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VAN

Vanderbilt 17 at Mississippi State 24

MSST
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:27 · Reed Bowman punt for 63 yds, downed at the Vandy 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Pregame prior+10.7Home team on offense+5.6Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor+3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:27: Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Wes Farley KICK) — VAN win probability +7.9 pts (now 15%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:27: Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 27 yds for a TD (Wes Farley KICK) — VAN win probability +16.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 2:43: Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd for a TD PENALTY MS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY VU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY. (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +3.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:38: Pierson Cooke 41 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +10.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:38: Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 00:38 — MSST win probability +8.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:47VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:38VAN 4th & 7 at MSST 32, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.0%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00VAN 4th & 2 at MSST 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−1.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:24MSST 4th & 2 at VAN 7, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.8%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:24VAN 4th & 14 at MSST 36, down 17
    Close callPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:08MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 14, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:41MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 37, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00MSST 4th & 24 at VAN 49, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:44MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:11VAN 4th & 1 at MSST 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−1.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−6.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:21MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 40, up 10
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:27MSST 4th & 23 at MSST 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−8.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:02MSST 4th & 15 at VAN 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−4.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:47MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:33MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:27VAN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:27VAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:43MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.7%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
90.7%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 5 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
90.7%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 1 yd to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-28
90.7%
Ken Seals pass intercepted Collin Duncan return for 28 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:5190% → 90%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
90.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
90.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+6
90.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 6 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
90.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 9 yds to the Vandy 6Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+6
90.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 4:0910% → 11%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.2%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
90.1%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 2 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
90.2%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for no gain to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
90.2%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 1 yd to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
90.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 10 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
90.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+17
90.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Collin Duncan) to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
90.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+1
90.0%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
90.1%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
89.5%
Pierson Cooke 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 5:0590% → 91%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
89.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 8 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+5
89.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 5 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
89.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+11
89.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 11 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
89.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+6
89.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
89.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
89.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+4
89.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the Vandy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
89.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 9 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
91.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:2810% → 10%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
90.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 21 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
90.2%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
90.2%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+5
90.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 5 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+1
90.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 1 yd to the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 5:3091% → 93%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
91.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
91.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks, broken up by Maxwell WorshipSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+8
91.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 8 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+5
90.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, offside defense (Daevion Davis) to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
91.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 14 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
91.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 5 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+4
91.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+4
91.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
91.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Vandy 11Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
91.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 5 yds to the Vandy 6Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 6
-1
91.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 7Similar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+25
93.1%
Brandon Ruiz 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
92.2%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 4 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
92.2%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 1 yd to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
92.3%
Seals, Ken pass incomplete to Pierce, Chris, PENALTY MS pass interference (Martin Emerson) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN VU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
50
+18
92.0%
Ken Seals run for 3 yds to the MS State 47 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (Shawn Preston Jr.) to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
91.7%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
91.7%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
92.0%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 9
OPP 31
-5
92.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, delay of game (Ken Seals) to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 14
OPP 36
0
92.6%
Harrison Smith punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
93.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 6Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+8
93.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
93.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath, broken up by Jaylen MahoneySimilar
Q2 6:08
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
92.6%
Reed Bowman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9INT
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+30
91.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 30 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
91.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 1 yd to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+20
91.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 20 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.2%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
91.2%
Rocko Griffin run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 3Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
91.6%
Ken Seals pass intercepted, touchback. Erroll Thompson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:1494% → 94%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
93.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 4 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
93.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell, broken up by Brendon HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-10
93.2%
Will Rogers sacked by Dayo Odeyingbo for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 20
OWN 21
+16
93.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 16 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+2
