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MSST

Mississippi State 0 at Alabama 41

ALA
2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:03 · Will Rogers pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 7 yds to the Alab 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:04: Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 35 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:14: Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 53 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +1.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 14:52: Will Reichard 24 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:43: Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 11 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 13:12: Will Rogers pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 8 yds to the MisSt 32 — ALA win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MSST made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 11:57ALA 4th & 9 at MSST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:57MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:31ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:02MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:26MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:10MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 27, down 17
    Close callPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:52ALA 4th & 6 at MSST 6, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:25MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 25, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:34ALA 4th & 1 at MSST 41, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:18MSST 4th & 17 at ALA 46, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:21MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 26, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:12MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 32, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:07ALA 4th & 13 at ALA 30, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:05MSST 4th & 5 at midfield, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:43ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 19, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:23MSST 4th & 1 at ALA 21, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    -0.9%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:47MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 27, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:00ALA 4th & 9 at MSST 46, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:20MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 48, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:04ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:14ALA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:43ALA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:50ALA Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:12ALA Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 2:5497% → 96%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
96.6%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+14
96.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 14 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
96.5%
Jones, Mac pass incomplete to Metchie III, John, PENALTY MS State pass interference (Duncan, Collin) 15 yards to the MS State46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
96.5%
Najee Harris run for 13 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
96.4%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
96.4%
Jones, Mac pass incomplete to Smith, DeVonta, PENALTY MS State pass interference (Duncan, Collin) 10 yards to the MS State23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-6
96.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+7
96.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 7 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
96.2%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
96.2%
Will Reichard 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:594% → 4%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
96.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+48
96.1%
Tucker Day punt for 48 yds , Slade Bolden returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2596% → 96%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
96.0%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
96.0%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+6
95.9%
Mac Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 35 Mac Jones fumbled, recovered by Alab Najee Harris for a 1ST down Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
95.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
95.8%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
95.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for no gain to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
95.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:284% → 5%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
95.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Brad Cumbest for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
95.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
95.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
95.4%
Tucker Day punt for 35 yds, downed at the Alab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:5795% → 96%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
95.3%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
95.4%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the ALABAMA 49 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Deonte Brown) to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 18
OWN 41
0
95.2%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+10
95.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 10 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+14
95.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 14 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
95.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 35 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:295% → 5%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
95.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+1
95.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
95.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
95.4%
Tucker Day punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:4695% → 96%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
95.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 1 yd to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
95.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 3 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+53
96.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 53 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:504% → 4%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
96.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
96.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
96.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+14
96.2%
Tucker Day punt for 33 yds , Slade Bolden returns for 14 yds to the MisSt 41 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:1397% → 97%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+31
96.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 31 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
96.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 9 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
96.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 6Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
96.5%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
97.2%
Will Reichard 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:203% → 3%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
97.3%
K.J. Costello sacked by Phidarian Mathis for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
97.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, broken up by Phidarian MathisSimilar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+4
97.3%
K.J. Costello run for 4 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.4%
Tucker Day punt for 39 yds , Slade Bolden returns for 9 yds to the Alab 34 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11Uncategorized
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:4197% → 98%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
97.2%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-1
97.4%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+8
97.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
50
-5
97.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+8
97.6%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
97.6%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
97.5%
Mac Jones run for 2 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
97.5%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:123% → 3%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
97.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 20 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
97.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
97.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-7
97.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Christopher Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 17
OPP 46
+4
97.5%
Reed Bowman punt for 38 yds , Slade Bolden returns for 4 yds to the Alab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 5:2298% → 99%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
97.5%
Trey Sanders run for 6 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+4
97.5%
Trey Sanders run for 4 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.8%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
97.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 4 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+10
97.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 10 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
97.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 13 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
97.9%
Trey Sanders run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+9
98.0%
Trey Sanders run for 9 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
98.0%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
98.0%
Mac Jones run for 14 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
98.1%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
99.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 11 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:190% → 1%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-1
99.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+5
99.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Reed Bowman punt for 54 yds, downed at the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.4%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:431% → 0%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
99.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+10
98.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 10 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
98.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+8
99.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 8 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
99.6%
Reed Bowman punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
99.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 2 yds to the Alab 35 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (DeVonta Smith) to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 18
OWN 25
+12
99.6%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
99.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 3 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-10
99.6%
Mac Jones sacked by Kobe Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Charlie Scott punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 10 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-4
99.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 5
50
0
99.7%
Reed Bowman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
99.7%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-5
99.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 9Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 13
OWN 9
0
99.7%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 13
OWN 9
+10
99.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 10 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 6:43
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
99.7%
Charlie Scott punt for 39 yds, downed at the MisSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20INT
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:020% → 0%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 1 yd to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+15
99.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dylan Moses) to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
99.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Alab 41Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+11
99.8%
Will Rogers run for 11 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
99.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 2
OPP 22
0
99.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
99.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+12
99.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 12 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
99.8%
Will Rogers pass intercepted Dylan Moses return for 1 yd to the Alab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
10 plays · 99 yds · 3:40100% → 100%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
99.8%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 3 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-1 Yards) to the Alab 2Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 9
OWN 2
+34
99.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 34 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 4 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+11
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 11 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
99.9%
Jones, Mac pass incomplete to Forristall, Miller, PENALTY MS State pass interference (Murphy, Marcus) 15 yards to the MS State10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q4 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 10 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Reed Bowman punt for 31 yds, downed at the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 9 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Thaiu Jones-BellSimilar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Brian Robinson Jr.Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Charlie Scott punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24FUMBLE
12 plays · 30 yds · 4:530% → 0%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 7 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 8 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-5
99.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-1
99.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+19
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 19 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+6
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
99.9%
Rogers, Will pass complete to Williams, Austin for 5 yards to the ALABAMA37, PENALTY MS State holding 10 yards to the MS State48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 20
OWN 48
-5
99.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 25
OWN 43
+1
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd Jo'quavious Marks fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25FUMBLE
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
100.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+25
100.0%
Trey Sanders run for 25 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+21
100.0%
Trey Sanders run for 21 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
100.0%
Trey Sanders run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
100.0%
Trey Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 3Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+21
100.0%
Bryce Young run for no gain to the MisSt 8 Bryce Young fumbled, recovered by MisSt Tyrus Wheat , return for 13 yds to the MisSt 16 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26INT TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:330% → 0%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 13 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-25
100.0%
Will Rogers pass intercepted for a TD Patrick Surtain II return for 25 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27Uncategorized
11 plays · 34 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Lee Witherspoon run for no gain to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
100.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 1 yd to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+4
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 4 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 7 yds to the Alab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:43
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 11 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q1 2:14
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 53 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+1.1
FG · Q2 14:52
Will Reichard 24 yd FG GOOD
+0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com