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ACU

Abilene Christian 23 at Army 55

ARMY
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:16 · Stone Earle pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 3 yds to the Army 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:37: Jemel Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers PAT MISSED) — ARMY win probability +1.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:15: Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK) — ARMY win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:27: Jemel Jones pass complete to Michael Roberts for 33 yds for a TD (A. Hobbs IV Run For Two-point Conversion) — ARMY win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:18: Peyton Mansell pass complete to Kobe Clark for 2 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Blair Zepeda PAT MISSED) — ACU win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:56: Jemel Jones run for 49 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK) — ARMY win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ACU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ACU 4th & 5 at ARMY 47, tied
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:39ARMY 4th & 1 at ACU 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:09ACU 4th & 4 at ARMY 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:36ACU 4th & 5 at ARMY 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55ARMY 4th & 22 at ACU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:55ACU 4th & 22 at ACU 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:59ACU 4th & 14 at ARMY 14, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:59ARMY 4th & 13 at ARMY 22, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:00ACU 4th & 7 at ACU 35, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:51ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 36, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:04ACU 4th & 12 at ACU 10, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:24ARMY 4th & 10 at ACU 45, up 20
    Close callWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%
    25% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:27ACU 4th & 10 at ARMY 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:22ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 15, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:49ACU 4th & 7 at ACU 41, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:12ARMY 4th & 12 at ACU 23, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:01ARMY 4th & 1 at ACU 37, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ACU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:20ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:37ARMY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:15ARMY Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:27ARMY Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:18ACU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:56ARMY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:29ACU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:29ARMY Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:01ACU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:37ARMY Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ACUDrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
96.8%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 13 yds to the AblCh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
96.8%
Darius Lewis run for 5 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
96.8%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Lionell McConnellSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
96.8%
Peyton Mansell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 47
-8
96.8%
Peyton Mansell sacked by Keeron Henderson for a loss of 8 yards to the AblCh 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
10 plays · 45 yds · 5:1997% → 96%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
96.6%
Sandon McCoy run for 5 yds to the AblCh 40Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+5
96.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 5 yds to the AblCh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
96.6%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 12 yds to the AblCh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
96.6%
Anthony Adkins run for 9 yds to the AblCh 14Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
96.6%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the AblCh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
96.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the AblCh 10Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+5
96.6%
Christian Anderson run for 5 yds to the AblCh 5Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+2
96.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the AblCh 3Similar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
96.6%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the AblCh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Sandon McCoy run for 1 yd for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 3DOWNS
15 plays · 37 yds · 4:354% → 5%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
96.0%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 6 yds to the AblCh 34Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+4
95.9%
Lionell McConnell run for 4 yds to the AblCh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
95.9%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Taelyn Williams for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
50
-5
95.9%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 45Similar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+10
95.9%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Taelyn Williams for 10 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
95.9%
Tyrese White run for 1 yd to the Army 44Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
95.9%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Taelyn Williams, broken up by Julian McDuffieSimilar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+4
95.4%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 4 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.3%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete, broken up by Amadeo WestSimilar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
95.3%
Peyton Mansell run for 5 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
95.3%
Peyton Mansell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
95.2%
Peyton Mansell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:3795% → 95%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
95.3%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
50
+8
95.5%
Sandon McCoy run for 8 yds to the AblCh 42Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+5
95.5%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the AblCh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
95.5%
Tyrell Robinson run for 8 yds to the AblCh 29 for a 1ST down ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, personal foul (Jairan Parker) to the AblCh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
95.5%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 19Similar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 15
OPP 19
-15
95.5%
