2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:52 · Collin Hill pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for 9 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:14: TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:43: TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 51 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:43: Collin Hill pass intercepted for a TD Eli Ricks return for 45 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:17: Kevin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +10.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:12: Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SC made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 10:37LSU 4th & 1 at SC 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.4%71% to convertField goal63.2%−0.277% to makePunt62.7%−0.7average punt
- Q1 2:05LSU 4th & 9 at SC 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snapGo for it62.6%−0.325% to convertField goalTheir call62.9%89% to makePunt60.9%−1.9average punt
- Q1 0:17SC 4th & 20 at SC 15, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snapGo for it33.8%−1.69% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.4%average punt
- Q2 7:58SC 4th & 16 at LSU 37, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snapGo for it27.3%−0.716% to convertField goalTheir call28.0%40% to makePunt27.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:22SC 4th & 3 at LSU 27, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 28.1% before the snapGo for it27.9%52% to convertField goalTheir call27.2%−0.762% to makePunt23.3%−4.6average punt
- Q2 1:22SC 4th & 4 at LSU 17, down 21Close callKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.3%47% to convertField goalTheir call10.3%−<0.180% to makePunt6.5%−3.9average punt
- Q3 8:25SC 4th & 15 at LSU 23, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snapGo for it4.2%−1.016% to convertField goalTheir call5.3%70% to makePunt2.2%−3.0average punt
- Q4 7:52SC 4th & 6 at LSU 14, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.137% to convertField goal0.1%84% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 7:34LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.1%97% to makeGo for two65.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:40SC Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.8%97% to makeGo for two36.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:14LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.1%97% to makeGo for two71.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:43LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.3%97% to makeGo for two79.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:43LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:17SC Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.3%97% to makeGo for two15.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:12LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:44LSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:39SC Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLSUDrive 1TD19 plays · 75 yds · 7:1763% → 65%
Q1 14:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
62.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 6 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
62.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 6 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
63.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 7 yds to the SCaro 21Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the SCaro 1Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.9%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the SCaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4535% → 39%
LSUDrive 3FG17 plays · 66 yds · 4:3062% → 63%
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
62.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 15 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
62.6%
Finley, TJ rush for 4 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY LSU illegal formation 5 yards to the LSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+26
62.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 26 yds to the SCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
63.3%
Finley, TJ pass incomplete to Marshall Jr., Terrace, PENALTY SOCAROLINA pass interference (Robinson, Jammie) 15 yards to the SOCAROLINA18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-5
63.4%
Finley, TJ pass incomplete to Marshall Jr., Terrace, PENALTY LSU illegal touching (Marshall Jr., Terrace) 5 yards to the SOCAROLINA19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+10
62.9%
Finley, TJ pass incomplete to McMath, Racey, PENALTY SOCAROLINA holding (Robinson, Jammie) 10 yards to the SOCAROLINA9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 1:4437% → 36%
LSUDrive 5TD10 plays · 65 yds · 3:5663% → 70%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
63.1%
Finley, TJ pass complete to Moore, Koy for 9 yards to the LSU44, PENALTY LSU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the LSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+19
63.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 19 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
64.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Koy Moore for 14 yds to the SCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
64.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 10 yds to the SCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+11
65.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 11 yds to the SCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+2
65.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 2 yds to the SCaro 7Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
70.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6MISSED FG7 plays · 38 yds · 3:0731% → 28%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
69.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Keveon Mullins for 44 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
67.4%
Collin Hill sacked by BJ Ojulari for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 15
OPP 36
-4
69.2%
Collin Hill sacked by Andre Anthony for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 24
OPP 45
+8
70.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 8 yds to the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7INT3 plays · 34 yds · 1:0672% → 73%
SCDrive 8FG4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1931% → 31%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2771% → 77%
Q2 3:43
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+51
77.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 51 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10INT TD4 plays · 19 yds · 0:5223% → 12%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-45
88.3%
Collin Hill pass intercepted for a TD Eli Ricks return for 45 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11MISSED FG9 plays · 58 yds · 1:1511% → 12%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
89.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Nick Muse for 17 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
87.9%
Hill, Collin pass incomplete to Brooks, Jalen, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Ricks, Eli) 14 yards to the LSU23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOCAROLINA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12END OF HALF5 plays · 15 yds · 0:5792% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13TD10 plays · 74 yds · 3:339% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
94.6%
York, Cade kick attempt good, PENALTY LSU false start (Turner, Charles) 5 yards to the SOCAROLINA8, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15MISSED FG6 plays · 52 yds · 2:267% → 6%
LSUDrive 16TD8 plays · 77 yds · 4:0695% → 100%
SCDrive 17DOWNS11 plays · 34 yds · 3:581% → 0%
Q3 3:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
99.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Kevin Harris for 14 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
99.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Kevin Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 42Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 3
50
+3
99.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 3 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
99.7%
Collin Hill sacked by Joseph Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD10 plays · 58 yds · 5:01100% → 100%
SCDrive 19TD11 plays · 75 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Shi Smith for 32 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.9%
Hill, Collin pass incomplete to Smith, Shi, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Lewis, Cameron) 15 yards to the LSU28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOCAROLINA.Similar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for 10 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+9
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for 9 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Josh Vann for 5 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20Uncategorized12 plays · 62 yds · 6:10100% → 100%
Q4 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+24
99.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 24 yds to the SCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:43
Collin Hill pass intercepted for a TD Eli Ricks return for 45 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q3 11:17
Kevin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker White KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q2 3:43
TJ Finley pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 51 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)
+5.7