Try the model
UK

Kentucky 10 at Missouri 20

MIZ
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 12 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense+0.9Pregame prior−8.9Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:57: Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +8.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:45: Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +15.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:14: Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 26 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +16.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:14: Chance Poore kickoff for 59 yds — MIZ win probability +7.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:10: Timeout KENTUCKY, clock 03:10 — MIZ win probability +8.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 10UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:05MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:24UK 4th & 8 at UK 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:56MIZ 4th & 4 at UK 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:28UK 4th & 15 at UK 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00MIZ 4th & 5 at UK 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    48.0%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    48.1%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:24UK 4th & 7 at MIZ 32, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:24MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:08UK 4th & 11 at UK 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00MIZ 4th & 4 at UK 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−2.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00MIZ 4th & 6 at UK 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00MIZ 4th & 1 at UK 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%−2.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−10.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:25UK 4th & 4 at UK 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:14MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 34, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:09UK 4th & 8 at UK 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:07MIZ 4th & 1 at UK 1, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−7.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:18MIZ 4th & 1 at UK 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UK made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 10:57MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:45MIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:14UK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.3%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete, broken up by Martez ManuelSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
38.3%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
38.3%
Max Duffy punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
38.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 17 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
38.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
38.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+6
38.7%
Connor Bazelak run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
50
-4
38.8%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 46Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
38.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Larry Rountree IIISimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+3
38.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 3 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
38.6%
Grant McKinniss punt for 36 yds, downed at the Kent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
39.9%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
39.8%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+7
39.9%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
39.8%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 30Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+3
39.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose Jr. for 3 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
40.0%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
40.1%
Max Duffy punt for 36 yds, downed at the Misso 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
41.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 6 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+13
41.6%
Connor Bazelak run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
50
+3
41.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
41.9%
Larry Rountree III run for no gain to the Kent 47Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+3
41.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 3 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
41.3%
Grant McKinniss punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the Kent 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
41.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 9Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+18
41.9%
Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Tyree Gillespie) to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
41.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
41.2%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-7
41.7%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 22 Terry Wilson fumbled, recovered by Kent Terry WilsonSimilar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
42.5%
Max Duffy punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6TD
14 plays · 66 yds · 6:0143% → 54%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
43.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 8 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+13
44.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 13 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
44.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-6
44.3%
Tyler Badie rush for 8 yards to the UK36 (D. Robinson), PENALTY MU illegal formation 6 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 15
50
+5
43.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+5
44.3%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+12
44.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 12 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
45.7%
Tyler Badie run for 15 yds to the Kent 13 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+10
45.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 10 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
45.7%
Connor Bazelak run for no gain to the Kent 1Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 23
+8
45.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 8 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
45.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Kent 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+3
45.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Kent 11Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:3349% → 53%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
51.4%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 29 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
49.4%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
49.4%
Joey Gatewood run for 8 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
48.4%
Joey Gatewood pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
48.5%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 3 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
49.6%
Joey Gatewood pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
47.2%
Matt Ruffolo 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
49.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
48.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D'ionte Smith for 10 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
50.0%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
50.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 5 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
49.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
48.5%
Grant McKinniss punt for 37 yds, downed at the Kent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
50.3%
Joey Gatewood run for 2 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+1
50.4%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 18Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 7
OWN 18
-4
51.3%
Joey Gatewood sacked by Nick Bolton for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 14Similar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 11
OWN 14
0
52.2%
Max Duffy punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 2:5353% → 60%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
52.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
52.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 12 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
54.5%
Larry Rountree III run for no gain to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-3
54.2%
Larry Rountree rush for 13 yards to the UK40, out-of-bounds, PENALTY MU holding 3 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 7
50
+11
54.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 11 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
55.1%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 41Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+4
55.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 4 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+24
54.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 24 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
57.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
57.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.1%
Connor Bazelak run for no gain to the Kent 1Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Niko HeaSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
60.4%
Harrison Mevis 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11DOWNS
23 plays · 66 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
61.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Daniel Parker Jr.) to the Misso 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
60.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 6 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
59.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 13 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
63.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
62.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+10
60.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 10 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
63.4%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
50
0
62.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tyler BadieSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
50
+7
61.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 7 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+4
61.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 4 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
63.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+5
63.6%
Connor Bazelak run for 5 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-4
62.8%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+7
61.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 7 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
63.8%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+3
63.8%
Tyler Badie run for 3 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+3
62.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
63.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+3
63.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Kent 7Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
62.8%
Larry Rountree III run for no gain to the Kent 7Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 7
-2
61.5%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Yusuf Corker for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
67.0%
Terry Wilson run for 2 yds to the Kent 11Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
67.0%
Joey Gatewood pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+4
68.3%
Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
69.1%
Max Duffy punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 3:1174% → 91%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+27
73.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 27 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
75.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 18 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
75.3%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+6
75.3%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the Kent 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
75.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3114% → 31%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
86.2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 17 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
84.9%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 7 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, personal foul (Ennis Rakestraw Jr.) to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
86.2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+3
84.5%
Josh Ali run for 3 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+1
85.5%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
69.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 26 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
81.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
80.3%
Connor Bazelak run for 3 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
79.6%
Grant McKinniss punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the Kent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
77.9%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
78.1%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Allen Dailey Jr.Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
79.2%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
80.3%
Max Duffy punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 7:0485% → 94%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
84.9%
Connor Bazelak run for 3 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
85.2%
Larry Rountree III run for no gain to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+18
83.9%
Connor Bazelak run for 8 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive holding (Terry Wilson) to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
85.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+7
86.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 7 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
86.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+8
86.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 8 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+4
85.1%
Connor Bazelak run for 4 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
86.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Niko HeaSimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
86.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+12
85.1%
Tyler Badie run for 12 yds to the Kent 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
86.1%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 6Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
86.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Kent 5Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
85.1%
Jalen Knox run for 4 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+20
93.9%
Harrison Mevis 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
95.0%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Josh Ali for 12 yds Josh Ali fumbled, forced by Joshuah Bledsoe, recovered by Misso Joshuah BledsoeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19END OF GAME
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:3895% → 97%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
94.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
95.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+2
94.8%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+1
96.1%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
96.6%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-2
96.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:14
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 26 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
-16.2
TD · Q3 0:45
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
+15.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:10
Timeout KENTUCKY, clock 03:10
+8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com