93.7%
Reed Bowman punt for 48 yds , Cam Johnson returns for 2 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
92.5%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 16 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
92.2%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
92.4%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 9 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+32
93.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (Dashaun Jerkins) to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
93.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Brandon Cunningham) to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-15
93.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to G. Spivey for no gain to the VU40 (Jeudy-Lally, G;Mahoney, Jaylen), PENALTY MS face mask (B. Cunningham) 15 yards to the MS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 30
OWN 45
0
93.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Geor'quarius Spivey, broken up by Dayo OdeyingboSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 30
OWN 45
+6
93.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 6 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 24
OPP 49
0
92.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 24
OPP 49
0
92.5%
Reed Bowman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13FUMBLE
9 plays · 47 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
93.7%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Connor Mignone) to the Vandy 4Similar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 15
OWN 4
+3
93.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the Vandy 7Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+19
93.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 19 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
93.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 14 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
93.0%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
93.2%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+12
93.4%
Seals, Ken pass incomplete to Abdur-Rahman, A (Martin Emerson), QB hurry by Aaron Odom, PENALTY MS pass interference (Martin Emerson) 12 yards to the MS48, 1ST DOWN VU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.6%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Ben Bresnahan, broken up by Aaron OdomSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
92.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 6 yds Amir Abdur-Rahman fumbled, forced by Tyrus Wheat, recovered by MisSt Esaias FurdgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
94.9%
Will Rogers sacked by Andre Mintze for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 17
OWN 37
+8
94.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 8 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 9
OWN 0
0
94.3%
Will Rogers sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MS35 (Odeyingbo, Dayo), PENALTY VU offside defense off-setting, PENALTY MS holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+2
94.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 7
OWN 47
+21
94.3%
Reed Bowman punt for 45 yds , Cam Johnson returns for 21 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:446% → 15%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+28
93.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 28 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
93.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 14 yds Cam Johnson fumbled, recovered by Vandy Chris Pierce Jr. for a 1ST down , return for no gain to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding (Amir Abdur-Rahman) to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+12
93.4%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 12 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-4
92.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+11
93.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 11 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+2
93.0%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+16
93.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 16 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Wes Farley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
88.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, broken up by Brendon HarrisSimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
88.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
88.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
88.3%
Reed Bowman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 5:1212% → 30%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
88.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 4 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+11
88.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 11 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
87.6%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 9 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
86.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
87.0%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+1
86.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 1 yd to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+9
88.1%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
86.9%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+1
86.6%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
86.2%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr., broken up by Martin EmersonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
86.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 8 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+27
70.3%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 27 yds for a TD (Wes Farley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0078% → 75%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-14
77.6%
Will Rogers sacked by Michael Owusu for a loss of 14 yards to the MisSt 11Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+1
77.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 1 yd to the MisSt 12Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 23
OWN 12
0
75.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon Johnson, broken up by Michael OwusuSimilar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
74.8%
Reed Bowman punt for 63 yds, downed at the Vandy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 1:4726% → 32%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.2%
Rocko Griffin run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
71.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jayden Harrison for no gain to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
74.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 13 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
70.9%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 44Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+29
72.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 29 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
67.7%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-27
67.9%
Ken Seals pass intercepted Marquiss Spencer return for 27 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0082% → 77%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
81.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 3 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-10
81.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to L. Witherspoon for no gain to the VU40 (Mahoney, Jaylen), PENALTY MS holding (B. Cunningham) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 17
50
0
79.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 17
50
+2
78.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
76.8%
Reed Bowman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
75.1%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 5 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
73.8%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Keyon Henry-BrooksSimilar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+7
75.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 7 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.6%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-Rahman, broken up by Emmanuel ForbesSimilar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
73.8%
Rocko Griffin run for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 15Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 15
OWN 15
-1
75.5%
Ken Seals sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 13 Ken Seals fumbled, recovered by MisSt Tyrus Wheat , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3586% → 96%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
85.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+2
85.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the Vandy 1Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd for a TD PENALTY MS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY VU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY. (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 2:053% → 15%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
97.2%
Seals, Ken pass complete to Henry-Brooks, K for 5 yards to the VU30 (Erroll Thompson;Aaron Brule), PENALTY VU face mask (Steen, Tyler) 12 yards to the VU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
97.3%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+14
97.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 14 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
97.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 16 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
96.8%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr.Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
96.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 6 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+11
96.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 11 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
96.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 17 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+41
84.9%
Pierson Cooke 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:27
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 27 yds for a TD (Wes Farley KICK)
-16
FG · Q4 0:38
Pierson Cooke 41 yd FG GOOD
-10.2
FG · Q4 0:38
Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 00:38
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com