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CARK

Central Arkansas 35 at UAB 45

UAB
2020 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2020 · Legion Field
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Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLEFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:34 · Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Pregame prior+15.1Home team on offense+12.7Score differential+4.0Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:31: Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 10 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +4.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:33: Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 15 yds for a TD (Chandler Caughron KICK) — CARK win probability +5.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q2 1:21: Bryson Lucero pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 2 yds for a TD Trea Shropshire fumbled, recovered by CArk Robert Rochell , return for 35 yds (Chandler Caughron KICK) — CARK win probability +4.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:41: Lucious Stanley run for 8 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +6.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:32: Breylin Smith pass complete to Sam Camargo for 6 yds for a TD (Chandler Caughron KICK) — CARK win probability +2.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:18CARK 4th & 13 at UAB 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:03UAB 4th & 2 at CARK 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    88.7%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:10CARK 4th & 9 at CARK 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:32CARK 4th & 3 at UAB 27, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.3%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:38UAB 4th & 5 at UAB 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:53CARK 4th & 8 at CARK 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:38UAB 4th & 1 at CARK 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.9%−1.0
    86% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−3.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:38CARK 4th & 2 at UAB 44, down 21
    Close callPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:34UAB 4th & 8 at CARK 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:58CARK 4th & 8 at CARK 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:07UAB 4th & 2 at CARK 5, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.0%−1.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−7.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:34CARK 4th & 7 at CARK 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:51UAB 4th & 19 at UAB 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−2.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:12UAB 4th & 14 at UAB 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:03UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:46UAB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:03CARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:50UAB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:31UAB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:33CARK Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:41UAB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:12UAB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:43CARK Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:32CARK Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CARKDrive 1MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:328% → 9%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
92.2%
Kierre Crossley run for 6 yds to the CArk 33Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+9
92.0%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 9 yds to the CArk 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+34
91.9%
Kierre Crossley run for 34 yds to the UAB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
91.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 28Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+1
91.7%
Kierre Crossley run for 1 yd to the UAB 27Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
91.5%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Jarrod BarnesSimilar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+45
91.5%
Hayden Ray 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 5:1292% → 91%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
91.5%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 26Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+5
91.4%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+15
91.3%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Austin Watkins for 15 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
91.4%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the CArk 48Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+23
91.3%
Spencer Brown run for 23 yds to the CArk 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
91.2%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the CArk 24Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
91.1%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the CArk 19Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
90.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 5 yds to the CArk 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
90.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Hayden PittmanSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+8
90.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Spencer Brown for 8 yds to the CArk 6Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
90.4%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the CArk 6Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
91.2%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 6 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:459% → 9%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
91.1%
Kierre Crossley run for 1 yd to the CArk 20Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
90.9%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Dwight Blakey, broken up by Kristopher MollSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
91.0%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Dwight BlakeySimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
91.0%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:2491% → 92%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
91.2%
UAB Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UAB 30Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
90.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 28Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+4
90.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Austin Watkins for 4 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+9
90.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 9 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
90.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Austin Watkins for 5 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+6
90.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 6 yds to the CArk 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
90.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 28 yds to the CArk 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
90.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to A.J. DavisSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
90.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Austin Watkins for 15 yds to the CArk 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.4%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:088% → 9%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
91.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Christian Richmond for 35 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
91.1%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-4
91.0%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Kierre Crossley for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 44Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+10
91.4%
Smith, Breylin pass complete to Richmond, Christian for 11 yards to the UAB33, PENALTY UAB holding 10 yards to the UAB34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CENTRALARK.Similar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
90.8%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
90.8%
Kierre Crossley run for 7 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
90.8%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Christian Richmond, broken up by Kristopher MollSimilar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
91.0%
Hayden Ray 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1392% → 92%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
92.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Trea ShropshireSimilar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-34
