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ALA

Alabama 48 at Tennessee 17

TENN
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:00 · Jarez Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:54: Mac Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +1.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:12: Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +4.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:13: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 38 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +4.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:04: Najee Harris run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +5.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q3 14:27: Eric Gray run for a loss of 2 yards Eric Gray fumbled, forced by Malachi Moore, recovered by Alab Malachi Moore , return for 28 yds, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +6.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 11ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 12:14ALA 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:29TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:11TENN 4th & 2 at ALA 15, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.6%−0.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:56TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 32, down 18
    Close callPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:53ALA 4th & 16 at TENN 46, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:13TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 20, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:13TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 32, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:10TENN 4th & 8 at ALA 46, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:54ALA 4th & 4 at TENN 21, up 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:27TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:22TENN 4th & 9 at ALA 48, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:07TENN 4th & 8 at ALA 34, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:22ALA 4th & 6 at TENN 6, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:12TENN 4th & 2 at ALA 45, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:40ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:54ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:12ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:13TENN Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:04ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:19ALA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:52TENN Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1391% → 91%
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
8.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 12 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
8.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 14 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
8.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 8 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-2
9.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 47Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
9.3%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 1
50
0
9.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Eric Gray at the Tenn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:3610% → 10%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
9.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 12 yds to the Tenn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
9.8%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the Tenn 22Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
9.9%
Eric Gray run for 4 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-3
10.0%
Eric Gray run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 23Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
10.1%
Paxton Brooks punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:4190% → 90%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+30
10.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 30 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
10.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 11 yds to the Tenn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
10.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 13 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
10.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 14 yds to the Tenn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
10.9%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Tenn 1Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.0%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5311% → 11%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
10.5%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+4
10.6%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
10.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+4
10.7%
Paxton Brooks punt for 46 yds , Slade Bolden returns for 4 yds to the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 3:2189% → 91%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
10.7%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+45
10.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 45 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
10.5%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+1
10.8%
Slade Bolden run for 1 yd to the Tenn 16Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+4
11.1%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
11.1%
Najee Harris run for 11 yds to the Tenn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.5%
Mac Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6FG
17 plays · 60 yds · 5:3010% → 12%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
9.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Princeton Fant for 8 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
10.1%
Guarantano, Jarrett pass complete to Gray, Eric for 5 yards to the TENNESSEE38, PENALTY TENNESSEE ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TENNESSEE28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
10.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 11 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
10.3%
Eric Gray run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
50
+4
10.6%
Eric Gray run for 4 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
10.6%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 0:26
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+9
10.7%
Eric Gray run for 9 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
10.8%
Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
11.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+11
10.9%
Ty Chandler run for 11 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
11.2%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-5
11.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Brandon Kennedy) to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+5
11.1%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+5
11.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+1
11.1%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the Alab 15Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+33
12.1%
Brent Cimaglia 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5188% → 93%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
11.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
11.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 13 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
11.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 22 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
11.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 17 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
11.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+7
11.6%
Mac Jones run for 7 yds to the Tenn 7Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
11.8%
Mac Jones run for 2 yds to the Tenn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
11.7%
Jones, Mac pass incomplete, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding (Flowers, Trevon) 3 yards to the TENNESSEE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q2 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
11.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Evan Neal) to the Tenn 7Similar
Q2 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
11.7%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
7.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:529% → 13%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
9.0%
Guarantano, Jarrett pass incomplete to Keyton, Ramel, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Jobe, Josh) 10 yards to the TENNESSEE35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
9.1%
Eric Gray run for 9 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+7
9.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 7 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
9.5%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
9.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+8
9.4%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 8 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
13.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 38 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0087% → 93%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
12.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
12.0%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+45
12.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 45 yds to the Tenn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
12.2%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.6%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:579% → 9%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.6%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
8.5%
Eric Gray run for 3 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
8.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
