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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:26 · TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tenn 23 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:47: Kelvin Joseph 41 Yd Interception Return (Matt Ruffolo Kick) — UK win probability +7.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:33: Jamin Davis 85 Yd Interception Return (Matt Ruffolo Kick) — UK win probability +8.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:36: Ty Chandler 4 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick) — TENN win probability +8.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:24: Allen Dailey Jr. 1 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Matt Ruffolo Kick) — UK win probability +15.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- FG · Q3 1:02: Matt Ruffolo 27 Yd Field Goal — UK win probability +5.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 13:13UK 4th & 13 at UK 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snapGo for it31.9%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.1%average punt
- Q1 8:49TENN 4th & 17 at UK 37, tiedClose callPunted · 67.0% before the snapGo for it66.9%−0.215% to convertField goal67.1%40% to makePuntTheir call67.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:02TENN 4th & 3 at UK 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.2%53% to convertField goal66.8%−0.438% to makePunt66.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 14:52UK 4th & 23 at UK 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snapGo for it32.8%−1.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.2%average punt
- Q2 6:18UK 4th & 3 at TENN 12, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snapGo for it56.5%50% to convertField goalTheir call55.6%−0.986% to makePunt47.8%−8.7average punt
- Q2 5:09TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 34, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt40.2%−1.3average punt
- Q2 1:16UK 4th & 6 at UK 29, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snapGo for it51.5%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.1%average punt
- Q2 0:50TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 31, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snapGo for it42.8%−0.757% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.5%average punt
- Q3 13:13TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 30, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 40.9% before the snapGo for it42.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.3%−1.8average punt
- Q3 4:59TENN 4th & 17 at TENN 19, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snapGo for it18.1%−2.913% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.0%average punt
- Q3 1:02UK 4th & 4 at TENN 9, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snapGo for it87.4%43% to convertField goalTheir call86.9%−0.589% to makePunt78.4%−9.0average punt
- Q4 14:52TENN 4th & 14 at TENN 21, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it4.3%−3.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q4 7:19TENN 4th & 8 at UK 10, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−0.628% to convertField goal0.9%88% to makePunt-0.2%−1.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q2 12:47UK Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.7%97% to makeGo for two40.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:33UK Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.5%97% to makeGo for two48.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:36TENN Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.6%97% to makeGo for two45.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:24UK Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.2%97% to makeGo for two77.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:54UK Touchdown, up 26 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4230% → 31%
TENNDrive 2PUNT12 plays · 32 yds · 4:1269% → 68%
Q1 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+9
69.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 9 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
69.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 5 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
69.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 3 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 11
OPP 31
-6
69.1%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Jamar Watson for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3FUMBLE5 plays · 25 yds · 2:1732% → 32%
TENNDrive 4FUMBLE6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1369% → 69%
Q1 5:02
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+4
68.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 4 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
69.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 8 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-1
69.1%
Jarrett Guarantano run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 27 Jarrett Guarantano fumbled, recovered by KentSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 4:0033% → 33%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
67.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 4 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+8
67.1%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 8 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
66.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 10 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 11
OWN 48
-10
66.2%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Drake Jackson) to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 21
OWN 38
-2
66.5%
Terry Wilson sacked by LaTrell Bumphus for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 36Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 23
OWN 36
0
67.1%
Max Duffy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Eric Gray at the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6INT TD5 plays · 20 yds · 1:5367% → 61%
Q2 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+11
67.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 11 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7INT TD7 plays · 47 yds · 2:0760% → 53%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+25
59.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 25 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
60.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 10 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
61.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 9 yds to the Kent 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8INT4 plays · -11 yds · 0:4150% → 49%
Q2 9:42
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
48.8%
J.T. Shrout pass intercepted Tyrell Ajian return for no gain to the Tenn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9FG8 plays · 25 yds · 3:1754% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD15 plays · 75 yds · 4:3443% → 49%
Q2 5:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
41.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 4 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 0:1652% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2143% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:2456% → 58%
TENNDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3744% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15TD12 plays · 76 yds · 5:4157% → 81%
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+16
42.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 16 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+14
39.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 14 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
39.0%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 25 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+2
37.8%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tenn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.7%
Allen Dailey Jr. 1 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Matt Ruffolo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0823% → 20%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
22.3%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Jordan Wright for a loss of 9 yards to the Tenn 17Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 19
OWN 17
+1
21.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 1 yd to the Tenn 18Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 17
OWN 19
+1
20.0%
Paxton Brooks punt for 40 yds , Josh Ali returns for 1 yd to the Kent 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17FG8 plays · 49 yds · 3:4884% → 95%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+33
15.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 18 yds to the TENNESSEE 40 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
10.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 5 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:046% → 5%
Q3 0:31
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-17
6.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ramel Keyton for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 28 TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-14 Yards) to the Tenn 14Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+7
5.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jacob Warren for 7 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19TD7 plays · 54 yds · 3:4796% → 100%
TENNDrive 20DOWNS11 plays · 62 yds · 3:261% → 0%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+24
0.3%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Malachi Wideman for 24 yds to the Kent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21Uncategorized12 plays · 67 yds · 6:41100% → 100%
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
0.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Savion Williams) to the Kent 15Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+6
0.2%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Michael Drennen II for 6 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+5
0.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tenn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:24
Allen Dailey Jr. 1 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Matt Ruffolo Kick)
-15.4
TD · Q2 1:36
Ty Chandler 4 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)
+8.8
TD · Q2 10:33
Jamin Davis 85 Yd Interception Return (Matt Ruffolo Kick)
-8.7