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South Carolina 42 at Ole Miss 59

MISS
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:39 · Mac Brown punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jammie Robinson at the SCaro 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior+12.0Home team on offense+4.1Garbage-time factor+0.7Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:39: Kevin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +13.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 2:59: Kevin Harris run for 44 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +26.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:11: Jerrion Ealy run for 12 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +25.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:50: Kevin Harris run for 12 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +28.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:02: Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 91 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +27.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:17MISS 4th & 1 at SC 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:07MISS 4th & 8 at SC 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    77.1%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:36SC 4th & 1 at MISS 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−7.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:54SC 4th & 5 at SC 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−2.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00MISS 4th & 10 at SC 39, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    72.7%−0.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    73.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:39MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:02SC 4th & 14 at SC 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−3.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:09SC 4th & 11 at SC 24, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:40MISS 4th & 11 at SC 25, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:15SC 4th & 13 at MISS 19, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:15SC 4th & 5 at MISS 5, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 8 of 8SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:24SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:45MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:47MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:18SC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:38MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:36SC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:34MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:39SC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:59SC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:11MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:50SC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 12:02MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 6:09MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 3:40MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:3618% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.1%
Kevin Harris run for 6 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
82.1%
Kevin Harris run for 7 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
82.1%
Kevin Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+15
82.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Shi Smith for 15 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
82.1%
Kevin Harris run for 3 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
82.1%
Kevin Harris run for 3 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+12
82.1%
Kevin Harris run for 12 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
82.1%
Kevin Harris run for 1 yd to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+18
82.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Shi Smith for 18 yds to the Miss 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
78.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Shi Smith for 11 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
15 plays · 57 yds · 4:3279% → 80%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
79.4%
Elijah Moore run for 5 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+8
79.5%
Elijah Moore run for 8 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
79.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 9 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-1
79.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 36Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
79.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the SCaro 35Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+3
79.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the SCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
79.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
79.7%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+5
79.5%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
79.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+13
79.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 13 yds to the SCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
79.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 5 yds to the SCaro 4Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
79.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 1 yd to the SCaro 3Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
78.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Shi Smith for 4 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
78.7%
Collin Hill pass intercepted A.J. Finley return for no gain to the Miss 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:2079% → 82%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
79.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 21 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
79.6%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
79.6%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the SCaro 40Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
79.4%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the SCaro 40Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 8
OPP 40
+23
78.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 23 yds to the SCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
79.8%
Elijah Moore run for 9 yds to the SCaro 8Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+5
79.8%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the SCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.1%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2919% → 25%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Shi Smith for 4 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
80.7%
Kevin Harris run for 14 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
80.4%
Kevin Harris run for 11 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
75.3%
Kevin Harris run for 46 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4077% → 82%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+39
77.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 39 yds to the SCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-7
78.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 7 yards to the SCaro 39Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+15
78.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 15 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
78.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the SCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
78.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 14 yards to the SC7, out-of-bounds (Jaylan Foster), PENALTY OM illegal shift (Braylon Sanders) 5 yards to the SC26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+12
78.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 12 yds to the SCaro 14Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
78.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the SCaro 12Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
78.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the SCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
78.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 15Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
-12
78.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 3 yds to the SCaro 12 OLE MISS Penalty, illegal block (Dontario Drummond) to the SCaro 27Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 27
+12
78.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 12 yds to the SCaro 15Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
82.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 15 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 5:5419% → 30%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
80.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Shi Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the SCaro 15Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 16
OWN 15
+33
80.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 33 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
79.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
79.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
79.1%
Collin Hill run for 2 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+36
79.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Shi Smith for 36 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
78.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the Miss 4Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
78.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for no gain to the Miss 4Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
79.1%
Luke Doty run for 3 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.7%
Kevin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8FUMBLE
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:4774% → 76%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.6%
Elijah Moore run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+52
73.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 52 yds to the SCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
76.3%
Elijah Moore run for 13 yds to the SCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
76.3%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the SCaro 5Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
76.3%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the SCaro 4Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
75.9%
Matt Corral sacked by Kingsley Enagbare for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 8 Matt Corral fumbled, recovered by SCaro John Dixon , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:4729% → 28%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
71.3%
Kevin Harris run for no gain to the SCaro 8Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-2
71.4%
Kevin Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 6Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+7
