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EKU

Eastern Kentucky 29 at Troy 31

TROY
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadEKU aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreEKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:06 · Parker McKinney run for 3 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Pregame prior+22.5Home team on offense+11.7Garbage-time factor+2.3Score differential+5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Blowout margin+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:49: Alonzo Booth run for 12 yds for a TD, (Alexander Woznick KICK) — EKU win probability +6.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: EKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:35: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 22 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +4.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 5:50: Alexander Woznick 25 yd FG GOOD — EKU win probability +12.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: EKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:21: Parker McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — EKU win probability +62.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: EKU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Evan Legassey 47 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +60.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 5EKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 11
  1. Q1 12:53EKU 4th & 16 at EKU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:27TROY 4th & 15 at TROY 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:35EKU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:37EKU 4th & 2 at TROY 2, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:37TROY 4th & 9 at EKU 40, up 4
    Close callPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:03EKU 4th & 28 at EKU 47, down 4
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:35EKU 4th & 2 at TROY 41, down 11
    Close callPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−1.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:55TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:06EKU 4th & 1 at TROY 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−1.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:41EKU 4th & 3 at TROY 4, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:57EKU 4th & 5 at TROY 45, down 8
    Close callPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−1.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:28TROY 4th & 8 at EKU 40, up 8
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:35EKU 4th & 13 at EKU 17, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:50EKU 4th & 3 at TROY 8, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.9
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−8.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:54TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 48, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:18EKU 4th & 9 at EKU 33, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.9%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4EKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:53TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:38EKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:16TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:49EKU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:26TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:35TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:21EKU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
7 plays · 91 yds · 2:0797% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+37
97.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 37 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
97.4%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+3
97.4%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the EKent 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+25
97.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 25 yds to the EKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
97.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the EKent 16Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+16
97.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to AJ Lewis for 16 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
97.2%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the EKent 16Similar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+3
97.2%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jackson Beerman for 3 yds to the EKent 19Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 12
OWN 19
-2
97.2%
Alonzo Booth run for a loss of 2 yards to the EKent 17Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 14
OWN 17
+5
97.2%
McKINNEY, P. middle pass complete to JONES, Jacquez for 11 yards to the EKU28, out-of-bounds (Robertson, K.J.), PENALTY TROY offside (Jibunor, R.) 5 yards to the EKU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-7
97.2%
Parker McKinney sacked by Richard Jibunor and Will Choloh for a loss of 7 yards to the EKent 15Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 16
OWN 15
+43
97.2%
Thomas Cook punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 20 , Tez Johnson returns for 43 yds to the TROY 42 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding (53 Yards) to the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
97.0%
Gunnar Watson run for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
97.0%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
97.0%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
97.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for no gain to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+19
97.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 19 yds to the EKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
97.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 4 yds to the EKent 44Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
97.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Bret ClarkSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-9
97.0%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Matthew Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
96.9%
Kyle Coale punt for 49 yds, downed at the EKent 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 96 yds · 0:453% → 4%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
96.6%
Alonzo Booth run for 6 yds to the EKent 10Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+90
96.0%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 90 yds for a TD, (Alexander Woznick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:2296% → 96%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
96.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 27 yds to the EKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
96.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the EKent 25Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+5
96.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds Tez Johnson fumbled, forced by Eli Hairston, recovered by Troy Tez Johnson for a 1ST down , return for no gain to the EKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-8
96.2%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Allante Leapheart for a loss of 8 yards to the EKent 30Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+16
96.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 16 yds to the EKent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
96.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 2 yds to the EKent 9Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 18
OPP 30
+3
96.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the EKent 27Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
96.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:414% → 4%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.0%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Jacquez JonesSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
96.0%
Alonzo Booth run for 11 yds to the EKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.8%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Jackson BeermanSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
95.8%
Kyeandre Magloire run for 7 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+2
95.8%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jackson Beerman for 2 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-5
95.8%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Payton Collins) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 6
