Try the model
UGA

Georgia 24 at Alabama 41

ALA
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:31 · Sam Johnson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+7.2Home team on offense−4.7Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:06: Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +12.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:23: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +12.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:00: Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 90 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +20.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:51: Najee Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +15.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:32: Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 13 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +8.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 11:07UGA 4th & 23 at UGA 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:09ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:01UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:33ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:02ALA 4th & 5 at UGA 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:00ALA 4th & 4 at UGA 15, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:42UGA 4th & 6 at ALA 33, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:11UGA 4th & 5 at ALA 44, up 4
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−2.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:31ALA 4th & 12 at UGA 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    50.9%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:49UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 43, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:05UGA 4th & 10 at ALA 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:16ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:53UGA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:49UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:06ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:23UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:00ALA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:51ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:32ALA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
68.4%
Mac Jones pass intercepted Richard LeCounte return for no gain to the Alab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:2732% → 32%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
68.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 10 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
68.2%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to George PickensSimilar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-4
68.2%
Stetson Bennett pass intercepted Justin Eboigbe return for 4 yds to the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:4468% → 69%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
68.4%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+16
68.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 16 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
68.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 40 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 2:0331% → 31%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
68.7%
Bennett, Stetson pass complete to Burton, Jermaine for 3 yards to the GEORGIA38, PENALTY GEORGIA holding 10 yards to the GEORGIA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+4
68.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+5
68.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to James Cook for 5 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-12
69.0%
Stetson Bennett sacked by Christian Barmore and Dylan Moses for a loss of 12 yards to the Geo 22Similar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 23
OWN 22
0
69.4%
Jake Camarda punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:5169% → 70%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
69.3%
Najee Harris run for 17 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
69.6%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
69.5%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+8
69.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 8 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
69.7%
Sam Johnson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:5931% → 30%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
69.5%
Zamir White run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 15Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+12
69.8%
Zamir White run for 12 yds to the Geo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
69.7%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Darnell Washington, broken up by DJ DaleSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
69.8%
Zamir White run for 3 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
70.0%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Kearis JacksonSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+2
70.3%
Jake Camarda punt for 58 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 2 yds to the Alab 32 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (7 Yards) to the Alab 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2270% → 70%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
69.9%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+1
70.1%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 16Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+8
69.9%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
70.4%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
70.3%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
70.2%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
69.8%
Sam Johnson punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:3730% → 36%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
69.9%
Kenny McIntosh run for 5 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+7
69.5%
Kenny McIntosh run for 7 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
69.4%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Kearis JacksonSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+24
69.5%
Kendall Milton run for 24 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
68.9%
Kendall Milton run for 1 yd to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
68.5%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+10
69.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to James Cook for 10 yds to the Alab 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
64.5%
Zamir White run for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:4367% → 67%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 12 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
67.6%
Najee Harris run for 11 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
68.2%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
68.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
68.3%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie III, broken up by Tyson CampbellSimilar
Q1 0:02
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
67.4%
Sam Johnson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10TD
2 plays · 86 yds · 0:1234% → 39%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
66.0%
Kendall Milton run for 4 yds to the Geo 18Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+82
60.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to James Cook for 82 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 5:4561% → 62%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
60.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 17 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
61.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 13 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
62.0%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
61.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 12 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-12
61.9%
Mac Jones sacked by Malik Herring for a loss of 12 yards to the Geo 45 ALABAMA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Geo 45Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 22
OPP 45
+3
60.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 3 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 19
OPP 42
+9
59.9%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (9 Yards) to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
62.3%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
62.1%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Geo 25Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+4
61.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 4 yds to the Geo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
61.9%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Geo 16Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+2
61.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Geo 14Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 3
OPP 14
-1
58.6%
Mac Jones sacked by Jermaine Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 15Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
62.1%
Will Reichard 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:0839% → 48%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
60.6%
James Cook run for 5 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
58.8%
James Cook run for 3 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+19
58.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to George Pickens for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
50
+7
56.8%
Stetson Bennett run for 7 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
56.4%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Kearis JacksonSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+6
56.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to John FitzPatrick for 6 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
56.3%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
56.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to James Cook for 4 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
56.3%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Kenny McIntoshSimilar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+50
52.0%
Jack Podlesny 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2953% → 68%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
52.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 38 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
55.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 2 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
56.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Geo 35Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+15