70.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 7 yds to the SCaro 13Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
72.0%
Kai Kroeger punt for 49 yds, downed at the Miss 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 0:4473% → 78%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
73.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 9 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+6
74.3%
Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
74.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Snoop ConnerSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
74.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Kenny Yeboah (Jammie Robinson), PENALTY SC pass interference (Jammie Robinson) 15 yards to the SC32, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+27
75.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 27 yds to the SCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
78.1%
Luke Logan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:2675% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
74.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 16 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
76.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 20 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
77.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+3
77.0%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
-5
76.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (Nick Broeker) to the SCaro 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+3
75.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+17
74.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 17 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
77.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the SCaro 14 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Dontario Drummond) to the SCaro 24Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 12
OPP 24
+9
77.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 9 yds to the SCaro 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
77.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the SCaro 13Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
76.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the SCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
77.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario Drummond, broken up by M.J. WebbSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+9
77.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to D. Drummond, PENALTY SC pass interference (John Dixon) 9 yards to the SC2, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.1%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5016% → 32%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
84.0%
Kevin Harris run for 13 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
83.3%
Kevin Harris run for no gain to the SCaro 38Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
83.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Shi Smith for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
50
+29
82.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 29 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
81.2%
Kevin Harris run for 5 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
81.2%
Shi Smith pass incomplete to Nick Muse, broken up by Jon HaynesSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+15
82.1%
Kevin Harris run for 15 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.2%
Collin Hill run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.2%
Kevin Harris run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.9%
Kevin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
73.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
73.2%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
72.3%
Mac Brown punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jammie Robinson at the SCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:5528% → 55%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+32
71.8%
Kevin Harris run for 32 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
45.4%
Kevin Harris run for 44 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4852% → 77%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
51.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
52.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 9 yards to the OM45, PENALTY OM illegal shift (Braylon Sanders) 5 yards to the OM31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
51.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+57
51.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 57 yds to the SCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
76.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 12 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2128% → 63%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Shi Smith for 11 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
70.5%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Jalen Brooks, broken up by Hal NorthernSimilar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
71.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 7 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+22
68.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 22 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
65.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 11 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
65.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Shi Smith for 12 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
37.0%
Kevin Harris run for 12 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
3 plays · 94 yds · 0:4546% → 74%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
46.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+91
73.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 91 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.8%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Josh VannSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
72.1%
Kevin Harris run for 19 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
68.5%
Kevin Harris run for 4 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
67.5%
Kevin Harris run for no gain to the SCaro 45 Kevin Harris fumbled, forced by Jakorey Hawkins,Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 9
OWN 45
-5
70.6%
Collin Hill sacked by Ryder Anderson and Lakia Henry for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 40Similar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
74.1%
Kai Kroeger punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:0875% → 93%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
74.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+14
75.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 14 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
76.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+29
77.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 29 yds to the SCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
74.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah Moore, QB hurry by Zacch Pickens, PENALTY SC offside off-setting, PENALTY OM intentional grounding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
79.3%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the SCaro 27Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+14
79.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah Moore, PENALTY SC pass interference (Jaycee Horn) 14 yards to the SC13, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
79.3%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the SCaro 7Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+2
79.3%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the SCaro 5Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
92.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Shi Smith, broken up by Keidron SmithSimilar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 24Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
93.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Shi Smith, broken up by Keidron SmithSimilar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
93.3%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Nick MuseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:4093% → 98%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
92.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 28Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+4
92.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-1
93.4%
Matt Corral run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 25Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+25
98.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 25 yds for a TD (Casey Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 70 yds · 1:242% → 2%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
98.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 27 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
97.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Nick Muse for 19 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
97.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 13 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
97.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Jalen BrooksSimilar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
97.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for 4 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 6
OPP 12
-7
97.5%
Collin Hill sacked by Tavius Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 19Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+14
98.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Josh Vann for 14 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.7%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Jalen Brooks, broken up by Jakorey HawkinsSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.7%
Collin Hill pass incomplete, broken up by Keidron SmithSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Josh Vann, broken up by A.J. FinleySimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Jalen Brooks, broken up by Keidron SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
99.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+4
99.0%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+6
99.0%
Elijah Moore run for 6 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
99.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 12 yds to the Miss 32 Henry Parrish Jr. fumbled, forced by Ernest Jones, recovered by Miss Henry Parrish Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:50
Kevin Harris run for 12 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)
-28
TD · Q4 12:02
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 91 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)
+27.4
TD · Q3 2:59
Kevin Harris run for 44 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)
-26.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com