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MISS

Ole Miss 21 at Arkansas 33

ARK
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Home team on offense+19.5Score differential+9.2Garbage-time factor+10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.3Time remaining−0.6Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:35: Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 7 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +13.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:06: Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 21 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +21.5 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q4 7:36: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ARK win probability +12.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:30: Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +26.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 3:07: Matt Corral pass intercepted for a TD Grant Morgan return for 23 yds for a TD, (A.J. Reed KICK) — ARK win probability +20.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:57MISS 4th & 1 at ARK 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    45.5%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 13:57MISS 4th & 1 at ARK 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:58ARK 4th & 1 at MISS 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:47MISS 4th & 15 at ARK 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    41.2%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:50ARK 4th & 6 at MISS 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:40MISS 4th & 8 at ARK 31, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    25.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:12ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 38, up 17
    Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:42MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:41ARK 4th & 7 at MISS 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−7.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:41MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 25, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:20ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 42, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 15:00MISS 4th & 8 at ARK 21, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−5.9
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:43MISS 4th & 1 at ARK 1, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.9%−9.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 10:38ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 12, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  18. Q3 8:42MISS 4th & 6 at ARK 15, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−6.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00ARK 4th & 16 at ARK 23, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−3.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:36MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 27, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:30ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 48, up 5
    Close callPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−0.7
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:07MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 24, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:47ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:40ARK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:35MISS Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:06MISS Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:36ARK Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:30MISS Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:07ARK Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
51.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 5 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
51.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Rakeem Boyd, broken up by Jaylon JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
51.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2FUMBLE
13 plays · 55 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
51.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 14 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
51.1%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
51.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+4
51.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 4 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+7
51.2%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
51.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 8 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+3
51.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
51.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+13
51.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 13 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
51.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Ark 2Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
51.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Ark 1Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Ark 1Similar
Q1 13:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
51.2%
Matt Corral run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 5 Matt Corral fumbled, recovered by Ark Jalen CatalonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 4:1152% → 57%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
51.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 5 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 5
OWN 10
0
51.8%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete, broken up by Jamar RichardsonSimilar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+2
51.6%
Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 3
OWN 12
+5
51.5%
Reid Bauer punt 46 yards to the OM42, Jonathan Mingo return to the AR45 (J. Marshall), PENALTY OM roughing the kicker (Ty Rocconi) 5 yards to the AR17, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
51.9%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+10
52.0%
Trelon Smith run for 10 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+55
52.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 55 yds to the Miss 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
52.7%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
52.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 1
OPP 4
0
52.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Miss 4Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+3
52.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd for a TD, (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
55.6%
Matt Corral sacked by Julius Coates for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+23
56.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 23 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
55.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 8 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+13
54.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 13 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
54.4%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
54.5%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 11
OPP 32
-4
55.3%
Matt Corral sacked by Grant Morgan for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 15
OPP 36
0
56.2%
Mac Brown punt for 34 yds, downed at the Ark 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:4258% → 58%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+17
57.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 17 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
57.6%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+9
57.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Hudson Henry for 9 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
57.8%
Feleipe Franks run for 4 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
58.3%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
58.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 5 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
58.6%
Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+1
59.7%
Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-7
58.9%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Ryder Anderson for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 39
+8
57.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 57 yds , Elijah Moore returns for 8 yds to the Miss 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
59.0%
Elijah Moore run for 8 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 2
OWN 20
0
58.7%
Matt Corral pass intercepted Hudson Clark return for no gain to the Miss 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:2561% → 62%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
61.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 18 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
61.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 5 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+18
61.2%
Treylon Burks run for 18 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
61.2%
Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
61.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 6Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
60.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
62.4%
A.J. Reed 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-35
72.6%
Matt Corral pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Catalon return for 35 yds for a TD, (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
72.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+34
72.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 34 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
70.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
70.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete, broken up by Hayden HenrySimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+2
71.9%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 8
OPP 31
0
72.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5776% → 78%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
76.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
76.0%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Hal Northern and Ashanti Cistrunk for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+5
77.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, offside defense (Sincere David) to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+3
78.0%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
77.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
75.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-2
75.9%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+9
76.0%
Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
76.0%
Mac Brown punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Treylon Burks at the Ark 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 3:2180% → 90%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
80.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+13
80.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Hudson Henry for 13 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
81.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Mike Woods, broken up by A.J. FinleySimilar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
