2020 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2020 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadEKU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreEKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:13 · Alonzo Booth run for a loss of 2 yards to the EKent 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:19: Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 22 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +0.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q1 8:04: Brenden Knox run for 8 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +0.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:01: Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 21 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:02: Grant Wells pass complete to Garet Morrell for 2 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:07: Grant Wells pass complete to Jaron Woodyard for 42 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3EKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
- Q1 9:35EKU 4th & 23 at EKU 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q1 4:06EKU 4th & 6 at MRSH 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.4%40% to convertField goal6.4%−0.149% to makePunt6.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 12:07MRSH 4th & 2 at EKU 23, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.0%57% to convertField goal95.7%−0.270% to makePunt94.6%−1.4average punt
- Q2 10:02MRSH 4th & 2 at EKU 2, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.5%48% to convertField goal96.2%−0.494% to makePunt94.7%−1.9average punt
- Q2 7:44EKU 4th & 2 at EKU 29, down 28Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%−0.3average punt
- Q2 6:07MRSH 4th & 6 at EKU 6, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.3%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call98.4%91% to makePunt97.2%−1.2average punt
- Q2 3:13EKU 4th & 1 at EKU 44, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:41EKU 4th & 5 at EKU 24, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 12:09EKU 4th & 3 at MRSH 44, down 38Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%52% to convertField goal0.4%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call0.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:30EKU 4th & 8 at MRSH 37, down 45Close callKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%35% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%−<0.140% to makePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 12:24EKU 4th & 3 at EKU 42, down 52Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:16EKU 4th & 1 at EKU 34, down 59Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 12:19MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:04MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:01MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:02MRSH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:07MRSH Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:04MRSH Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:43MRSH Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:02MRSH Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMRSHDrive 1TD9 plays · 72 yds · 2:3195% → 95%
Q1 14:23
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
95.0%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+17
94.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Broc Thompson for 17 yds to the EKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
94.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 9 yds to the EKent 31Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
94.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 22 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · -13 yds · 2:095% → 6%
MRSHDrive 3TD5 plays · 70 yds · 1:1594% → 95%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
94.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Broc Thompson for 26 yds to the EKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
94.5%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Gabe Fletcher) to the EKent 39Similar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 5
OPP 39
+21
94.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Devin Miller for 21 yds to the EKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 4DOWNS10 plays · 43 yds · 3:385% → 6%
Q1 7:12
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+8
94.8%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 8 yds to the EKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+28
94.7%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jackson Beerman for 28 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
94.6%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 4 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 6
OPP 33
-2
94.5%
Parker McKinney sacked by Tavante Beckett for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5TD6 plays · 65 yds · 1:5895% → 96%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
94.9%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Marsh 40Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+45
94.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Garet Morrell for 45 yds to the EKent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-5
95.0%
Grant Wells sacked by Darrian Baker for a loss of 5 yards to the EKent 21Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+21
96.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 21 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 6INT3 plays · 1 yds · 0:364% → 4%
MRSHDrive 7TD15 plays · 72 yds · 5:5896% → 98%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
96.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 15 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+4
96.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 4 yds to the EKent 23Similar
Q2 10:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Garet Morrell for 2 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:012% → 1%
MRSHDrive 9FG7 plays · 49 yds · 1:3199% → 99%
Q2 7:27
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+47
98.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 47 yds to the EKent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 10DOWNS7 plays · 17 yds · 2:371% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11TD1 play · 42 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
99.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jaron Woodyard for 42 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:131% → 0%
MRSHDrive 13END OF HALF8 plays · 22 yds · 1:1599% → 100%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Broc Thompson for 9 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
99.4%
Grant Wells sacked by Jaylen Herrud for a loss of 9 yards to the Marsh 30Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 19
OWN 35
+20
99.4%
Brenden Knox run for 5 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST down EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 2:461% → 1%
Q3 13:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+22
99.5%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 22 yds to the EKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+2
99.5%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Jacquez Jones for 2 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
99.5%
Thomas Cook punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15TD12 plays · 90 yds · 4:58100% → 100%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Broc Thompson for 9 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Broc Thompson for 6 yds to the EKent 47Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
99.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 12 yds to the EKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 16MISSED FG9 plays · 38 yds · 3:270% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17TD7 plays · 63 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
Q3 1:55
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+13
99.8%
Luke Zban pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 13 yds to the EKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:560% → 0%
MRSHDrive 19TD15 plays · 75 yds · 8:10100% → 100%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Knowledge McDaniel run for 10 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Luke Zban pass complete to Hayden Hagler for 5 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.9%
Luke Zban pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 1 yd to the Marsh 47Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+8
99.9%
Luke Zban pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 8 yds to the EKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
100.0%
Luke Zban pass complete to Stone Scarcelle for 8 yds to the EKent 11Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Luke Zban pass complete to Amir Richardson for 3 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:180% → 0%
MRSHDrive 21Uncategorized4 plays · 32 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q4 1:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+17
100.0%
Knowledge McDaniel run for 17 yds to the EKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:02
Grant Wells pass complete to Garet Morrell for 2 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q1 2:01
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 21 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q1 8:04
Brenden Knox run for 8 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)
+0.6