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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreTA&M score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:16 · Anders Carlson 24 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:36: Bo Nix 5 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +9.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:24: Kellen Mond 1 Yd Run (Seth Small Kick) — TA&M win probability +11.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:36: Bo Nix 3 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +15.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:31: Jalen Wydermyer 20 Yd pass from Kellen Mond (Seth Small Kick) — TA&M win probability +25.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:12: Ainias Smith 4 Yd Run (Seth Small Kick) — TA&M win probability +26.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q1 7:59AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 34, down 7Close callPunted · 35.9% before the snapGo for it36.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 3:28TA&M 4th & 7 at AUB 37, up 7Close callPunted · 64.7% before the snapGo for it64.9%37% to convertField goal64.7%−0.240% to makePuntTheir call64.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 14:11AUB 4th & 5 at TA&M 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snapGo for it35.9%−0.240% to convertField goalTheir call36.2%75% to makePunt32.1%−4.1average punt
- Q3 7:54TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snapGo for it44.4%−1.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.9%average punt
- Q3 4:16AUB 4th & 6 at TA&M 7, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snapGo for it57.9%−0.332% to convertField goalTheir call58.3%91% to makePunt47.3%−11.0average punt
- Q4 11:54AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 32, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it40.0%−4.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.4%average punt
- Q4 6:41AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 28, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it12.5%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.5%average punt
- Q4 1:09TA&M 4th & 1 at AUB 16, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snapGo for it95.0%71% to convertField goalTheir call93.9%−1.181% to makePunt90.2%−4.8average punt
- Q4 0:16AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 48, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.1%32% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.8%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 8:42TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.1%97% to makeGo for two63.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:36AUB Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.0%97% to makeGo for two49.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:24TA&M Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.1%97% to makeGo for two61.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:36AUB Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.0%97% to makeGo for two53.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:31TA&M Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.1%97% to makeGo for two50.5%−0.745% to convert
- Q4 8:12TA&M Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.8%97% to makeGo for two78.7%−1.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTA&MDrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:1167% → 68%
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
33.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 8 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
33.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 2 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+4
33.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 4 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+6
33.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 6 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
33.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for 5 yds to the Aub 24 Isaiah Spiller fumbled, forced by Zakoby McClain, recovered by TexAM Carson GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3933% → 33%
Q1 7:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
33.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 38 yds · 4:2467% → 67%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
32.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 12 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
32.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 6 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-15
32.2%
Spiller, Isaiah rush for 4 yards to the AUBURN30, PENALTY TEXASAM personal foul 15 yards to the AUBURN49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+12
32.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 12 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
32.7%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Hezekiah Jones, broken up by Nehemiah PritchettSimilar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
33.1%
Nik Constantinou punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Eli Stove at the Aub 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4FG13 plays · 71 yds · 4:0734% → 38%
TA&MDrive 5MISSED FG11 plays · 64 yds · 5:5763% → 63%
AUBDrive 6TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:2537% → 52%
TA&MDrive 7TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0652% → 67%
AUBDrive 8END OF HALF2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1038% → 57%
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
40.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 24 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3649% → 46%
AUBDrive 11FG8 plays · 72 yds · 3:3255% → 65%
Q3 7:08
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
55.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 7 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3939% → 64%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Isaiah Spiller, broken up by Zakoby McClainSimilar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-9
56.3%
Devon Achane run for 6 yds to the Aub 23 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Carson Green) to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+3
61.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Devon Achane for 3 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+15
61.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 15 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2345% → 41%
Q4 11:54
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
41.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14TD7 plays · 77 yds · 3:4257% → 89%
AUBDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2518% → 14%
TA&MDrive 16FG17 plays · 55 yds · 5:2689% → 98%
Q4 5:48
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
10.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jalen Wydermyer, broken up by Jamien SherwoodSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
8.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 4
50
+6
7.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 6 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 23 yds · 0:493% → 3%
Q4 0:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
2.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 7 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
2.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 10 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
3.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (McKinnley Jackson) to the TexAM 48Similar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 5
OPP 48
-7
3.5%
Bo Nix sacked by Aaron Hansford for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:12
Ainias Smith 4 Yd Run (Seth Small Kick)
-26.8
TD · Q4 13:31
Jalen Wydermyer 20 Yd pass from Kellen Mond (Seth Small Kick)
-25.4
TD · Q3 10:36
Bo Nix 3 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)
+15.5