50
0
95.9%
Phillip Richards punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
95.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+2
95.7%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 12
-18
95.7%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted Kmare Carey return for 18 yds to the Troy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 8FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:345% → 6%
Q1 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.2%
Alonzo Booth run for no gain to the Troy 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
95.1%
Parker McKinney run for 1 yd to the Troy 2Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
95.3%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jacquez Jones for no gain to the Troy 2Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
94.5%
Alexander Woznick 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 45 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
94.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
94.6%
Watson, Gunnar sideline pass incomplete to McClain, Khalil, PENALTY EKU pass interference (LEAPHEART, A.) 15 yards to the TROY41, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie Todd, broken up by Davion RossSimilar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+18
94.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 18 yds to the EKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
94.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez Johnson, broken up by Kmare CareySimilar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
94.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 1 yd to the EKent 40Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
94.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 9
OPP 40
+10
94.6%
Kyle Coale punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EKent 15 , Allante Leapheart returns for 10 yds to the EKent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 10TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 6:456% → 13%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
94.2%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Keyion DixonSimilar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
94.3%
Alonzo Booth run for 1 yd to the EKent 16Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+14
94.4%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jacquez Jones for 14 yds to the EKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
94.1%
Alonzo Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the EKent 29Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
94.2%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Keyion DixonSimilar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+15
94.3%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 15 yds to the EKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
93.9%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Kyeandre Magloire for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 4
50
-1
93.8%
Alonzo Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the EKent 49Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+8
93.8%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Ethan Bednarcyzk for 8 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
93.8%
Parker McKinney run for 6 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
93.7%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Jackson BeermanSimilar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+20
93.8%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 20 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
93.6%
Alonzo Booth run for 5 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
87.3%
Alonzo Booth run for 12 yds for a TD, (Alexander Woznick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:2389% → 92%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+27
89.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
50
+22
90.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 22 yds to the EKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
90.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the EKent 30 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Troy Kimani Vidal , return for 5 yds to the EKent 30Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+23
90.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 23 yds to the EKent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
90.6%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the EKent 1Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.6%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the EKent 1Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 19 yds · 2:239% → 9%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
91.5%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jacquez Jones for 10 yds to the EKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
91.2%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Micah Manning for 7 yds to the EKent 45Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+10
90.7%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 10 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
90.5%
Parker McKinney run for 5 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+5
90.5%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jacquez Jones for 5 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
90.1%
Alonzo Booth run for 3 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-12
90.1%
Parker McKinney sacked by Navy Harris for a loss of 12 yards to the Troy 44 EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 19
OPP 44
-9
91.5%
Parker McKinney sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 9 yards to the EKent 47Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 28
OWN 47
0
90.9%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Keyion DixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 13INT
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:0010% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
89.9%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Jacquez JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+15
90.0%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 15 yds to the EKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
89.5%
Alonzo Booth run for 1 yd to the EKent 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+15
89.6%
McKINNEY, P. sideline pass incomplete to JONES, Jacquez, PENALTY TROY personal foul (Griffin, Elgin) 15 yards to the TROY48, 1ST DOWN EKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
88.5%
Alonzo Booth run for 1 yd to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+13
88.6%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jackson Beerman for 13 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
88.1%
Parker McKinney pass intercepted, touchback. Terence Dunlap return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:3389% → 94%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
88.6%
TROY Penalty, personal foul (Terence Dunlap) to the Troy 10Similar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+18
88.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 18 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
88.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
89.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tray EaffordSimilar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+5
89.1%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
89.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 22 yds to the EKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
90.0%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the EKent 36Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+14
89.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 14 yds to the EKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
94.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 22 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Jacquez Jones, broken up by Craig SlocumSimilar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.3%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Micah Manning for 3 yds to the EKent 28Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
93.5%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Ethan Bradds for 8 yds to the EKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.0%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Jackson BeermanSimilar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
93.1%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jackson Beerman for 9 yds to the EKent 45Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
