Try the model
AUB

Auburn 13 at Alabama 42

ALA
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:36 · Charlie Scott punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior+26.2Home team on offense+17.1Score differential+8.3Garbage-time factor+7.3Blowout margin−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:04: John Metchie III 7 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +1.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:24: Jahleel Billingsley 24 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +2.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 10:36: Anders Carlson 45 Yd Field Goal — AUB win probability +1.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:08: DeVonta Smith 58 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:28: Najee Harris 39 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:51AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:23ALA 4th & 15 at AUB 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:01AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:25AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:51AUB 4th & 3 at ALA 30, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.5%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:07AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 45, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:23ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 40, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:36ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 39, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:36AUB 4th & 8 at ALA 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:35AUB 4th & 15 at ALA 39, down 22
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.0%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:37AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 29, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:33ALA 4th & 15 at ALA 20, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:10ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:04ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:24ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:08ALA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:28ALA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:27ALA Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:39AUB Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:546% → 7%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
93.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Aub 10Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+4
93.7%
Shaun Shivers run for 4 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 14
-3
93.5%
Bo Nix sacked by Christopher Allen for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 11Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 8
OWN 11
+11
93.4%
Aidan Marshall punt for 34 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for 11 yds to the Aub 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2293% → 93%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
93.4%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
93.3%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-5
93.2%
Jones, Mac pass complete to Forristall, Miller for 11 yards to the AUBURN23, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal formation 5 yards to the AUBURN39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 15
OPP 39
0
93.0%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
92.9%
Charlie Scott punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Eli Stove at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:197% → 8%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
93.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 14
-4
92.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 10Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+12
92.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 12 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
92.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+11
92.3%
Eli Stove run for 11 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
92.1%
Bo Nix sacked by Christian Barmore for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+6
91.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 6 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
91.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
91.8%
Aidan Marshall punt for 41 yds, fair catch by DeVonta Smith at the Alab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:4592% → 92%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
91.7%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+9
91.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 9 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
91.5%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+66
92.4%
DeVonta Smith 66 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 3:358% → 8%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
92.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
92.2%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete, PENALTY ALABAMA offside 5 yards to the AUBURN24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-1
92.1%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+9
92.2%
Bo Nix run for 9 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
92.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 1 yd to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-10
91.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 19
OWN 23
+4
92.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+3
92.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 3 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 12
OWN 30
+7
92.0%
Aidan Marshall punt for 43 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for 7 yds to the Alab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 1:5692% → 94%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
91.8%
Mac Jones sacked by Big Kat Bryant for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+26
91.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 26 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
92.1%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
92.0%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+5
91.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 36Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+4
91.9%
Mac Jones run for 4 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+25
92.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 25 yds to the Aub 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
94.0%
John Metchie III 7 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:447% → 8%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
93.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 24 Tank Bigsby fumbled, recovered by AubSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+3
93.2%
Bo Nix run for 3 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+10
93.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to J.J. Pegues for 10 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
93.1%
Anthony Schwartz run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+3
93.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+12
93.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 12 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
92.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 9 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
92.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
92.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
92.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
92.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+47
91.6%
Anders Carlson 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2592% → 95%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
92.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 5 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
92.4%
Najee Harris run for 19 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
92.5%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
92.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 3 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
94.9%
Jahleel Billingsley 24 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:086% → 6%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
94.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+6
93.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 6 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
93.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
94.0%
Shaun Shivers run for no gain to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
94.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
94.3%
Aidan Marshall punt for 38 yds, fair catch by DeVonta Smith at the Alab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:3795% → 94%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
94.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+15
94.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 15 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
94.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
94.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
94.6%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie III, broken up by Nehemiah PritchettSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
94.2%
Charlie Scott punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Eli Stove at the Aub 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11INT
9 plays · 45 yds · 1:056% → 6%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
94.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 4 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
94.6%
Shaun Shivers run for 4 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+17
94.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 17 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
94.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+20
94.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 20 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
93.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
93.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shaun ShiversSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
94.0%
Bo Nix pass intercepted Malachi Moore return for no gain to the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
94.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:1995% → 96%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.5%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.5%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
95.9%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
95.8%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
95.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:595% → 7%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
94.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+37
94.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 37 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
93.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
93.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 31Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+3
94.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
92.8%
Anders Carlson 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:2294% → 98%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
93.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 9 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+11
94.1%
Najee Harris run for 11 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
98.1%
DeVonta Smith 58 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:252% → 2%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
97.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 6 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+16
97.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
50
+16
97.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 16 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
97.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 7 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-12
97.3%
Bo Nix sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 15
OPP 39
0
98.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 15
OPP 39
+56
98.1%
Anders Carlson 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:0298% → 100%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
98.3%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
98.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 4 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
98.3%
Mac Jones run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
50
+11
98.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 11 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.8%
Najee Harris 39 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:430% → 0%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to John Samuel ShenkerSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by DeVonta Smith at the Alab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 5:03100% → 100%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.8%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
99.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 2 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+13
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 13 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Mac Jones run for 4 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+9
99.8%
DeVonta Smith run for 9 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Miller ForristallSimilar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-5
99.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 31Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+9
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 9 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Miller ForristallSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-2
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+24
99.9%
John Metchie III 24 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:330% → 0%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 10 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 3 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-2
99.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-30
99.9%
Bo Nix pass intercepted Brian Branch return for 30 yds to the Aub 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Aub 3 Brian Robinson Jr. fumbled, recovered by AubSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
14 plays · 96 yds · 5:560% → 0%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
99.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 3 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+4
99.9%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+8
99.9%
Bo Nix run for 8 yds to the Aub 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
99.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 14 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 5 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+6
99.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 6 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.9%
Shaun Shivers run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 4
50
+15
99.9%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Hudson, Kobe, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 15 yards to the ALABAMA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
99.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 1 yd to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+26
100.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 26 yds to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
100.0%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 7 yds to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the Alab 26Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
100.0%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
100.0%
Bryce Young sacked by Jaren Handy for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Charlie Scott punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Eli Stove at the Aub 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
100.0%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 8 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+2
100.0%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 2 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
100.0%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 9 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
100.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+7
100.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to J.J. Pegues for 7 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-9
100.0%
Bo Nix sacked by TEAM for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 44 AUBURN Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 19
OPP 44
+1
100.0%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 1 yd to the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:08
DeVonta Smith 58 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)
+4
TD · Q2 6:24
Jahleel Billingsley 24 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)
+2.3
TD · Q2 14:04
John Metchie III 7 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com