54.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 15 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
55.7%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Geo 17Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
67.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14TD
15 plays · 66 yds · 2:3740% → 57%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
60.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to George Pickens for 10 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
58.4%
Stetson Bennett run for 9 yds to the ALABAMA 47 ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+5
57.4%
Zamir White run for 5 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
57.6%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
57.4%
Kendall Milton run for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+19
57.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to George Pickens for 19 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
55.2%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
55.5%
Stetson Bennett run for 6 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
56.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 3 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+6
57.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (6 Yards) to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
54.9%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Darnell WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
54.8%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
43.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15END OF HALF
9 plays · 41 yds · 0:2050% → 59%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
49.5%
Najee Harris run for 14 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
50.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 14 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
51.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 13 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
53.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+52
58.5%
Will Reichard 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:3948% → 49%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
52.5%
Kendall Milton run for 8 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
51.6%
Kendall Milton run for 4 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
51.1%
Stetson Bennett sacked by Christian Barmore for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 49 Stetson Bennett fumbled, recovered by GeoSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+7
51.7%
Zamir White run for 7 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
51.0%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
51.3%
Jake Camarda punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:2953% → 51%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
53.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 13 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
53.5%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+14
53.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 14 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
54.4%
Jones, Mac pass incomplete to Waddle, Jaylen, PENALTY GEORGIA holding 10 yards to the ALABAMA47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
56.9%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+10
57.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 10 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
57.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 1 yd to the Geo 38Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+4
57.1%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-7
56.7%
Mac Jones sacked by Nakobe Dean for a loss of 7 yards to the Geo 41Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
51.0%
Sam Johnson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:3649% → 55%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
51.0%
Zamir White run for 4 yds to the Geo 13Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+5
50.6%
Zamir White run for 5 yds to the Geo 18Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+3
50.8%
Zamir White run for 3 yds to the Geo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
47.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 14 yds to the Geo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
45.8%
Jermaine Burton run for 4 yds to the Geo 39Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
44.0%
James Cook run for 2 yds to the Geo 41Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+2
44.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to George Pickens for 2 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
45.2%
Jake Camarda punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
2 plays · 91 yds · 0:4046% → 66%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
46.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 10Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+90
66.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 90 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20INT
6 plays · 46 yds · 0:5435% → 38%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+36
65.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 36 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
59.6%
James Cook run for 10 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
59.8%
Stetson Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
60.5%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to George PickensSimilar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-42
62.3%
Stetson Bennett pass intercepted Malachi Moore return for 42 yds to the Alab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:5470% → 86%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
70.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 11 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+34
71.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 34 yds to the Geo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
72.2%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Geo 8Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-2
72.2%
Jaylen Waddle run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 10Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+8
70.8%
Jones, Mac pass incomplete to Smith, DeVonta, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference 8 yards to the GEORGIA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.0%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22INT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5619% → 16%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
81.1%
GEORGIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Geo 33Similar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 15
OWN 33
0
84.3%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+9
84.7%
Zamir White run for 9 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-28
84.0%
Stetson Bennett pass intercepted Daniel Wright return for 18 yds to the ALABAMA 40 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Geo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 5:0887% → 97%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
86.7%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 43 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 18
OWN 47
+3
85.5%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 15
50
+10
85.8%
Jones, Mac pass incomplete to Waddle, Jaylen, PENALTY GEORGIA holding 10 yards to the GEORGIA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
86.7%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+3
86.9%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Geo 32Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+3
86.9%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Geo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
87.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Geo 24Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+3
87.8%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Geo 21Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+7
87.3%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the Geo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
88.3%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Geo 13Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
96.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 13 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 24MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:174% → 4%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.7%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to James Cook, broken up by Malachi MooreSimilar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
95.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to George Pickens for 3 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+19
95.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 19 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
95.7%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Kearis Jackson, broken up by Christian BarmoreSimilar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
95.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
95.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 18 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
95.2%
James Cook run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 22Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 14
OPP 22
0
95.6%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Kearis JacksonSimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+4
96.3%
Stetson Bennett run for 4 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
96.4%
Jack Podlesny 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
10 plays · 43 yds · 5:3098% → 99%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
97.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 7 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
97.7%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
98.0%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+10
98.0%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
98.3%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 5
50
+5
98.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
98.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
98.7%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the Geo 36Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
98.8%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:00
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 90 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+20.3
TD · Q3 0:51
Najee Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+15.2
TD · Q2 0:23
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com