80.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+12
80.5%
Treylon Burks run for 12 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
81.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-7
81.1%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+17
80.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyson Morris for 17 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
81.1%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
81.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 8 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 2
OPP 10
-5
80.7%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
90.3%
A.J. Reed 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
88.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 21Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
88.2%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
88.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario Drummond, broken up by Grant MorganSimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
88.4%
Mac Brown punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Treylon Burks at the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:4291% → 91%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
91.2%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
91.1%
Feleipe Franks run for 7 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+4
91.1%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
91.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
91.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, offside defense (KD Hill) to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-5
91.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Tyson Morris) to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+4
91.2%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
91.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16DOWNS
18 plays · 74 yds · 4:1710% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
89.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 13 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
89.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
89.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+1
89.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+13
89.2%
Snoop Conner run for 13 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
88.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
88.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 9 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+10
88.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 10 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
87.8%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
88.1%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-1
88.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 21Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+16
89.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 16 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
87.8%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Kenny YeboahSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
88.4%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.2%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Ark 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
92.8%
Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+8
92.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 8 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
93.0%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 9Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+3
92.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
92.8%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
92.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 4:078% → 22%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
92.2%
Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+17
91.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 17 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
91.0%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
90.8%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
91.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
90.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-1
90.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 15Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
91.4%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Ark 15Similar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+8
91.8%
Snoop Conner run for 8 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
78.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 7 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Ricky Stromberg) to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-3
86.0%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Lakia Henry for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 17 Feleipe Franks fumbled, recovered by Miss LeDarrius Cox , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
78.3%
Matt Corral pass intercepted Greg Brooks Jr. return for 10 yds to the Ark 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:0086% → 88%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
86.1%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+15
86.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyson Morris for 15 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
86.4%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+10
86.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 10 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
87.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 4
50
0
87.6%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted Jon Haynes return for no gain to the Miss 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0017% → 20%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
82.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+14
83.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 14 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
81.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+8
80.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 8 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
80.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
80.4%
Matt Corral pass intercepted Hudson Clark return for no gain to the Ark 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:4089% → 90%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
88.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Noah Gatlin) to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 15
OWN 24
0
88.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Tyson MorrisSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 15
OWN 24
-1
88.1%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 23
0
90.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 23
0
89.8%
Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:3415% → 38%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
85.3%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+10
84.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 10 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
84.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 9 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+5
83.5%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
82.8%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
82.4%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+7
83.5%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
62.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 21 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:3078% → 94%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
78.0%
Treylon Burks run for 11 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
80.3%
Treylon Burks run for 5 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+8
80.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 8 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
81.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 3 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
80.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+2
80.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
81.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+19
81.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 19 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
81.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 7 yards to the OM9 (MoMo Sanogo;Jaylon Jones), PENALTY OM substitution infraction 5 yards to the OM11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 5
OPP 11
-1
81.4%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
81.4%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
93.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:069% → 38%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
91.1%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-1
91.3%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
91.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah Moore, broken up by Grant MorganSimilar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+47
92.0%
MoMo Sanogo run for 47 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
88.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 15 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
88.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 10 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
84.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 12 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
85.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 5 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
86.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
85.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Rakeem BoydSimilar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
83.9%
Reid Bauer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28INT TD
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3925% → 5%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
74.7%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 12
OWN 14
-23
95.0%
Matt Corral pass intercepted for a TD Grant Morgan return for 23 yds for a TD, (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 29INT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
94.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-3
94.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 13
OWN 28
-10
95.1%
Matt Corral rush for 6 yards to the OM34 (Hayden Henry;J. Marshall), PENALTY OM holding (Royce Newman) 10 yards to the OM18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 23
OWN 18
+6
95.1%
Tylan Knight run for 6 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 17
OWN 24
-18
95.2%
Matt Corral pass intercepted Malik Hornsby return for 18 yds to the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
97.5%
Feleipe Franks run for 14 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
97.5%
Trelon Smith run for 15 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:30
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
-26.4
TD · Q4 12:06
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 21 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
-21.5
TD · Q4 3:07
Matt Corral pass intercepted for a TD Grant Morgan return for 23 yds for a TD, (A.J. Reed KICK)
+20.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com