92.7%
Parker McKinney run for 6 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
92.4%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Kyeandre Magloire for 7 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
92.2%
Parker McKinney run for 2 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-1
92.3%
Alonzo Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
92.9%
Phillip Richards punt for 34 yds, downed at the Troy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
93.3%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 10
-1
93.3%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 9Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+5
92.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 5 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
92.5%
Kyle Coale punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Allante Leapheart at the Troy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:258% → 10%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
91.7%
Parker McKinney run for no gain to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
91.8%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Keyion Dixon, broken up by Terence DunlapSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+9
92.3%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jacquez Jones for 9 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+3
92.4%
Parker McKinney run for 3 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
91.2%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jacquez Jones for 23 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
91.0%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Jackson BeermanSimilar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
91.0%
Alonzo Booth run for 3 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+4
90.8%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jackson Beerman for 4 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
90.1%
Alexander Woznick 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0092% → 93%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
92.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+10
92.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
93.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 2 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+12
93.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 12 yds to the EKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
93.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for a loss of 1 yard Jamontez Woods fumbled, forced by Nic Cheeley, recovered by EKent Elijah Taylor , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
50
+4
88.9%
Parker McKinney run for 4 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
88.9%
Alonzo Booth run for 1 yd to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
89.1%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Jacquez Jones, broken up by Terence DunlapSimilar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
90.3%
Phillip Richards punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Kaylon Geiger at the Troy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
91.6%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 18Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+11
91.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 11 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
91.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
91.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+29
91.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 29 yds to the EKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
93.0%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the EKent 40Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
92.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez Johnson, broken up by Kaleb LundySimilar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
92.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
91.7%
Kyle Coale punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.3%
Keyion Dixon pass incomplete to Malik Owens, broken up by O'shai FletcherSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
91.5%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Alonzo Booth for 2 yds to the EKent 22Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-5
92.0%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Payton Collins) to the EKent 17Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
92.1%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Keyion DixonSimilar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+16
92.5%
Thomas Cook punt for 49 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 16 yds to the Troy 33 TROY Penalty, IB (15 Yards) to the Troy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.6%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
92.5%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted Elijah Taylor return for no gain to the Troy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 23FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4313% → 24%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
86.8%
TROY Penalty, personal foul (Jake Andrews) to the Troy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
86.5%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jacquez Jones for 9 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 1
OPP 6
-5
86.5%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Ethan Bradds) to the Troy 11Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
86.5%
Parker McKinney run for 3 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
87.8%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Keyion Dixon, broken up by O'shai FletcherSimilar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
75.9%
Alexander Woznick 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:5687% → 91%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
87.2%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
87.5%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+5
87.1%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
88.6%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
88.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-1
88.3%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
90.6%
Kyle Coale punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Allante Leapheart at the EKent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:2814% → 86%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
85.8%
Parker McKinney run for 7 yds to the EKent 27Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
83.7%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 5 yds to the EKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
84.4%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Jacquez Jones, broken up by KJ RobertsonSimilar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
85.2%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Alonzo Booth for 1 yd to the EKent 33Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+5
86.4%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jacquez Jones for 5 yds to the EKent 38Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 4
OWN 38
-5
85.5%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Jordan Johnson) to the EKent 33Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+37
87.6%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 37 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
77.4%
Parker McKinney pass incomplete to Keyion DixonSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+26
77.5%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jackson Beerman for 26 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
76.6%
Parker McKinney run for no gain to the Troy 4Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
13.8%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26FG
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:1436% → 96%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
36.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 15 yds to the EKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
35.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 15 yds to the EKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+47
96.0%
Evan Legassey 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:21
Parker McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-62.7
FG · Q4 0:00
Evan Legassey 47 yd FG GOOD
+60.2
FG · Q4 5:50
Alexander Woznick 25 yd FG GOOD
-12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com