2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:35 · Kai Kroeger punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:52: James Cook run for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +1.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:23: Zamir White run for 22 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +2.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:57: Kevin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +2.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:31: James Cook run for 29 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +5.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:38: Zamir White run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +4.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:26SC 4th & 7 at SC 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snapGo for it10.3%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%average punt
- Q1 4:45SC 4th & 2 at SC 33, down 14Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snapGo for it10.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 13:43UGA 4th & 16 at UGA 29, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snapGo for it88.6%−1.015% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.6%average punt
- Q2 8:23SC 4th & 9 at UGA 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snapGo for it11.2%−0.330% to convertField goalTheir call11.5%72% to makePunt9.8%−1.7average punt
- Q2 2:42SC 4th & 1 at SC 34, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.8%−0.6average punt
- Q2 0:25SC 4th & 6 at UGA 35, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snapGo for it9.1%−0.340% to convertField goalTheir call9.4%45% to makePunt8.6%−0.8average punt
- Q3 12:59SC 4th & 22 at SC 13, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it6.9%−1.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q3 8:35SC 4th & 22 at SC 24, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.3%−1.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q3 4:26UGA 4th & 9 at SC 14, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%84% to makePunt97.9%−0.9average punt
- Q3 1:40SC 4th & 1 at UGA 45, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%70% to convertField goal0.6%−0.325% to makePunt0.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 9:27SC 4th & 3 at UGA 7, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%46% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.191% to makePunt-0.1%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 12:10UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.9%97% to makeGo for two89.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:52UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.1%97% to makeGo for two89.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:23UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.5%97% to makeGo for two91.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:57SC Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.6%97% to makeGo for two10.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:31UGA Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:38UGA Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:53UGA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:27SC Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1TD8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4092% → 91%
Q1 14:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
8.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 5 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
50
+40
8.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 40 yds to the SCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
8.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 6 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:399% → 9%
Q1 10:26
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
9.0%
Kai Kroeger punt for 47 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for 3 yds to the Geo 31 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Block (Matt Landers) to the Geo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD9 plays · 82 yds · 4:1891% → 91%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
9.2%
JT Daniels sacked by Jaylin Dickerson and Rodricus Fitten for a loss of 6 yards to the SCaro 35Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 16
OPP 35
+17
9.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to George Pickens for 17 yds to the SCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+6
9.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to George Pickens for 6 yds to the SCaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:509% → 9%
Q1 4:45
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
9.4%
Kai Kroeger punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5TD5 plays · 78 yds · 1:5891% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6TD9 plays · 65 yds · 2:057% → 10%
UGADrive 7PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:0791% → 90%
SCDrive 8FG13 plays · 57 yds · 5:0910% → 12%
UGADrive 9TD8 plays · 65 yds · 3:2688% → 94%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
11.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to George Pickens for 2 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10MISSED FG18 plays · 40 yds · 4:008% → 11%
UGADrive 11INT3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0894% → 94%
SCDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -12 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-12
10.8%
Luke Doty sacked by Azeez Ojulari for a loss of 12 yards to the SCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 1:518% → 7%
Q3 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-7
7.5%
Luke Doty run for a loss of 7 yards to the SCaro 17 Luke Doty fumbled, recovered by SCaroSimilar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-4
7.4%
Luke Doty sacked by Jaylen Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 13Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+52
7.1%
Kai Kroeger punt for 52 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for 52 yds to the SCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14TD3 plays · 13 yds · 0:5394% → 98%
SCDrive 15PUNT8 plays · -1 yds · 3:001% → 1%
Q3 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.4%
Luke Doty pass complete to Kevin Harris for 9 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-5
1.2%
Luke Doty sacked by Channing Tindall for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 35Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-5
1.1%
Luke Doty sacked by Adam Anderson for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 24 Luke Doty fumbled, forced by Adam Anderson, recovered by SCaro Dylan Wonnum , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 22
OWN 24
0
0.8%
Kai Kroeger punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16FG13 plays · 50 yds · 4:0299% → 98%
SCDrive 17INT9 plays · 32 yds · 3:252% → 1%
Q3 3:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
1.2%
Luke Doty pass complete to Nick Muse for 20 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
1.2%
Luke Doty pass complete to Jalen Brooks for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 43Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-40
1.1%
Luke Doty pass intercepted Tyson Campbell return for 40 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18TD3 plays · 31 yds · 0:5299% → 100%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+31
0.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Arian Smith for 31 yds for a TD GEORGIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 8 (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19TD12 plays · 98 yds · 4:530% → 0%
Q4 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+24
0.3%
Luke Doty pass complete to Nick Muse for 24 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+13
0.2%
Luke Doty pass complete to Nick Muse for 13 yds to the Geo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+7
0.3%
Luke Doty pass complete to Nick Muse for 7 yds for a TD (Parker White PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER14 plays · 67 yds · 8:46100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:31
James Cook run for 29 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-5.3
TD · Q3 11:38
Zamir White run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-4.1
TD · Q2 14:57
Kevin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker White KICK)
+2.7