED) — UTSA win probability +17.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:47: Cade Ballard run for 5 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK) — ARMY win probability +15.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00UTSA 4th & 10 at ARMY 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:03UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:40ARMY 4th & 8 at UTSA 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    69.4%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:48UTSA 4th & 9 at ARMY 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:48ARMY 4th & 9 at ARMY 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:03UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00ARMY 4th & 25 at ARMY 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−4.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:07UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−3.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00UTSA 4th & 1 at ARMY 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−2.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:47UTSA 4th & 10 at ARMY 10, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%−1.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−7.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:15ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 23, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.5%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:47UTSA 4th & 4 at ARMY 22, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%−1.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:03ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:06ARMY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:11UTSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:04ARMY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:06UTSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:47ARMY Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
31.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 26 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
31.0%
Lowell Narcisse run for no gain to the Army 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
31.0%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-10
31.0%
NARCISSE, L. rush right for 11 yards to the ARMY38 (Rhattigan, Jon), PENALTY UTSA holding (OATIS, Josh) 10 yards to the UTSA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 41
+10
31.0%
Lowell Narcisse run for 10 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
31.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 2:4368% → 69%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
32.0%
Tyrell Robinson run for 7 yds to the Army 17Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+4
31.9%
Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds to the Army 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
31.9%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+9
31.9%
Cade Ballard run for 9 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
31.3%
Anthony Adkins run for 66 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
31.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 24Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+3
31.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
31.4%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+13
31.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 46 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 13 yds to the Army 40 ARMY Penalty, roughing the kicker (15 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.3%
Anthony Adkins run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
31.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 5 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
31.2%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
31.1%
Tyrell Robinson run for 17 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
30.8%
Tyrell Robinson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
30.8%
Tyrell Robinson run for no gain to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
30.9%
Cade Ballard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
31.2%
Zach Harding punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 5:0532% → 35%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
31.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 9 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 1
OWN 23
-5
32.0%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 18Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+7
31.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
31.8%
Lowell Narcisse run for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
32.2%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 11 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
32.5%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
32.2%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 9 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-5
32.8%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+9
32.2%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 9 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
32.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
32.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Joshua Cephus, broken up by Julian McDuffieSimilar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+11
32.3%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 11 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
33.3%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
33.3%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 1 yd to the Army 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
33.2%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+50
35.2%
Hunter Duplessis 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
34.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for no gain to the Army 24Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
34.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Army 25Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
35.4%
Cade Ballard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
36.0%
Zach Harding punt for 49 yds, downed at the TexSA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
35.4%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Sincere McCormickSimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+14
35.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 14 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
36.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
36.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
36.1%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Joshua Cephus, broken up by Julian McDuffieSimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+20
35.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 50 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 20 yds to the Army 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:2765% → 75%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
35.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 7 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+4
34.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
34.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for 14 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
33.9%
Anthony Adkins run for 10 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
33.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+5
32.2%
Anthony Adkins run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+4
32.9%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
32.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+4
32.2%
Anthony Adkins run for 4 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+2
33.0%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the TexSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
32.2%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 6 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+5
32.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
25.1%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 5 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9TD
19 plays · 87 yds · 4:5526% → 40%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
25.6%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 10 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
25.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
25.7%
Lowell Narcisse run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+3
25.7%
Lowell Narcisse run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-8
26.2%
Lowell Narcisse sacked by Ryan Duran III for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+8
25.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+24
25.2%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 24 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
27.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
27.6%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 2 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+13
27.5%
Lowell Narcisse run for 13 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
27.6%
Lowell Narcisse pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+13
27.5%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 13 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
27.6%
Lowell Narcisse run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 17Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+15
27.5%
NARCISSE, L. sideline pass incomplete to FRANKLIN, Z. (Jones, Cameron), PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Jones, Cameron) 15 yards to the ARMY2, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
27.4%
NARCISSE, L. slant pass incomplete to FRANKLIN, Z. (McDuffie, J.), PENALTY ARMY pass interference (McDuffie, J.) 1 yards to the ARMY1, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.2%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 1 yd for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
31.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
35.1%
Tyrell Robinson run for 2 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
35.8%
Ballard, Cade sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ARMY22 (HAYNES, Jaylon), PENALTY UTSA holding (MAYFIELD, Corey) 10 yards to the ARMY39, 1ST DOWN ARMY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
33.6%
Tyhier Tyler run for 7 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
33.3%
Anthony Adkins run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-3
32.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 47
-3
34.3%
Tyhier Tyler sacked by Christian Clayton for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 44
-9
35.5%
Cade Ballard sacked by Corey Mayfield Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Army 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 25
OWN 35
+3
37.2%
Zach Harding punt for 59 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 3 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
36.7%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 8 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+4
37.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
37.3%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
37.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+11
36.5%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 11 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
38.2%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the TexSA 37Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-4
38.0%
Brennon Dingle run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
35.8%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
35.3%
Lucas Dean punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:0665% → 82%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
34.6%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 3 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
34.1%
A.J. Howard run for 4 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
34.0%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
32.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+19
32.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, personal foul (Corey Mayfield Jr.) to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
30.0%
Sandon McCoy run for no gain to the TexSA 37Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
17.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 37 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5819% → 37%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.9%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
19.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
19.4%
Lowell Narcisse run for no gain to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
18.7%
ARMY Penalty, illegal procedure (5 Yards) to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
20.3%
Lowell Narcisse pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+21
20.0%
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 21 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
21.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 15 yds to the Army 25 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, illegal block (Zakhari Franklin) to the Army 35Similar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+1
23.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the Army 34Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+3
23.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
20.8%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the Army 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+20
19.6%
Lowell Narcisse run for 20 yds to the Army 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
37.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 11 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Hunter Duplessis PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1972% → 89%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
28.0%
Tyrell Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 22Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+15
28.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for no gain to the Army 22 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Antonio Parks) to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+58
26.4%
Cade Ballard pass complete to Camden Harrison for 53 yds to the UTSA 10 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, roughing passer (DeQuarius Henry) to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.1%
Cade Ballard run for 5 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 76 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+22
15.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 22 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
16.4%
Frank Harris run for 8 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+23
17.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, targeting (Julian McDuffie) to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
19.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 16 yds to the Army 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
19.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari Franklin, broken up by Cameron JonesSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
19.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q4 12:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
17.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for no gain to the Army 10Similar
Q4 12:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
16.4%
Frank Harris run for 7 yds to the Army 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17FUMBLE
14 plays · 45 yds · 6:2290% → 95%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
9.8%
Tyrell Robinson run for 6 yds to the Army 9Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+5
9.9%
Anthony Adkins run for 5 yds to the Army 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
9.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 16Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+4
9.9%
A.J. Howard run for 4 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+3
10.1%
Anthony Adkins run for 3 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+2
10.1%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.7%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
9.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
9.8%
Sandon McCoy run for 5 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
5.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 7 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+3
5.8%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
4.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 48 Tyhier Tyler fumbled, forced by Ken Robinson, recovered by TexSA Charles WileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
3.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 20 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
4.6%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Leroy WatsonSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
4.4%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+6
3.8%
Frank Harris run for 6 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 4
OPP 22
0
3.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Brennon Dingle, broken up by Marquel BroughtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
4.1%
Tyrell Robinson run for 3 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+6
4.1%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 6 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
4.1%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:06
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 11 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Hunter Duplessis PAT BLOCKED)
+17.4
TD · Q4 12:47
Cade Ballard run for 5 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q2 0:11
Lowell Narcisse pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 1 yd for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
+12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com