91.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass intercepted Malik Wilson return for 34 yds to the UAB 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 7TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:059% → 12%
Q1 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
90.6%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q1 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.5%
Cameron Myers run for 4 yds for a TD (Hayden Ray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2091% → 90%
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
90.6%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the UAB 35Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
90.6%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 35Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
90.3%
Tyler Johnston III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+3
89.9%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 53 yds , Tyler Hudson returns for 3 yds to the CArk 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3711% → 10%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
89.3%
Cameron Myers run for 2 yds to the CArk 17Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
89.2%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
89.5%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Christian RichmondSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
89.6%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 38 yds, downed at the UAB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5591% → 93%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
90.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 13 yds to the CArk 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
90.7%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the CArk 36Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+16
90.6%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 16 yds to the CArk 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
90.7%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the CArk 18Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
93.4%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 18 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 11FUMBLE
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:559% → 10%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
90.7%
Kierre Crossley run for no gain to the CArk 42Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
90.8%
Kierre Crossley run for 4 yds to the CArk 46Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+6
90.8%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete to Barnes, Jarrod, PENALTY UAB pass interference (Turner, Dy'jonn) 6 yards to the UAB48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CENTRALARK.Similar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
90.5%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
90.7%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+13
90.7%
Kierre Crossley run for 13 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
90.1%
Kierre Crossley run for 8 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+5
89.9%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 5 yds to the UAB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:5093% → 97%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
93.0%
Johnston III, Tyler pass incomplete to Johnson, Rob, PENALTY CENTRALARK personal foul 15 yards to the CENTRALARK48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UAB.Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
93.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Austin Watkins for 16 yds to the CArk 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
93.1%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the CArk 26Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+5
93.0%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the CArk 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
93.1%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the CArk 21Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
93.1%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Austin WatkinsSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+9
92.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 9 yds to the CArk 12Similar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
92.4%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the CArk 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
96.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 10 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 13FUMBLE
12 plays · 31 yds · 2:525% → 4%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.5%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 10 yds to the CArk 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
95.1%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Jack Short for 3 yds to the CArk 38Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-5
95.4%
Breylin Smith sacked by Nikia Eason Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the CArk 33Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+15
95.8%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete to Perkinson, Mitchell, PENALTY UAB roughing passer 15 yards to the CENTRALARK48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CENTRALARK.Similar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
95.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Cameron Myers for 4 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
95.3%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Christian Richmond for 4 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
95.4%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Mitchell PerkinsonSimilar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 2
OPP 44
-2
95.6%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 27 yds , Myron Mitchell returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 15 Myron Mitchell fumbled, recovered by CArkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 14TD
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
90.1%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 15 yds for a TD (Chandler Caughron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:4493% → 88%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for no gain to the UAB 20Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
92.7%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Austin WatkinsSimilar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+13
92.6%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Lucious Stanley for 13 yds to the UAB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+35
88.2%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 2 yds for a TD Trea Shropshire fumbled, recovered by CArk Robert Rochell , return for 35 yds (Chandler Caughron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16END OF HALF
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:0988% → 89%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.1%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for no gain to the UAB 25Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+13
87.7%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 23 for a 1ST down CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
88.1%
Spencer Brown run for 17 yds to the CArk 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
88.8%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Myron MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
88.6%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Rob Johnson for 11 yds to the CArk 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
89.0%
Bryson Lucero run for 3 yds to the CArk 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:1687% → 86%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.3%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
87.4%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 31Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
86.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Austin Watkins for 6 yds to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
87.4%
Spencer Brown run for 18 yds to the CArk 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
87.9%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the CArk 39Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
87.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Gerrit PrinceSimilar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-4
87.6%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Myron Mitchell for a loss of 4 yards to the CArk 43Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
86.3%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tyler Hudson at the CArk 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3214% → 13%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
86.0%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Kierre CrossleySimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+3