8.5%
Paxton Brooks punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:5593% → 93%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
7.4%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
7.3%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
6.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 11 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
6.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 5 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+14
6.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 14 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
6.3%
Mac Jones sacked by Roman Harrison for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 46 ALABAMA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Mac Jones) to the Tenn 46Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 16
OPP 46
0
6.3%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Jahleel BillingsleySimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 16
OPP 46
0
6.3%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
6.7%
Charlie Scott punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Eric Gray at the Tenn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:328% → 8%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
8.1%
Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
7.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
7.7%
Eric Gray run for no gain to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
7.9%
Paxton Brooks punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0694% → 94%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
6.3%
Najee Harris run for 16 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
6.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 13 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
6.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 13 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
5.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:288% → 2%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.8%
Eric Gray run for 5 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
8.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+28
1.9%
Eric Gray run for a loss of 2 yards Eric Gray fumbled, forced by Malachi Moore, recovered by Alab Malachi Moore , return for 28 yds, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:072% → 2%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
1.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Javontez Spraggins) to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
1.7%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-2
1.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
1.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
1.5%
Paxton Brooks punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:0498% → 98%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
2.2%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+1
2.2%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+13
2.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 13 yds Slade Bolden fumbled, forced by Trevon Flowers, recovered by Tenn Theo JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:402% → 1%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
1.7%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+4
1.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 4 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-1
1.4%
Eric Gray run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 46Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
1.3%
Paxton Brooks punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:4199% → 100%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
1.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 16 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
1.5%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
1.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 6
50
-5
1.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Evan Neal) to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+3
1.2%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+17
1.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 17 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
1.1%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+16
1.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 16 yds to the Tenn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
0.8%
Mac Jones run for no gain to the Tenn 14Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
0.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 7 yds to the Tenn 7Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+6
0.8%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Tenn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.7%
Harris, Najee rush for loss of 2 yards to the TENNESSEE3, PENALTY TENNESSEE offside (Middleton, Darel) 0 yards to the TENNESSEE1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.5%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:081% → 1%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
0.8%
Eric Gray run for 6 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+4
0.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 4 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
0.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 48 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
0.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 27 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:5199% → 99%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
0.6%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
0.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 7 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+10
0.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 10 yds to the Tenn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
0.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+12
0.6%
Trey Sanders run for 12 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
0.5%
Trey Sanders run for no gain to the Tenn 20Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
-1
0.5%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 21Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
0.6%
Will Reichard 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 41 yds · 4:431% → 0%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.5%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
0.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 7 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
0.4%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 2 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
0.4%
Guarantano, Jarrett pass incomplete, PENALTY ALABAMA roughing passer (Mathis, Phidarian) 15 yards to the ALABAMA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
0.4%
Eric Gray run for 6 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-1
0.3%
Eric Gray run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-4
0.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+12
0.3%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 12 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
0.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 2 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
0.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
0.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
0.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:34100% → 100%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
0.3%
Trey Sanders run for 4 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
0.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for no gain to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+12
0.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
50
+1
0.2%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Tenn 49Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
0.2%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+18
0.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 18 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
0.2%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+20
0.2%
Trey Sanders run for 20 yds to the Tenn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
0.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Roman Harrison) to the Tenn 5Similar
Q4 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
0.1%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Tenn 4Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
Q4 4:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
0.1%
Bryce Young sacked by Matthew Butler for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 6Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
0.2%
Will Reichard 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:030% → 0%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
0.1%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
0.1%
Jabari Small run for no gain to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-5
0.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Malachi Wideman) to the Tenn 32Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+15
0.1%
Brian Maurer run for 15 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
0.1%
Brian Maurer pass complete to Jabari Small for 1 yd to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+5
0.1%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+2
0.1%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 2
OPP 45
-1
0.1%
Jabari Small run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24Uncategorized
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
0.1%
Jarez Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q3 14:27
Eric Gray run for a loss of 2 yards Eric Gray fumbled, forced by Malachi Moore, recovered by Alab Malachi Moore , return for 28 yds, (Will Reichard KICK)
-6.2
TD · Q2 4:04
Najee Harris run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
-5.6
TD · Q2 8:12
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
-4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com