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AUB

Auburn 35 at Ole Miss 28

MISS
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:57 · Mac Brown punt for 50 yds , Eli Stove returns for 7 yds to the Aub 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior−3.1Home team on offense+0.8Garbage-time factor−1.2Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:09: Matt Corral run for 10 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +22.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:57: Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +19.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:12: Tank Bigsby run for 18 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — AUB win probability +21.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:43: Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +37.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:11: Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 42 yds for a TD (Bo Nix pass to Seth Williams for Two-Point Conversion) — AUB win probability +54.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:04AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:40MISS 4th & 5 at AUB 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−1.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:58AUB 4th & 7 at MISS 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:48AUB 4th & 9 at midfield, tied
    Close callWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:28MISS 4th & 5 at AUB 20, tied
    Close callWent for it · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    52.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−8.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:49AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 33, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:57MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−1.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:43AUB 4th & 20 at AUB 15, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−6.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:33MISS 4th & 5 at midfield, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 2:17AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:46MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:11AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:35MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:09MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:57AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:12AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:43MISS Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−1.9
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:11AUB Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    81.2%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    82.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
39.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
39.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 3 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
39.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete, broken up by Jordyn Peters OLE MISS Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
39.6%
Mac Brown punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
39.9%
Shaun Shivers run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+5
39.9%
Shaun Shivers run for 5 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
40.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
40.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, downed at the Miss 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3INT
11 plays · 68 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
40.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 14 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
40.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+24
40.4%
Matt Corral run for 24 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
40.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+5
40.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
40.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
40.7%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+19
40.7%
Snoop Conner run for 19 yds to the Aub 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
40.7%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Aub 5Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
40.7%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Aub 4Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
40.7%
Matt Corral pass intercepted Roger McCreary return for 5 yds to the Aub 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD
14 plays · 95 yds · 5:5358% → 63%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+12
41.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 12 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
41.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 14 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
41.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 7 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 3
OWN 38
-1
41.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+13
41.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
50
+5
41.0%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
41.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
41.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
41.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+12
40.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 12 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
40.8%
Bo Nix run for 9 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+1
40.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
40.8%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
37.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3139% → 47%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
38.6%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
38.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 7 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+37
38.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 37 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
40.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+8
40.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
40.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+10
40.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 10 yds to the Aub 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
40.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
40.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the Aub 6Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
46.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 6 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:2856% → 65%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
43.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 5 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+14
43.6%
Shaun Shivers run for 14 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
42.9%
Shaun Shivers run for 12 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
42.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 9 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 1
OPP 39
-3
42.0%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+21
42.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 21 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
41.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 1 yd to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+6
41.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+10
42.3%
Bo Nix run for 10 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
35.0%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
19 plays · 78 yds · 5:3137% → 51%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
37.4%
Elijah Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 19Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+8
37.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+10
37.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 10 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
38.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 5 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
39.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 1 yd to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+7
38.4%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
50
+2
39.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
39.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
39.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+6
35.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 6 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
38.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon Sanders, PENALTY AU pass interference (N. Pritchett) 15 yards to the AU24, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
39.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 7 yds to the Aub 17Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+2
39.0%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+1
37.9%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
39.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
39.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
50.6%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 25 yds · 2:3056% → 56%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
43.9%
D.J. Williams run for 8 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+1
42.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 1 yd to the Aub 37Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
42.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
42.5%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
43.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+4
42.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
50
-2
41.3%
Shaun Shivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+8
42.9%
Bo Nix run for 8 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-3
41.3%
Bo Nix sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
44.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
48.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 2 yds to the Miss 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 5 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
45.6%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
45.7%
Shaun Shivers run for 10 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
44.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 8 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+8
43.0%
Shaun Shivers run for 8 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
42.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for no gain to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
43.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 9
50
0
44.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Ze'Vian Capers, broken up by A.J. FinleySimilar
Q3 14:48
4TH & 9
50
-25
46.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 25 yards to the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0055% → 51%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
54.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the Aub 24Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+2
54.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+2
53.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 5
OPP 20
-4
51.3%
Luke Logan run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
47.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+1
47.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+6
48.3%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
48.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 49 yds , Elijah Moore returns for no gain to the Miss 11 Elijah Moore fumbled, recovered by Miss Elijah MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
3 plays · 89 yds · 0:3451% → 74%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+19
50.8%
Snoop Conner run for 19 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+60
51.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 60 yds to the Aub 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
73.6%
Matt Corral run for 10 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:0434% → 58%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
66.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
66.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+6
67.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 6 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
65.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 2 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+9
65.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
64.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
65.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Ze'Vian Capers for 7 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+19
63.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 19 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
62.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 38 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
52.2%
Jerrion Ealy rush for 15 yards to the OM40 (Smoke Monday;Owen Pappoe), PENALTY OM illegal shift 5 yards to the OM20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
51.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
51.9%
Matt Corral run for 10 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
53.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
52.8%
Elijah Moore run for 5 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
55.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-3
53.9%
Matt Corral sacked by Smoke Monday for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 37Similar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+7
49.9%
Mac Brown punt for 50 yds , Eli Stove returns for 7 yds to the Aub 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:0851% → 79%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
48.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
48.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+14
49.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 14 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
46.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 9 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+9
43.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
44.2%
Bo Nix run for 12 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
42.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 33
0
43.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+15
46.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 15 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
42.3%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
20.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 18 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 4:2131% → 71%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
30.7%
Snoop Conner run for 8 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+2
33.3%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
31.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
31.0%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
32.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 5 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
34.2%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 5
50
+13
35.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 13 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
36.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+13
38.3%
Snoop Conner run for 13 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
37.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Kenny YeboahSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
37.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+15
34.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 15 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
71.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0040% → 36%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
59.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to A. Schwartz for 9 yards to the AU34 (A.J. Finley;MoMo Sanogo), PENALTY AU holding 10 yards to the AU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
60.3%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Aub 15Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
60.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony Schwartz, broken up by MoMo SanogoSimilar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
62.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth Williams, broken up by Miles BattleSimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
64.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 40 yds, downed at the Miss 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1768% → 67%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
68.2%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 45Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
66.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+10
63.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 5
50
0
67.2%
Mac Brown punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:1440% → 95%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
59.6%
Bo Nix sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 16Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+13
60.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 13 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
58.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
58.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+27
59.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 27 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
5.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 42 yds for a TD (Bo Nix pass to Seth Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21INT
13 plays · 46 yds · 1:0814% → 18%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
13.3%
Matt Corral run for 11 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
14.6%
Matt Corral run for 8 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
17.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 5 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
16.6%
Matt Corral run for 11 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
18.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
18.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 11 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
19.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Kenny YeboahSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-35
17.9%
Matt Corral pass intercepted Jordyn Peters return for 35 yds to the Aub 0 OLE MISS Penalty, illegal forward pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:11
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 42 yds for a TD (Bo Nix pass to Seth Williams for Two-Point Conversion)
-54.5
TD · Q4 5:43
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)
+37.1
TD · Q3 7:09
Matt Corral run for 10 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)
+22.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com