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LSU

LSU 27 at Arkansas 24

ARK
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:30 · Reid Bauer punt for 38 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 28 Derek Stingley Jr. fumbled, recovered by LSU
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense−2.7Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.8Pregame prior−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:21: Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd for a TD (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +12.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:44: Feleipe Franks run for 10 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK) — ARK win probability +11.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q2 0:01: Cade York 24 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:04: Trelon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK) — ARK win probability +26.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:59: TJ Finley pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 13 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +46.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 10LSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 14:19ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:12LSU 4th & 16 at LSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:53ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:37LSU 4th & 3 at ARK 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:53ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:45LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 34, up 3
    Close callPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:42LSU 4th & 3 at ARK 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    47.6%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:22ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:51LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.0%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:30ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:53LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 36, up 3
    Close callPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:35LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:45ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:34LSU 4th & 13 at ARK 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:06LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−2.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:42ARK 4th & 4 at LSU 4, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.3%−1.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−16.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:20LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:30ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 16, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%−4.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:55ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.5%−9.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:24ARK 4th & 3 at LSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−7.2
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−23.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:40ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:54LSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:21LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:44ARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:04ARK Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:59LSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3248% → 48%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
47.5%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
47.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trelon SmithSimilar
Q1 14:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
47.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:5652% → 52%
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.6%
TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
47.7%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
47.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 5 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
47.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-4
47.9%
John Emery Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
48.3%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Racey McMathSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 11
OWN 35
-5
48.4%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
48.5%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:1248% → 48%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
48.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 11 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
48.5%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
48.5%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
48.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
48.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 47 yds, downed at the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 1:4551% → 52%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
48.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 18 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
48.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
48.1%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+20
48.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 20 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
48.0%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
48.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 7 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
48.0%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+49
48.0%
Cade York 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2848% → 48%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.1%
Treylon Burks run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
48.3%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
48.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trelon SmithSimilar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
47.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5552% → 51%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
48.3%
Chris Curry run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
48.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 5 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
48.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 5 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
48.8%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Treylon Burks at the Ark 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
4 plays · 92 yds · 0:5048% → 52%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
47.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 13 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
48.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 9 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+5
48.8%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
51.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 65 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3949% → 55%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
51.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
51.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
51.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 22 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
50.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-5
50.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to John Emery Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+6
51.1%
TJ Finley run for 6 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+5
51.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 5 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
49.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
45.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Racey McMath for 30 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2548% → 46%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.5%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
47.5%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
47.0%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+2
46.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 44 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 2 yds to the LSU 32 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10FUMBLE
9 plays · 53 yds · 4:0353% → 56%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
47.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 12 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
46.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 7 yds to the LSU 37 John Emery Jr. fumbled, recovered by LSUSimilar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-1
46.2%
John Emery Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+4
46.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 4 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
45.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
45.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 7 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
45.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
46.3%
TJ Finley run for 2 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
43.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 20 yds Terrace Marshall Jr. fumbled, recovered by ArkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:4146% → 44%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
46.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Dalton Wagner) to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 15
OWN 24
0
45.9%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+5
45.6%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
45.8%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-6
45.5%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Andre Anthony for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 11
OWN 28
-6
44.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 38 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 28 Derek Stingley Jr. fumbled, recovered by LSUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0655% → 54%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
44.9%
Chris Curry run for 1 yd to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+6
45.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Racey McMath for 6 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+1
44.6%
Chris Curry run for 1 yd to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
45.7%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Treylon Burks at the Ark 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:1246% → 46%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
46.0%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-36
46.0%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted Jabril Cox return for 36 yds to the Ark 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:1836% → 50%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
35.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 50 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
39.1%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
39.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trelon SmithSimilar
Q2 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
50.1%
Feleipe Franks run for 10 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16END OF HALF
19 plays · 69 yds · 3:1955% → 65%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
45.1%
John Emery Jr. run for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
43.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 4 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
43.7%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+12
43.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Racey McMath for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
50
+1
41.2%
John Emery Jr. run for 1 yd to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
41.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 7 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
40.3%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
40.2%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Racey McMathSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
40.5%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+12
41.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 12 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
39.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 16 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
39.6%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
40.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+24
34.6%
Cade York 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 4:1661% → 62%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
37.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
38.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 5 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
37.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
36.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+1
36.0%
TJ Finley run for 1 yd to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 2
OWN 44
-5
37.2%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (TJ Finley) to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
38.3%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 52 yds, downed at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4539% → 37%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
39.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 8Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+10
39.3%
Feleipe Franks run for 10 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 1
OWN 18
0
38.6%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 1
OWN 18
-4
37.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Dalton Wagner) to the Ark 14Similar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+9
37.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 58 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 9 yds to the LSU 23 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
16 plays · 34 yds · 6:0764% → 67%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
35.6%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
36.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Enoch Jackson Jr.) to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
34.5%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
34.5%
TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
33.4%
John Emery Jr. run for 5 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
32.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
32.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
50
+2
32.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 2 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
32.0%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+12
32.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 12 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
30.7%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Racey McMathSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-10
30.6%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 20
OPP 46
-2
31.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 22
OPP 48
+9
33.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 9 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
32.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 35 yds, downed at the Ark 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
5 plays · 95 yds · 1:2333% → 65%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+29
33.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 29 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
35.1%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+9
37.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trey Knox for 9 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+50
38.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 50 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.2%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2442% → 40%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
55.8%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Arik GilbertSimilar
Q3 0:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
57.8%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:06
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
59.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 61 yds, downed at the Ark 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22FG
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:1958% → 70%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+51
57.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to T.J. Hammonds for 51 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
64.9%
Feleipe Franks run for 6 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+29
65.9%
T.J. Hammonds run for 29 yds to the LSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
66.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
66.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 4 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
64.4%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 4Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
69.8%
A.J. Reed 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:1335% → 34%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
65.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 19 yds Jontre Kirklin fumbled, recovered by LSUSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
60.5%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
62.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 4
50
-3
59.8%
TJ Finley run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 47 TJ Finley fumbled, recovered by LSUSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-10
62.1%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Liam Shanahan) to the LSU 37Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 17
OWN 37
+8
66.5%
TJ Finley run for 8 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
65.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds, downed at the Ark 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2868% → 72%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
68.1%
Feleipe Franks run for 8 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 2
OWN 15
0
70.0%
Feleipe Franks run for no gain to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+1
71.3%
Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd to the Ark 16Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+3
72.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 54 yds , Jay Ward returns for 3 yds to the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:0835% → 80%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
64.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the LSU 33Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+31
62.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 15 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (16 Yards) to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
59.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 7 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
56.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
58.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+16
63.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 16 yds to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
66.0%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-5
66.0%
TJ Finley sacked by Grant Morgan for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 13 LSU Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Ark 13Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
19.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 13 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26MISSED FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 2:2834% → 33%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
33.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Tripping (-12 Yards) to the Ark 13Similar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+12
33.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 12 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
33.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 15 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
34.5%
Feleipe Franks run for no gain to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-6
32.4%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Andre Anthony for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+7
30.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 7 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
35.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyson Morris for 12 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
40.8%
Trelon Smith run for 7 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
41.9%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
38.2%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trelon SmithSimilar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+44
33.3%
A.J. Reed 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jay WardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5187% → 93%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
12.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-2
10.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 9
OWN 28
-3
7.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:59
TJ Finley pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 13 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)
-46.1
TD · Q3 1:04
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)
+26.9
TD · Q2 4:21
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd for a TD (Cade York KICK)
-12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com