Hobbs, Artice rush for 3 yards to the ACU16 (B. Robinson), PENALTY ARMY personal foul 15 yards to the ACU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 30
OPP 34
+4
95.5%
Christian Anderson run for 4 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 26
OPP 30
0
95.4%
Anthony Adkins run for no gain to the AblCh 30Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 26
OPP 30
+4
95.4%
Christian Parrish run for 4 yds to the AblCh 26Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 22
OPP 26
+43
94.7%
Landon Salyers 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
95.0%
Darius Lewis run for a loss of 4 yards to the AblCh 21Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
95.1%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Tyrese White for 2 yds to the AblCh 23Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-10
95.1%
Peyton Mansell sacked by Nolan Cockrill for a loss of 10 yards to the AblCh 13Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
95.2%
Logan Burke punt for 3 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AblCh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:1695% → 96%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
94.8%
Tyrell Robinson run for 10 yds to the AblCh 6 for a 1ST down ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (Kameron Stokes) to the AblCh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.4%
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:1896% → 98%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
96.3%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 3 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
96.3%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+41
96.2%
Jemel Jones run for 41 yds to the AblCh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
96.3%
Sandon McCoy run for 7 yds to the AblCh 3Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.0%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:082% → 3%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
97.6%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Kobe Clark for 12 yds to the AblCh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+55
97.5%
Lionell McConnell run for 55 yds to the Army 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
97.3%
Peyton Mansell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 14 Peyton Mansell fumbled, recovered by AblCh Jermiah Dobbins , return for 2 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
97.4%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Jordan Brooks-WessSimilar
Q2 10:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
97.6%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Jordan Brooks-Wess, broken up by Julian McDuffieSimilar
Q2 7:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
97.5%
Blair Zepeda 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.5%
Anthony Adkins run for 3 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
97.5%
Jemel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 27Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
97.4%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 22Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
97.4%
Jemel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-3
97.3%
Zach Harding punt for 43 yds , Jordan Brooks-Wess returns for a loss of 3 yards to the AblCh 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
97.4%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Lionell McConnell for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 31Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+3
97.6%
Jordan Brooks-Wess run for 3 yds to the AblCh 34Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+6
97.5%
Peyton Mansell run for 6 yds to the AblCh 40Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 2
OWN 40
-5
97.5%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (Kage Hendrix) to the AblCh 35Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
97.6%
Logan Burke punt for 45 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for no gain to the Army 20 Tyrell Robinson fumbled, recovered by Army Tyrell RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:4498% → 98%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.0%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
98.0%
Sandon McCoy run for 6 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
97.9%
Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
98.0%
Sandon McCoy run for 1 yd to the Army 33Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-2
98.0%
Tyrell Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 31Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+5
98.2%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Artice Hobbs IV for 5 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
98.2%
Zach Harding punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jordan Brooks-Wess at the AblCh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:352% → 2%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
97.7%
Tyrese White run for 1 yd to the AblCh 13Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-3
97.8%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Darius Lewis for a loss of 3 yards to the AblCh 10Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 12
OWN 10
0
97.9%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Lionell McConnellSimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 12
OWN 10
0
97.9%
Logan Burke punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Robinson at the AblCh 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2699% → 98%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
98.7%
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds to the AblCh 42Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+5
98.7%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds to the AblCh 37Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 2
OPP 37
-8
98.7%
Jemel Jones sacked by Kadron Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the AblCh 45Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 10
OPP 45
+9
98.3%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Brandon Walters for 9 yds to the AblCh 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the AblCh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3398% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
98.2%
Tyrell Robinson run for 35 yds to the AblCh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
98.3%
Jemel Jones run for 7 yds to the AblCh 33Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+33
99.5%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Michael Roberts for 33 yds for a TD (A. Hobbs IV Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Tyrese White for 2 yds to the AblCh 27Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
99.5%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 11 yds Lionell McConnell fumbled, forced by Marquel Broughton, recovered by AblCh Dax Neece for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.5%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Jordan Brooks-WessSimilar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
99.5%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Dax Neece for 11 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
99.5%
Peyton Mansell sacked by Cedrick Cunningham for a loss of 7 yards to the AblCh 48Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 17
