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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:00 · Max Duffy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 2:44: Matt Ruffolo 34 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +3.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:07: Joey Gatewood run for no gain to the Kent 25 — UK win probability +4.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Chance Poore kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — UK win probability +5.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:38: Zamir White run for 22 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +7.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 7:41: James Cook run for 3 yds to the Geo 39 — UGA win probability +2.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 11:13UK 4th & 3 at UK 47, tiedClose callPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:06UK 4th & 4 at UK 44, down 7Close callPunted · 17.9% before the snapGo for it18.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 13:12UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 39, up 7Close callPunted · 81.4% before the snapGo for it81.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.9%−0.8average punt
- Q2 8:10UK 4th & 1 at UGA 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.7%70% to convertField goal18.4%−2.328% to makePunt18.8%−1.8average punt
- Q2 2:44UK 4th & 11 at UGA 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snapGo for it19.7%−0.924% to convertField goalTheir call20.6%81% to makePunt16.2%−4.4average punt
- Q2 0:18UK 4th & 12 at UK 23, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snapGo for it22.6%−1.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.5%average punt
- Q3 11:38UGA 4th & 1 at UK 22, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.5%71% to convertField goal71.3%−2.272% to makePunt64.7%−8.8average punt
- Q3 0:00UK 4th & 6 at UK 46, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snapGo for it15.0%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.2%average punt
- Q4 9:03UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 49, up 11Close callPunted · 89.3% before the snapGo for it89.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:58UK 4th & 1 at UK 34, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.8%−0.7average punt
- Q4 4:10UK 4th & 6 at UK 43, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.6%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:45UGA 4th & 3 at UK 25, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.0%52% to convertField goal94.8%−0.166% to makePunt93.4%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:07UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.3%97% to makeGo for two82.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:38UGA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.9%97% to makeGo for two82.9%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 3:3913% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD12 plays · 86 yds · 4:5485% → 85%
Q1 10:27
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+20
15.3%
Zamir White run for 5 yds to the Geo 28 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 3:4616% → 17%
UGADrive 4PUNT11 plays · 31 yds · 3:4183% → 82%
Q1 0:50
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+5
17.2%
Stetson Bennett run for 5 yds to the Geo 20 Stetson Bennett fumbled, forced by Jamin Davis, recovered by Geo John FitzPatrick for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+7
17.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to James Cook for 7 yds to the Geo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5FG21 plays · 77 yds · 10:2418% → 25%
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+6
18.2%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Kavosiey Smoke for 6 yds to the Kent 13Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+11
18.1%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 11 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
19.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 12 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+10
21.6%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 10 yds to the Geo 24Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-2
22.4%
Joey Gatewood sacked by Travon Walker for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6INT5 plays · 65 yds · 1:1377% → 80%
UKDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:4925% → 25%
UGADrive 8MISSED FG6 plays · 26 yds · 0:1177% → 79%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
22.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 10 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
22.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 11 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+53
20.7%
TEAM 53 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jamin Davis Jordan Wright return for 32 yds to the Geo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0476% → 84%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
23.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 33 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10FUMBLE8 plays · 35 yds · 3:3916% → 18%
Q3 10:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+23
15.5%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 23 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
17.2%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 5 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
17.6%
Joey Gatewood run for 4 yds to the Geo 36 Joey Gatewood fumbled, forced by Monty Rice, recovered by Geo Richard LeCounteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11INT6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2485% → 86%
Q3 6:40
3RD & 1
50
-5
14.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 5 yds to the 50 yard line GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Geo 40Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+10
14.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 10
50
0
14.1%
Stetson Bennett pass intercepted Kelvin Joseph return for no gain to the Kent 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 28 yds · 5:0516% → 14%
Q3 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+8
14.7%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 8 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
16.1%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Justin Rigg for 2 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
14.1%
Max Duffy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13PUNT11 plays · 40 yds · 5:3285% → 90%
UKDrive 14DOWNS12 plays · 33 yds · 4:4811% → 8%
Q4 6:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
9.3%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 2 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-1
9.3%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Josh Ali for 9 yds to the Kent 48 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 38Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+5
8.5%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Justin Rigg for 5 yds to the Kent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15DOWNS8 plays · 19 yds · 2:2093% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16END OF 4TH QUARTER8 plays · -13 yds · 1:184% → 2%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
3.5%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 2 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-9
3.3%
Joey Gatewood sacked by Adam Anderson and Azeez Ojulari for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 16Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 17
OWN 16
+9
2.2%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
2.5%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 5 yds to the Kent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:38
Zamir White run for 22 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-7.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Chance Poore kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+5.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:07
Joey Gatewood run for no gain to the Kent 25
+4.2