2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:15 · Harrison Smith punt for 17 yds, downed at the Vandy 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:09: Collin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +5.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:00: Kevin Harris run for 25 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +7.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:01: Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 22 yds for a TD (Pierson Cooke KICK) — VAN win probability +8.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:22: Collin Hill run for 10 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +9.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:21: Parker White 40 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +5.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 15:00SC 4th & 12 at SC 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snapGo for it80.7%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.8%average punt
- Q1 13:48VAN 4th & 18 at VAN 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snapGo for it19.7%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.8%average punt
- Q1 5:19SC 4th & 13 at VAN 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snapGo for it75.5%−0.220% to convertField goalTheir call75.8%66% to makePunt74.7%−1.1average punt
- Q1 0:20VAN 4th & 9 at SC 11, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.9% before the snapGo for it25.4%−0.327% to convertField goalTheir call25.7%87% to makePunt23.4%−2.3average punt
- Q2 12:24SC 4th & 9 at VAN 36, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 73.7% before the snapGo for it73.6%32% to convertField goalTheir call73.5%−0.142% to makePunt73.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 9:10VAN 4th & 2 at SC 3, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.9%49% to convertField goal27.7%−1.293% to makePunt23.1%−5.8average punt
- Q2 2:09SC 4th & 1 at VAN 1, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.9%59% to convertField goal68.8%−2.294% to makePunt63.7%−7.3average punt
- Q2 1:06VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 21, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snapGo for it18.2%−0.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%average punt
- Q3 14:53VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 31, down 10Close callWent for it · 19.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.6%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt20.1%average punt
- Q3 4:15VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snapGo for it9.5%−2.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.7%average punt
- Q3 0:21SC 4th & 9 at VAN 22, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snapGo for it91.7%−0.730% to convertField goalTheir call92.4%72% to makePunt87.7%−4.7average punt
- Q4 15:00VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 47, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.826% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q4 12:56VAN 4th & 15 at VAN 29, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 10:12VAN 4th & 25 at VAN 5, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 7:55SC 4th & 18 at SC 31, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 4:51VAN 4th & 8 at SC 37, down 34Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.135% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.140% to makePunt0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q2 2:09SC Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.8%97% to makeGo for two78.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:00SC Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two86.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:01VAN Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.7%97% to makeGo for two19.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:22SC Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.3%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:07SC Touchdown, up 26 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
- Q4 10:21SC Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
VANDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
SCDrive 3FG15 plays · 42 yds · 6:5884% → 81%
Q1 12:17
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+6
15.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Kevin Harris for 6 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+12
15.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Kevin Harris for 12 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+7
15.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Nick Muse for 7 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-5
17.7%
Collin Hill sacked by Dayo Odeyingbo and Daevion Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4MISSED FG13 plays · 64 yds · 4:5918% → 21%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
19.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 23 yds to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+13
19.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 13 yds to the SCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
19.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for no gain to the SCaro 11Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
19.2%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr., broken up by Jaycee HornSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5MISSED FG8 plays · 44 yds · 2:5679% → 78%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+21
21.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Xavier Legette for 21 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6DOWNS9 plays · 60 yds · 3:1422% → 25%
Q2 12:24
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+33
23.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 33 yds to the SCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
24.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 2 yds to the SCaro 9Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+6
26.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 6 yds to the SCaro 3Similar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 2
OPP 3
-1
25.4%
Ken Seals sacked by Ernest Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7TD13 plays · 96 yds · 6:0874% → 82%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+32
25.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Nick Muse for 32 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
23.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Xavier Legette for 9 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+8
22.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Nick Muse for 8 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+14
22.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Shi Smith for 14 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
22.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Kevin Harris for 14 yds to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5519% → 18%
Q2 1:06
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+16
17.5%
Harrison Smith punt for 53 yds , Jammie Robinson returns for 16 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9END OF HALF4 plays · 9 yds · 0:1383% → 82%
VANDrive 10DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
17.5%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr., broken up by R.J. RoderickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11TD2 plays · 34 yds · 0:2983% → 90%
VANDrive 12TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5911% → 21%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
11.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 12 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
12.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Tyrell Alexander for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
12.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 1 yd to the SCaro 35Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+13
12.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 13 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
20.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 22 yds for a TD (Pierson Cooke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3982% → 92%
VANDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q3 4:15
3RD & 13
OWN 31
0
9.4%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Ben Bresnahan, broken up by Jammie RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15FG8 plays · 26 yds · 2:5293% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 0:214% → 3%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
3.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for 4 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-5
3.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jamauri Wakefield for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
3.5%
Ken Seals pass incomplete VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 47
+6
3.4%
Harrison Smith punt for 47 yds , Jammie Robinson returns for 6 yds to the SCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17TD1 play · 88 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
1.4%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 11 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
1.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Keyon Henry-Brooks for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-8
1.3%
Ken Seals sacked by Rick Sandidge for a loss of 8 yards to the Vandy 29Similar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
1.2%
Harrison Smith punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19TD1 play · 47 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:12
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-6
0.2%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 5 Mike Wright fumbled, recovered by Vandy Mike WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:55
2ND & 9
OPP 0
+2
0.2%
Luke Doty run for 2 yds to the SCaro 42 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the SCaro 42Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 13
OWN 36
-5
0.2%
Kai Kroeger punt 51 yards to the VANDY13, fair catch by Johnson, Cam, PENALTY SC illegal formation 5 yards to the SC31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 18
OWN 31
+6
0.3%
Kai Kroeger punt for 52 yds , Cam Johnson returns for 6 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22INT7 plays · 40 yds · 0:000% → 0%
SCDrive 23FUMBLE2 plays · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
VANDrive 24FUMBLE1 play · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
0.1%
Tyrell Alexander run for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 34 Tyrell Alexander fumbled, recovered by SCaro Jaylan Foster , return for 7 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:22
Collin Hill run for 10 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q3 9:01
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 22 yds for a TD (Pierson Cooke KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q3 13:00
Kevin Harris run for 25 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)
-7.6