OWN 48
+7
99.5%
Conrad Perry run for 7 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
99.5%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Jermiah Dobbins, broken up by Andre Carter IISimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
99.5%
Logan Burke punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Robinson at the Army 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
99.6%
Jemel Jones run for 2 yds to the Army 11Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+1
99.7%
Cade Barnard run for 1 yd to the Army 12Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+3
99.7%
Cade Barnard run for 3 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
99.6%
Zach Harding punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Brooks-Wess at the AblCh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 4:040% → 2%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.7%
Tyrese White run for 5 yds to the AblCh 44Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
99.7%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Jordan Brooks-WessSimilar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+5
99.7%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Jordan Brooks-Wess for 5 yds to the AblCh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
99.7%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Jordan Brooks-Wess for 9 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+9
99.7%
Darius Lewis run for 9 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
99.6%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Kobe Clark for 13 yds to the Army 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
99.6%
Tyrese White run for 10 yds to the Army 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
99.7%
Jermiah Dobbins run for 8 yds to the Army 2Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.3%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Kobe Clark for 2 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Blair Zepeda PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:1598% → 100%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
98.2%
Jemel Jones run for 2 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+17
98.1%
Jemel Jones run for 17 yds to the AblCh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
99.9%
Jemel Jones run for 49 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Lionell McConnell, broken up by Malkelm MorrisonSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
99.8%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 12 yds to the AblCh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.8%
Darius Lewis run for 5 yds to the AblCh 43Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-2
99.8%
Jermiah Dobbins run for a loss of 2 yards to the AblCh 41Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Peyton Mansell pass incomplete to Tyrese WhiteSimilar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Logan Burke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Robinson at the Army 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:25100% → 100%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 5 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+19
99.9%
Tyrell Robinson run for 19 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST down ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.9%
Tyrell Robinson run for 6 yds to the AblCh 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+7
99.9%
Jemel Jones run for 7 yds to the AblCh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Jemel Jones pass incomplete to Sean EckertSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+10
99.9%
Jemel Jones run for 10 yds to the AblCh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
99.9%
Anthony Adkins run for 10 yds to the AblCh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
99.9%
Anthony Adkins run for 2 yds to the AblCh 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-4
99.9%
Artice Hobbs IV run for a loss of 4 yards to the AblCh 23Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 12
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Jemel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
99.9%
Quinn Maretzki 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:350% → 1%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 4 yds to the AblCh 24Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
99.9%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 10 yds to the AblCh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
99.9%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 20 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.9%
Tyrese White run for 1 yd to the Army 45Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+45
99.3%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Kobe Clark for 45 yds for a TD (Blair Zepeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:5899% → 100%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
99.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 7 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
99.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+50
99.4%
Tyrell Robinson run for 50 yds to the AblCh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
99.5%
Anthony Adkins run for 4 yds to the AblCh 11Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+6
99.5%
Jemel Jones run for 6 yds to the AblCh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.5%
Anthony Adkins run for 2 yds to the AblCh 3Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.5%
Jemel Jones run for no gain to the AblCh 3Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Anthony Adkins run for 3 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 24TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Tyrese White run for no gain to the AblCh 26Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+13
100.0%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 13 yds to the AblCh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
99.8%
Peyton Mansell pass complete to Branden Hohenstein for 61 yds for a TD (Blair Zepeda PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 25TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:24100% → 100%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the AblCh 43Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Tyson Riley run for 5 yds to the AblCh 38Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
99.9%
Tyson Riley run for 1 yd to the AblCh 37Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+9
99.8%
Anthony Adkins run for 9 yds to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
100.0%
Anthony Adkins run for 28 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:140% → 0%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
100.0%
Stone Earle pass complete to Taelyn Williams for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
50
+3
100.0%
Stone Earle pass complete to Lionell McConnell for 3 yds to the Army 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:15
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q3 2:56
Jemel Jones run for 49 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q2 12:37
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Landon Salyers PAT MISSED)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com