86.1%
Breylin Smith run for 3 yds to the CArk 13Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-1
86.6%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 12Similar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 8
OWN 12
0
86.9%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 41 yds, downed at the UAB 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 6:4888% → 89%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
88.4%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the CArk 49Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
88.5%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 13 yds to the CArk 36 UAB Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CArk 46Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+1
88.4%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the CArk 45Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
88.4%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the CArk 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
88.9%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Austin Watkins for 11 yds to the CArk 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
89.0%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 32Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+9
88.9%
Myron Mitchell run for 9 yds to the CArk 23Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+10
88.2%
Spencer Brown run for 10 yds to the CArk 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
88.9%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the CArk 7Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+2
88.6%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the CArk 5Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
87.8%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the CArk 5Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+23
89.2%
Matthew Quinn 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2112% → 11%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
88.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 6 yds to the CArk 39Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-3
87.3%
Breylin Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the CArk 36 Breylin Smith fumbled, recovered by CArk Breylin SmithSimilar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
88.5%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Jarrod BarnesSimilar
Q3 1:34
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
89.4%
Seren Hughes-Ford punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:3290% → 89%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
89.5%
Brown Jr., Jermaine rush for 21 yards to the UAB46, PENALTY UAB holding 10 yards to the UAB15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-5
89.4%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 10Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 25
OWN 10
0
89.6%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Rob JohnsonSimilar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 25
OWN 10
+6
89.0%
Lucious Stanley run for 6 yds to the UAB 16Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+53
88.6%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 53 yds , Tyler Hudson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 30 Tyler Hudson fumbled, recovered by UABSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:0491% → 98%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
91.1%
Spencer Brown run for 9 yds to the CArk 21Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+1
90.7%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the CArk 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
90.6%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 12 yds to the CArk 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
97.5%
Lucious Stanley run for 8 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 23INT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:134% → 3%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Christian Richmond for 4 yds to the CArk 29Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
96.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 13 yds to the CArk 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
96.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 5 yds to the CArk 47Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
96.4%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+9
96.5%
Breylin Smith run for 9 yds to the UAB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-11
96.6%
Breylin Smith sacked by Nikia Eason Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the CArk 45Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 21
OWN 45
-19
97.0%
Breylin Smith pass intercepted Keondre Swoopes return for 19 yds to the CArk 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 24TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:4898% → 100%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
97.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the CArk 39Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
97.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the CArk 37Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+7
97.6%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Rob Johnson for 7 yds to the CArk 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 25TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:221% → 4%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.0%
UAB Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the CArk 40Similar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+17
99.0%
Cameron Myers run for 17 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 5 yds to the UAB 38Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
99.1%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+10
99.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 10 yds to the UAB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
99.0%
Cameron Myers run for 4 yds to the UAB 24Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+16
99.1%
Breylin Smith run for 16 yds to the UAB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 8 yds for a TD (Chandler Caughron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 26Uncategorized
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:2398% → 99%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.9%
Lucious Stanley run for 5 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
98.0%
Lucious Stanley run for 6 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
98.3%
Lucious Stanley run for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 32Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+2
98.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-2
98.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 32Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 14
OWN 32
+51
98.8%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Hudson at the CENTRALARK 27 CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the CArk 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 27TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 2:332% → 5%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
98.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Mitchell Perkinson for 7 yds to the CArk 24Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+18
98.3%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tobias Enlow for 18 yds to the CArk 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.3%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tobias EnlowSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
98.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tobias Enlow for 4 yds to the CArk 46Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+17
98.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tobias Enlow for 17 yds to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
98.0%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
98.0%
Cameron Myers run for 5 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+19
97.9%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Cameron Myers for 7 yds to the UAB 25 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (12 Yards) to the UAB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
97.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tobias Enlow for 7 yds to the UAB 6Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
94.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Sam Camargo for 6 yds for a TD (Chandler Caughron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:41
Lucious Stanley run for 8 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q2 2:33
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 15 yds for a TD (Chandler Caughron KICK)
-5.5
TD · Q2 5:31
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 10 yds for a TD (Matthew Quinn KICK)
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com