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TENN

Tennessee 13 at Arkansas 24

ARK
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:07 · Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds , Eric Gray returns for 1 yd to the Tenn 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Home team on offense+26.3Garbage-time factor+15.5Pregame prior−0.2Score differential+5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:57: Brent Cimaglia 48 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +6.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:46: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 1 yd for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK) — ARK win probability +12.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q3 6:35: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 6 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK) — ARK win probability +21.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:13: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 59 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK) — ARK win probability +22.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:13: Brian Maurer pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr. — TENN win probability +4.7 pts (now 26%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 8TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:25TENN 4th & 13 at ARK 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:25ARK 4th & 14 at TENN 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    46.7%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:51ARK 4th & 4 at TENN 4, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−4.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:51TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 27, up 10
    Close callPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:34ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 49, down 10
    Close callPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:57TENN 4th & 3 at ARK 31, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.2%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:57ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 48, down 13
    Close callPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:46TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:35TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−1.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:13TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:07ARK 4th & 3 at TENN 31, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.0%−2.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−4.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:23TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:13ARK 4th & 24 at ARK 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−3.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:49TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:20ARK 4th & 20 at ARK 10, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−2.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:07TENN 4th & 4 at ARK 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−3.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:07ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:35TENN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:46ARK Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:35ARK Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:13ARK Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1FG
14 plays · 42 yds · 5:3557% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.1%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the Tenn 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
43.1%
Jarrett Guarantano run for no gain to the Tenn 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
43.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 10 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
43.1%
Eric Gray run for 11 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
43.1%
Eric Gray run for 8 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+5
43.1%
Eric Gray run for 5 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
43.1%
Eric Gray run for 7 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+3
43.1%
Eric Gray run for 3 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
43.1%
Guarantano,J. rush for 5 yards to the AR25 (Hayden Henry), PENALTY UT holding (Smith,T.) 10 yards to the AR40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+7
43.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 7 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 33
0
43.1%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 33
0
43.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for no gain to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+50
44.5%
Brent Cimaglia 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
44.1%
De'Vion Warren run for 22 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
44.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 8 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+5
44.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
44.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Tenn 40Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-3
44.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 43Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 13
OPP 43
-1
44.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
43.9%
Sam Loy punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Eric Gray at the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3TD
17 plays · 81 yds · 8:2956% → 62%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
44.4%
Eric Gray run for 6 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+2
44.2%
Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+3
44.4%
Velus Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
44.3%
Eric Gray run for 5 yds to the Tenn 35 Eric Gray fumbled, forced by Jalen Catalon, recovered by Tenn Josh PalmerSimilar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
44.1%
Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
43.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
44.0%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+20
44.1%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 20 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
43.6%
Eric Gray run for 5 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
43.4%
Eric Gray run for no gain to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+7
43.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 7 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
43.4%
Eric Gray run for 4 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+7
43.4%
Eric Gray run for 7 yds to the Ark 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
42.6%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 9 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+3
42.6%
Eric Gray run for 3 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.5%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4MISSED FG
17 plays · 71 yds · 4:4439% → 38%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
38.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
39.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
39.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
39.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 7 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
39.4%
Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
39.8%
Treylon Burks run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
50
+7
39.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 7 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
40.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
40.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 24 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
41.0%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 4
OPP 10
-2
41.0%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 12Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+9
40.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 9 yds to the Tenn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
41.0%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 4Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
41.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q2 13:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
40.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 8:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
37.8%
A.J. Reed 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
38.6%
Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
38.7%
Eric Gray run for 5 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
38.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
39.4%
Paxton Brooks punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
35.9%
Trelon Smith run for 23 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
37.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for a loss of 10 yards Trelon Smith fumbled, recovered by Ark Trelon SmithSimilar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 20
OWN 33
0
35.9%
De'Vion Warren pass incomplete to Trelon Smith, broken up by Quavaris Crouch ARKANSAS Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 20
OWN 33
+16
35.1%
Feleipe Franks run for 16 yds to the Ark 49 Feleipe Franks fumbled, recovered by Ark Feleipe FranksSimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
36.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:5364% → 72%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
35.7%
Eric Gray run for 9 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
34.9%
Eric Gray run for 5 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
35.1%
Guarantano,J. pass incomplete to Palmer,J., PENALTY AR holding (Hudson Clark) 10 yards to the UT44, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
34.3%
Jabari Small run for no gain to the Tenn 44Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+18
34.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 18 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
34.1%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
33.9%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
