Try the model
UK

Kentucky 3 at Alabama 63

ALA
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:19 · Colin Goodfellow punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Patrick Surtain II at the Alab 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior+11.2Home team on offense+36.3Score differential+31.1Blowout margin+19.0Garbage-time factor+8.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:19: Matt Ruffolo 33 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +0.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 10:12: Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 10 yds for a TD ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 8 (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +1.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:02: Najee Harris run for 42 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +1.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:46: Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 18 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:14: Terry Wilson pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Battle return for 45 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:39UK 4th & 14 at UK 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:19UK 4th & 8 at ALA 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:34ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:04UK 4th & 6 at ALA 6, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:37UK 4th & 8 at ALA 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:22UK 4th & 4 at UK 24, down 18
    Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:15UK 4th & 7 at UK 45, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:22ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 20, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:00UK 4th & 13 at UK 22, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:40UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:51UK 4th & 18 at UK 17, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:19UK 4th & 11 at UK 24, down 53
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:35ALA 4th & 5 at UK 19, up 53
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 10:07ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:12ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:02ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:46ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:14ALA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:43ALA Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:42ALA Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:15ALA Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:35ALA Touchdown, up 59 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:083% → 3%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
97.4%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 12 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
97.3%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+3
97.2%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-8
97.2%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 28 Terry Wilson fumbled, recovered by Kent Terry WilsonSimilar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 14
OWN 28
+16
97.1%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 43 yds , Slade Bolden returns for 16 yds to the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:1697% → 97%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+34
97.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 34 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
97.0%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Kent 20Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+16
97.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 16 yds to the Kent 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
96.9%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.8%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Kent 1Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.0%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:323% → 4%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
96.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 13 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
96.8%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 8 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+2
96.6%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
50
+33
96.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 33 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
96.4%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
96.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 10Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 3
OPP 10
-10
96.3%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Landon Young) to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+5
96.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 5 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
96.1%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
95.9%
Matt Ruffolo 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:4196% → 96%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
95.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 24 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
96.0%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-2
95.9%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 49Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
95.6%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 3:34
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
95.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5FUMBLE
15 plays · 38 yds · 6:194% → 6%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
95.6%
Terry Wilson run for 7 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+14
95.4%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 14 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
95.1%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 42Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+9
94.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 9 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
94.7%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-5
94.6%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Kent 48Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+15
94.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Josh Jobe) to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
94.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 17 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
94.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 5 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+7
94.0%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 7 yds to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
93.8%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 7Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.6%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q2 12:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
94.1%
Terry Wilson run for 1 yd to the Alab 6Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-36
94.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 36 yards to the Alab 42 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Kent Matt RuffoloSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:4894% → 96%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
94.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 3 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+27
94.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 27 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
94.4%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Roughing Passer (Phil Hoskins) to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
94.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 4 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
96.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 10 yds for a TD ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 8 (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7MISSED FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:135% → 5%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
95.4%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 1 yd to the Kent 35Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+3
95.3%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+21
95.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 21 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
94.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Kavosiey Smoke for no gain to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
95.0%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Kavosiey SmokeSimilar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+14
95.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 14 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
94.6%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Kavosiey SmokeSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
94.7%
Terry Wilson run for 2 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
94.8%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
95.1%
Matt Ruffolo 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1895% → 97%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.2%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
95.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 18 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
95.3%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+14
95.3%
Najee Harris run for 14 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
97.0%
Najee Harris run for 42 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:233% → 3%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
96.6%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+3
96.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 3 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
96.7%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Allen Dailey Jr.Similar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+3
96.7%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 50 yds , Slade Bolden returns for 3 yds to the Alab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:2797% → 99%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
96.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 3 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
96.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kordell Looney) to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+9
96.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 9 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
96.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 17 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
96.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+19
96.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 19 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 18 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:103% → 4%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.6%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
96.3%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the Kent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12INT
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:5999% → 99%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
98.9%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+9
98.9%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+18
98.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 18 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
99.1%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yusuf Corker) to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-21
99.1%
Mac Jones pass intercepted Kelvin Joseph return for 21 yds to the Kent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:221% → 1%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
98.8%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 20 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.8%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
98.8%
Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
98.8%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
98.8%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3399% → 99%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
99.2%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
99.2%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
99.1%
Charlie Scott punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the Kent 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-45
99.5%
Terry Wilson pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Battle return for 45 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.6%
Joey Gatewood pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.6%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Kent 22Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
99.6%
Joey Gatewood pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+41
99.6%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 48 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for 41 yds to the Kent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
99.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
99.7%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+5
99.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 5 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.8%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+11
99.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 11 yds to the Kent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 5 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Joey Gatewood pass incomplete to Keaton UpshawSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Joey Gatewood pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 45 yds, fair catch by DeVonta Smith at the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:36100% → 100%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+50
99.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 35 yds to the ALABAMA 41 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
99.8%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+3
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 5Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-8
99.9%
Bryce Young sacked by Jamar Watson for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 13Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-5
99.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 18Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 18 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
JuTahn McClain run for 1 yd to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-7
99.9%
Beau Allen sacked by Christian Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 0:09
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-2
99.9%
Beau Allen sacked by Christopher Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 17Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+9
99.9%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 48 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for 9 yds to the Alab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 5:35100% → 100%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.9%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
99.9%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
99.9%
Jase McClellan run for 16 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.9%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+11
99.9%
Roydell Williams run for 11 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.9%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+9
99.9%
Roydell Williams run for 9 yds to the Kent 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.9%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 2Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Beau Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
JuTahn McClain run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 24Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Beau Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Patrick Surtain II at the Alab 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 6:30100% → 100%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
99.9%
Jase McClellan run for 11 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+23
100.0%
Jase McClellan run for 23 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
100.0%
Jase McClellan run for 8 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+1
100.0%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
100.0%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
100.0%
Roydell Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-2
100.0%
Roydell Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 13
OPP 27
+8
100.0%
Jase McClellan run for 8 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+19
100.0%
Jase McClellan run for 19 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24Uncategorized
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Travis Tisdale run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
100.0%
Travis Tisdale run for 4 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
100.0%
Travis Tisdale run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:46
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 18 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+2
TD · Q2 4:02
Najee Harris run for 42 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q2 10:12
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 10 yds for a TD ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 8 (Will Reichard KICK)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com