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TA&M

Texas A&M 28 at Mississippi State 14

MSST
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−15.6Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:27: Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +6.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:38: Kellen Mond pass intercepted for a TD Emmanuel Forbes return for 60 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +8.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:05: Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 51 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +12.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:39: Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +8.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:11: Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 32 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +9.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:36TA&M 4th & 14 at TA&M 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:48TA&M 4th & 5 at MSST 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:48MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:57MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:27MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:40TA&M 4th & 19 at TA&M 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−3.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:35MSST 4th & 22 at TA&M 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    25.1%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:39MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:53TA&M 4th & 8 at MSST 41, up 21
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:11TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:51MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 14:57TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:27TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:38MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:05TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:39TA&M Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:11MSST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.4%
K.J. Costello run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
34.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks, broken up by Buddy JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
34.4%
Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
34.9%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
34.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 1 yd to the TexAM 30Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-5
35.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 14
OWN 25
0
35.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 14
OWN 25
0
35.0%
Nik Constantinou punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3INT
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
35.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 7 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
35.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
35.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 19 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
35.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
35.9%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted, touchback. Myles Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
36.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 11 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
36.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 6 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+11
36.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 11 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
36.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 49 yards to the MS3 (Aaron Brule;Martin Emerson), PENALTY TAMU holding (Kenyon Green) 10 yards to the TAMU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+2
36.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 2 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 18
OWN 40
+13
36.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 13 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
36.0%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
36.3%
Nik Constantinou punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
37.9%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
37.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 7 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+1
37.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 1 yd to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+4
37.4%
Tucker Day punt for 42 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 4 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 4:1662% → 67%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+26
38.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 26 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
37.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+10
37.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 10 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
36.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 5 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+4
36.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+12
37.3%
Ainias Smith run for 12 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
36.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
32.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
34.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-8
34.2%
K.J. Costello sacked by Aaron Hansford for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
33.5%
Tucker Day punt blocked by Chris Russell Jr. blocked by Chris Russell Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 21 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jaden Walley for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
29.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks, broken up by Buddy JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
28.9%
K.J. Costello run for 7 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
29.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-7
29.7%
K.J. Costello sacked by DeMarvin Leal for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
28.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete, broken up by McKinnley JacksonSimilar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+15
28.5%
Tucker Day punt 47 yards to the TAMU20, Ainias Smith return to the TAMU20, fumble by Ainias Smith recovered by TAMU Ainias Smith at TAMU19, Ainias Smith for 30 yards to the TAMU49 (Aaron Brule;JaVonta Payton), PENALTY TAMU illegal block declined, PENALTY TAMU illegal block declined, PENALTY TAMU personal foul (Leon ONeal) 15 yards to the MS48, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
30.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+3
30.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 3 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-6
30.0%
K.J. Costello sacked by Brian Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
29.0%
Tucker Day punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
25.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 12 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
25.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-5
25.1%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 27Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 15
OWN 27
0
25.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Ainias Smith, broken up by Martin EmersonSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 15
OWN 27
-5
25.8%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, delay of game (Kellen Mond) to the TexAM 22Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 20
OWN 22
+1
25.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the TexAM 23Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 19
OWN 23
0
26.1%
Nik Constantinou punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
17 plays · 27 yds · 5:3325% → 22%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
25.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
25.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
26.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
26.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+4
26.5%
K.J. Costello run for 4 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+8
26.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 8 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
26.5%
K.J. Costello run for no gain to the TexAM 37Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-3
26.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 13
OPP 40
-5
25.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Malik Heath) to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 18
OPP 45
+19
25.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jaden Walley for 19 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-9
27.0%
K.J. Costello sacked by Jayden Peevy for a loss of 9 yards to the TexAM 35Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 19
OPP 35
-9
23.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the TexAM 29 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal block (Jaden Walley) to the TexAM 44Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 28
OPP 44
0
22.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 28
OPP 44
+6
22.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 22
OPP 38
0
22.4%
Reed Bowman punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
20.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13INT TD
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:2279% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
21.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 13 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
20.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Chase LaneSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
20.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 11 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
19.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 15 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
19.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
19.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-60
27.7%
Kellen Mond pass intercepted for a TD Emmanuel Forbes return for 60 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3370% → 84%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Chase LaneSimilar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
30.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 19 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
27.9%
Devon Achane run for 5 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+51
15.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 51 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
19.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
19.3%
K.J. Costello sacked by Buddy Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 8 K.J. Costello fumbled, recovered by TexAM Jayden Peevy , return for 0 yards , return for 19 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:4685% → 94%
Q3 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
14.6%
Ainias Smith run for 2 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
6.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
8.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
9.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams, broken up by DeMarvin LealSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
8.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-7
9.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Micheal Clemons and Tyree Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+8
8.6%
Tucker Day punt for 38 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 8 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
5.7%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
5.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 6 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
5.7%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
5.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 9 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
5.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for no gain to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+1
5.3%
Kellen Mond run for 1 yd to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
5.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
5.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
5.6%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Ainias Smith, broken up by Aaron BruleSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
6.0%
Nik Constantinou punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 6:005% → 14%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
4.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 4 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+5
4.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 5 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+1
4.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
4.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, broken up by McKinnley JacksonSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+13
4.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 13 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
3.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
3.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+17
3.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 17 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
4.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
4.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for no gain to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+10
4.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 10 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
4.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+32
13.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 32 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
7.4%
Devon Achane run for 11 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
6.9%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
6.7%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the TexAM 40Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
6.9%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jalen Wydermyer, broken up by Shawn Preston Jr.Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
7.6%
Nik Constantinou punt for 54 yds, downed at the MisSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
6.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 10
-5
6.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Greg Eiland) to the MisSt 5Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+16
6.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 16 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
6.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for no gain to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-4
6.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 17Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 14
OWN 17
+3
6.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 3 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 11
OWN 20
+22
6.4%
Tucker Day punt for 42 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 22 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:4296% → 98%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
4.0%
Ainias Smith run for no gain to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+14
4.0%
Ainias Smith run for 14 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
3.9%
Ainias Smith run for 8 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+3
3.9%
Ainias Smith run for 3 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
3.9%
Ainias Smith run for 3 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+3
3.9%
Ainias Smith run for 3 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+8
1.9%
Ainias Smith run for 8 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
2.0%
Ainias Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:05
Kellen Mond pass complete to Chase Lane for 51 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q4 11:11
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 32 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q3 8:39
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com