34.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete, broken up by LaDarrius BishopSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+48
28.2%
Brent Cimaglia 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
30.9%
De'Vion Warren run for 19 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
31.5%
Feleipe Franks run for no gain to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
31.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
31.2%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
30.9%
Sam Loy punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Eric Gray at the Tenn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
28.2%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Xavier Kelly for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:1429% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
28.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
29.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
29.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Hudson Henry for 6 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
29.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
30.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
29.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
30.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Hudson Henry for 9 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-1
30.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
30.4%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
30.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
30.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 7 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+12
30.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 12 yds to the Tenn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
31.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 3 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+5
31.8%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+10
30.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 10 yds Blake Kern fumbled, forced by Quavaris Crouch, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
31.8%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Tenn 1Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 1 yd for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.7%
Eric Gray run for no gain to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
36.4%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Darnell Wright) to the Tenn 20Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
36.7%
Eric Gray run for 6 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
37.1%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 4 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
37.4%
Paxton Brooks punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 1:0038% → 62%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
38.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+56
40.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 56 yds to the ARKANSAS 6 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
62.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 6 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.3%
Eric Gray run for 5 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
55.2%
Eric Gray run for 3 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
55.5%
Eric Gray run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 31Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+4
58.2%
Paxton Brooks punt for 54 yds , Treylon Burks returns for 4 yds to the Ark 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14TD
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:2958% → 80%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
57.5%
Trelon Smith run for 22 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
80.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 59 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Brian Maurer pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.5%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
75.4%
Brian Maurer pass incomplete to Jalin Hyatt, broken up by Montaric BrownSimilar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
76.3%
Paxton Brooks punt for 54 yds, downed at the Ark 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:0479% → 86%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
78.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
78.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+24
80.4%
Feleipe Franks run for 24 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
83.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to DeVion Warren (Burrell,W.), PENALTY UT pass interference (Burrell,W.) 15 yards to the UT38, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
83.5%
Feleipe Franks run for 4 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
84.3%
Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+1
83.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Hudson Henry for 1 yd to the Tenn 31Similar
Q3 0:07
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+48
85.6%
A.J. Reed 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:4415% → 14%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
84.7%
Brian Maurer sacked by Joe Foucha for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
85.0%
Maurer,B. pass complete to Johnson,B. for 6 yards to the UT30 (Montaric Brown), PENALTY AR holding (Joe Foucha) 10 yards to the UT34, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
83.9%
Brian Maurer run for 4 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-1
82.9%
Eric Gray run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
84.3%
Brian Maurer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
86.3%
Paxton Brooks punt for 36 yds, downed at the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
86.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 8 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+2
86.5%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
86.8%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Kivon Bennett for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
86.2%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 16
OWN 31
-8
85.5%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Ja'Quain Blakely for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 24
OWN 23
0
84.8%
Reid Bauer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Eric Gray at the Tenn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 11%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
86.2%
Jabari Small run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+3
88.4%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
87.4%
Brian Maurer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
89.1%
Paxton Brooks punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0091% → 89%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
90.6%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Kivon Bennett for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 16Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+4
90.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-10
90.1%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Deandre Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the Ark 10 Feleipe Franks fumbled, recovered by Ark Dalton Wagner , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
89.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
89.5%
Eric Gray run for 6 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+2
88.7%
Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+9
88.9%
Eric Gray run for 9 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
88.2%
Eric Gray run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+5
87.7%
Eric Gray run for 5 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 2
OPP 23
-2
88.7%
Eric Gray run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 4
OPP 25
0
90.4%
Harrison Bailey pass intercepted Eric Gregory return for no gain to the Ark 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:2594% → 97%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
93.7%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+6
93.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 6 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
93.9%
Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-1
94.1%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+5
96.8%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+1
96.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds , Eric Gray returns for 1 yd to the Tenn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23INT
10 plays · 72 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
97.2%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Eric Gray for 9 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+9
96.9%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Eric Gray for 9 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
96.9%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Eric Gray for 9 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+5
96.6%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Jabari Small for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
50
+9
96.6%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Jabari Small for 9 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+5
96.2%
Harrison Bailey run for 5 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
96.2%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 24 yds to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
95.6%
Harrison Bailey run for 2 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
95.6%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
95.9%
Harrison Bailey pass intercepted, touchback. Jalen Catalon return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:13
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 59 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)
+22.6
TD · Q3 6:35
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 6 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)
+21.6
TD · Q3 9:46
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 1 yd for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com