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MSST

Mississippi State 24 at Ole Miss 31

MISS
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:44 · Tucker Day punt for 35 yds, downed at the Miss 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Pregame prior+17.7Home team on offense+7.7Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:44: Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 81 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +6.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:06: Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 11 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +10.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 7:51: Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +22.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 4:48: Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +15.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:08: Brandon Ruiz 25 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +5.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 9 of 10MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:14MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:07MISS 4th & 4 at MSST 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:27MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:16MISS 4th & 1 at MSST 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    74.5%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:37MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:27MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:44MSST 4th & 14 at MSST 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:59MISS 4th & 2 at MSST 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    81.9%−0.8
    77% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:59MISS 4th & 3 at MSST 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−5.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:19MSST 4th & 1 at MISS 13, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−2.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00MISS 4th & 4 at MSST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    77.6%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−5.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:09MSST 4th & 20 at MSST 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−3.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:22MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.1%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:22MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−2.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:53MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:40MISS 4th & 8 at MSST 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−9.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:40MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.3%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:16MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 48, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:08MSST 4th & 7 at MISS 7, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.7%−1.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−3.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:31MISS 4th & 5 at MSST 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%−<0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:03MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:16MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:37MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:44MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:06MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:51MSST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:48MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4624% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
76.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
76.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
75.9%
Reed Bowman punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 64 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
75.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 6 yds to the Miss 34 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+16
75.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 16 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
75.9%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Miss 33 Matt Corral fumbled,Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+53
75.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 53 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
76.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 4 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+2
76.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
76.0%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the MisSt 8Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 4
OPP 8
0
75.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
75.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 5 yds to the MisSt 14 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jaden Walley) to the MisSt 7Similar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 12
OWN 7
+5
75.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Kameron Jones for 5 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+4
75.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 3
OWN 16
-2
75.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+10
75.5%
Reed Bowman punt for 50 yds , Elijah Moore returns for 10 yds to the Miss 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:5375% → 77%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
75.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+7
75.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 7 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+6
75.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 6 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
75.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-10
75.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 7 yards to the MS31 (Collin Duncan;Shawn Preston), PENALTY OM holding (Caleb Warren) 10 yards to the MS48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+48
77.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 48 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5FUMBLE
9 plays · 75 yds · 0:0023% → 24%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
76.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+33
76.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 18 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, illegal helmet contact (Jon Haynes) to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
75.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+7
75.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
75.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+22
75.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 22 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+84
75.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 3 yds Austin Williams fumbled, forced by Tylan Knight, recovered by Miss Deane Leonard , return for 84 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6TD
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:5978% → 82%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
78.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
78.1%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.7%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 0:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.2%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3919% → 25%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
81.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 44 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
80.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 26
+3
79.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 3 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+17
79.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 17 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
75.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
77.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+17
77.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 17 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
78.1%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
77.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
77.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
77.1%
Mac Brown punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
77.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+7
77.3%
Will Rogers run for 7 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
77.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, broken up by Otis ReeseSimilar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
77.9%
Reed Bowman punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:0778% → 82%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
77.7%
Elijah Moore pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 3 yards to the OM30 (Shawn Preston;Aaron Odom), PENALTY OM holding (Kenny Yeboah) 10 yards to the OM17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+2
77.4%
Elijah Moore pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 2 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 18
OWN 19
0
77.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 18
OWN 19
+81
82.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 81 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (Lakia Henry) to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
82.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+12
82.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 12 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
82.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
81.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-6
82.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
83.1%
Tucker Day punt for 35 yds, downed at the Miss 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12DOWNS
15 plays · 71 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
83.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
83.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 8 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+3
82.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 3 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
83.3%
Snoop Conner run for 16 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
84.0%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
84.0%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+16
83.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 16 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
84.1%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
84.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 2
OPP 19
0
83.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+5
83.1%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
84.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
84.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+7
83.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 7 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 3
OPP 7
0
83.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah Moore, broken up by Collin DuncanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
16 plays · 93 yds · 3:0915% → 25%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
84.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+10
84.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 10 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
84.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+29
84.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 29 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
83.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 5 yards to the OM43 (Tylan Knight), PENALTY OM offside 5 yards to the OM43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 5
OPP 43
0
82.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
82.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+9
83.1%
Will Rogers run for 9 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
82.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 12 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
81.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
82.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 9 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
83.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
85.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the Miss 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
75.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 11 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
78.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 13 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 54 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
77.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 11 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+36
78.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 36 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
80.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Kenny YeboahSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
79.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+2
79.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 21
0
78.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Kenny YeboahSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
77.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 8 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+1
76.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 1 yd to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-5
76.8%
J. Marks rush for 1 yard to the MS31 (MoMo Sanogo;Hal Northern), PENALTY MS illegal formation 5 yards to the MS25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+9
77.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 9 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
76.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, broken up by MoMo SanogoSimilar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
76.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 11 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
75.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
75.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for no gain to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-12
76.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 20
OWN 35
0
78.6%
Reed Bowman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
80.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 1 yd to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+5
80.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+2
79.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+7
78.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 7 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
81.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 12 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-9
82.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 45 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Ben Brown) to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 19
OWN 45
-7
80.9%
Matt Corral sacked by Cameron Young for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 26
OWN 38
+3
80.5%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 23
OWN 41
+6
79.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 6 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
78.6%
Mac Brown punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
78.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 5 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-12
77.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 17
OWN 13
0
78.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+13
79.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 13 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
79.6%
Reed Bowman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 4:4682% → 86%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
81.5%
Elijah Moore run for 1 yd to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
81.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+9
82.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
50
+14
83.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 14 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
83.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+6
83.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 6 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+11
82.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
83.7%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+9
83.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 9 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
83.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
87.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 5Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
86.2%
Matt Corral sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 8Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
86.2%
Luke Logan 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4914% → 41%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
84.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for no gain to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
85.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 3 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
85.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
83.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+27
83.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 27 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
81.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+21
81.0%
Will Rogers run for 15 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive holding (Jakorey Hawkins) to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
81.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
81.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to J. Marks, PENALTY OM pass interference (MoMo Sanogo) 5 yards to the OM7, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
59.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 2:5873% → 93%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+31
72.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 31 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
77.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
77.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon Sanders, broken up by Martin EmersonSimilar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+6
76.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-6
77.1%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 16
OPP 42
+9
75.0%
Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+10
76.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 10 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
78.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Kenny Yeboah (Collin Duncan), PENALTY MS pass interference (Collin Duncan) 15 yards to the MS8, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
78.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q4 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 2:408% → 11%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
91.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 21 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
89.9%
Will Rogers sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+7
93.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
91.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath, broken up by Deane LeonardSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 8
OWN 48
+22
92.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 22 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
90.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+20
90.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 20 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
90.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
90.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath, broken up by Deane LeonardSimilar
Q4 2:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
89.4%
Brandon Ruiz 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:3796% → 97%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
95.5%
Elijah Moore run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 9
50
+2
95.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+2
95.5%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
96.5%
Mac Brown punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:187% → 11%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
93.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
93.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin, broken up by Tylan KnightSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+41
93.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 41 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
90.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
91.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 8 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
89.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, broken up by A.J. FinleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:51
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-22.4
TD · Q4 4:48
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
+15.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com