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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreTENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:18 · Oscar Chapman punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:06: Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 54 yds for a TD AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 8 (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +8.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- FG · Q3 7:25: Anders Carlson 27 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +5.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:21: Jarrett Guarantano pass intercepted for a TD Smoke Monday return for 100 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +15.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:14: D.J. Williams run for 9 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +5.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:07: Eric Gray run for 1 yd for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +7.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 12:00TENN 4th & 14 at AUB 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snapGo for it23.9%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call24.0%51% to makePunt23.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:38AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snapGo for it75.6%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.6%average punt
- Q2 13:42TENN 4th & 2 at AUB 30, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snapGo for it34.4%57% to convertField goalTheir call33.7%−0.756% to makePunt33.0%−1.4average punt
- Q2 11:11TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 31, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snapGo for it30.2%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.6%average punt
- Q2 5:36AUB 4th & 4 at TENN 8, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snapGo for it66.4%42% to convertField goalTheir call65.8%−0.690% to makePunt60.1%−6.3average punt
- Q2 2:26TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 46, tiedClose callPunted · 33.1% before the snapGo for it32.6%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:18AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 36, tiedClose callPunted · 68.1% before the snapGo for it68.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.6%−0.9average punt
- Q3 7:25AUB 4th & 7 at TENN 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snapGo for it66.0%−0.731% to convertField goalTheir call66.7%88% to makePunt57.0%−9.8average punt
- Q4 12:33TENN 4th & 9 at AUB 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snapGo for it13.1%−0.830% to convertField goalTheir call13.9%75% to makePunt8.2%−5.7average punt
- Q4 1:27AUB 4th & 10 at TENN 33, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snapGo for it94.7%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call94.9%49% to makePunt94.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:20TENN 4th & 15 at TENN 48, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.5%17% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.3%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 5:56TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.7%97% to makeGo for two27.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:06AUB Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.6%97% to makeGo for two69.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:21AUB Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two86.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:14AUB Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 4:07TENN Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.0%97% to makeGo for two6.3%−0.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTENNDrive 1MISSED FG10 plays · 43 yds · 2:4523% → 24%
Q1 14:24
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+28
76.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 28 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
76.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 12 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-5
76.2%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Jamien Sherwood for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0776% → 76%
Q1 10:38
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
76.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Eric Gray at the Tenn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:2924% → 29%
Q1 9:35
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-7
75.7%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by DaQuan Newkirk and Colby Wooden for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 15Similar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
74.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 16 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
74.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 6 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+15
74.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 15 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4INT11 plays · 55 yds · 3:0672% → 71%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
71.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 14 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+17
71.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 17 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 15
OPP 20
0
70.6%
Bo Nix pass intercepted, touchback. Bryce Thompson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5FG10 plays · 50 yds · 3:3831% → 34%
Q1 1:42
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
68.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 5 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+25
68.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 25 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
67.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 10 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
66.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+8
66.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 8 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+1
66.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Princeton Fant for 1 yd to the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD5 plays · 79 yds · 1:1465% → 72%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
72.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 54 yds for a TD AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 8 (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4030% → 30%
Q2 11:11
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
70.5%
Paxton Brooks punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Eli Stove at the Aub 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FG13 plays · 70 yds · 5:1970% → 73%
TENNDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 2:5432% → 32%
AUBDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5271% → 70%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
70.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 6 yds to the Aub 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11END OF HALF8 plays · 27 yds · 1:0733% → 36%
AUBDrive 12FG17 plays · 65 yds · 7:2569% → 73%
Q3 14:12
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+21
68.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 21 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+8
70.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 8 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
70.9%
Bo Nix sacked by Kivon Bennett for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 42Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-5
69.7%
Nix, Bo pass complete to Hudson, Kobe for 14 yards to the TENNESSEE28, PENALTY AUBURN ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TENNESSEE47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+16
69.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 16 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
71.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 5 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-11
70.9%
Bo Nix sacked by Kivon Bennett for a loss of 11 yards to the Tenn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13INT TD11 plays · 63 yds · 4:5630% → 20%
Q3 2:21
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-100
80.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass intercepted for a TD Smoke Monday return for 100 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14MISSED FG12 plays · 72 yds · 4:2715% → 14%
Q3 1:27
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+15
85.4%
Guarantano, Jarrett pass incomplete to Jones Jr., Velus, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference 15 yards to the TENNESSEE24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
84.0%
Chandler, Ty rush for loss of 2 yards to the TENNESSEE34, PENALTY AUBURN face mask 15 yards to the AUBURN49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 4
OPP 15
-5
83.6%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Colby Wooden for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD13 plays · 80 yds · 5:0988% → 97%
Q4 11:05
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
87.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 6 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+8
87.9%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Jackson, Shedrick, PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference 8 yards to the AUBURN45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
88.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 5
50
+14
89.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 14 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16TD13 plays · 75 yds · 2:583% → 11%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
96.9%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 17 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
96.9%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Ty Chandler for 7 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
97.0%
Bailey, Harrison pass incomplete to Chandler, Ty, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding 10 yards to the TENNESSEE43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+15
97.2%
Bailey, Harrison pass incomplete, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference 15 yards to the AUBURN7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q4 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
97.2%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Jacob Warren for 5 yds to the Aub 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17FG12 plays · 11 yds · 2:3594% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18END OF 4TH QUARTER10 plays · 54 yds · 1:201% → 2%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
98.6%
Bailey, Harrison pass incomplete to Keyton, Ramel, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding 10 yards to the TENNESSEE14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+12
98.7%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Ty Chandler for 12 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+15
98.6%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Princeton Fant for 15 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
98.6%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Princeton Fant for 12 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-5
98.5%
Harrison Bailey sacked by Big Kat Bryant for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 15
OWN 48
+18
98.7%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Jacob Warren for 18 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:21
Jarrett Guarantano pass intercepted for a TD Smoke Monday return for 100 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)
+15.9
TD · Q2 12:06
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 54 yds for a TD AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 8 (Anders Carlson KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q4 4:07
Eric Gray run for 1 yd for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
-7.4