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MIZ

Missouri 45 at LSU 41

LSU
2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:48 · Grant McKinniss punt for 66 yds for a touchback LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (Eli Ricks)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Pregame prior−13.1Home team on offense+6.4Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score differential+1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:25: Tyrion Davis-Price 1 Yd Run (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +12.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:46: Micah Wilson 41 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick) — MIZ win probability +15.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:36: Terrace Marshall Jr. 75 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +19.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:36: Tyler Badie 21 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick) — MIZ win probability +19.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:18: Niko Hea 5 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick) — MIZ win probability +33.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:56LSU 4th & 5 at MIZ 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:15MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:47LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:16LSU 4th & 3 at MIZ 24, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%−0.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:26LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 33, up 3
    Close callPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:56MIZ 4th & 10 at LSU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:57LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:53LSU 4th & 4 at MIZ 45, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−2.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:48MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 34, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:18LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:00LSU 4th & 17 at MIZ 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−3.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:07MIZ 4th & 15 at LSU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.7%
    36% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:04LSU 4th & 15 at MIZ 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%
    38% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:16LSU 4th & 1 at MIZ 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−41.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−42.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:07MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:03LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:45LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:22MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:41LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:33MIZ Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:25LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:46MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 10:36LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:36MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:18MIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3879% → 79%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
21.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
21.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 9 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
21.2%
Tauskie Dove 58 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4721% → 25%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
21.4%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 14 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
21.6%
Chris Curry run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+20
21.6%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 20 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
22.0%
Chris Curry run for 4 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-7
22.1%
Myles Brennan sacked by Devin Nicholson for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 46Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+8
22.1%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 8 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+17
22.3%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 17 yds to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
22.9%
Chris Curry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 23Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+17
23.1%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Racey McMath for 17 yds to the Misso 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
25.1%
Terrace Marshall Jr. 6 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3276% → 75%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
24.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Micah Wilson for 4 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-2
24.0%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+5
24.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 5 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
24.9%
Grant McKinniss pass incomplete to Jalen Knox, broken up by JaCoby StevensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:2026% → 31%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+32
26.1%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 32 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
26.4%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Chasen Hines) to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+11
26.7%
Myles Brennan run for 1 yd to the Misso 19 MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jarvis Ware) to the Misso 9Similar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 4
OPP 9
0
27.0%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+7
27.1%
Myles Brennan run for 7 yds to the Misso 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
27.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Misso 2Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.8%
Terrace Marshall Jr. 2 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1570% → 74%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
29.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 7 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
29.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Daniel Parker Jr.Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
30.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D'ionte Smith for 15 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
29.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 5 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
29.5%
Jalen Knox run for 6 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
29.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D'ionte Smith for 7 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+3
29.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
29.9%
Connor Bazelak run for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+29
25.6%
Tyler Badie 29 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3129% → 28%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.6%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to John Emery Jr.Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
28.5%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 8 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
28.8%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Trey Palmer, broken up by Ennis Rakestraw Jr.Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
28.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 42 yds , Kris Abrams-Draine returns for no gain to the Misso 25 Kris Abrams-Draine fumbled, forced by Racey McMath, recovered by LSU Damone ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
34.5%
Arik Gilbert 25 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:1667% → 66%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
33.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 7 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
32.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
33.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 6 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
33.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-2
33.2%
Jalen Knox run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-11
34.4%
Connor Bazelak sacked by BJ Ojulari for a loss of 11 yards to the Misso 31 Connor Bazelak fumbled, forced by BJ Ojulari, recovered by LSU Ali Gaye , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5537% → 38%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
36.9%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Arik GilbertSimilar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
37.0%
Myles Brennan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+7
36.5%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Racey McMath for 7 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
38.4%
Cade York 42 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3662% → 69%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
38.1%
Tyler Badie run for 7 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
37.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D'ionte Smith for 5 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
38.2%
Connor Bazelak run for 5 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-1
38.3%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 41Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+26
40.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 26 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
38.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
38.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Jalen KnoxSimilar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+14
40.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 14 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
31.3%
Jalen Knox 16 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0136% → 36%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.1%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Koy MooreSimilar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
35.9%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Tory CarterSimilar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.2%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 8 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
35.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 45 yds , Kris Abrams-Draine returns for 4 yds to the Misso 26 Kris Abrams-Draine fumbled, recovered by Misso Kris Abrams-DraineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:2465% → 68%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
35.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to D'ionte SmithSimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+17
35.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 17 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
34.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 12 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
33.6%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
33.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
33.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D'ionte Smith for 5 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-2
33.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-3
35.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for a loss of 3 yards Tauskie Dove fumbled, forced by Cordale Flott, recovered by Misso Isaiah McGuireSimilar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
32.3%
Harrison Mevis 52 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5536% → 33%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.5%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to John Emery Jr.Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.3%
Myles Brennan pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
33.8%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Jontre KirklinSimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+2
33.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 60 yds , Jarvis Ware returns for 2 yds to the Misso 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:3566% → 66%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
33.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-10
33.7%
Rountree III, Larry rush for 4 yards to the MISSOURI24, PENALTY MISSOURI holding (Cook, Case) 10 yards to the MISSOURI10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 15
OWN 10
-1
34.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5838% → 40%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
38.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 24 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
41.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+1
42.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the Misso 45Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
42.4%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr., broken up by Joshuah BledsoeSimilar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
40.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
36.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 5 Larry Rountree III fumbled, forced by Todd Harris Jr., recovered by LSU Jabril CoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:1544% → 56%
Q3 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
43.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price 1 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3348% → 66%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
52.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 15 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
51.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
50
+9
49.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+41
33.7%
Micah Wilson 41 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
55.5%
Terrace Marshall Jr. 75 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3646% → 43%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 4 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
54.1%
Connor Bazelak run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
56.8%
Connor Bazelak run for 6 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+76
56.8%
Grant McKinniss punt for 66 yds for a touchback LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (Eli Ricks)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:2359% → 64%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
59.4%
Chris Curry run for no gain to the LSU 10Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+15
61.2%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 15 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.5%
Chris Curry run for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
64.3%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 11 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
66.4%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
65.6%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 5 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
66.3%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to John Emery Jr., broken up by Nick BoltonSimilar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
64.4%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 36 yds, downed at the Misso 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:3740% → 64%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
59.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+21
61.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 21 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
59.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D'ionte Smith for 17 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
57.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 11 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
56.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D'ionte Smith for 5 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+6
55.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
35.8%
Tyler Badie 21 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:2746% → 53%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.8%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+44
47.2%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 44 yds to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
53.0%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete, broken up by Nick BoltonSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-10
53.0%
Davis-Price, Tyrion rush for 7 yards to the MISSOURI19, PENALTY LSU holding (Shanahan, Liam) 10 yards to the MISSOURI36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 20
OPP 36
+3
49.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q3 0:04
3RD & 17
OPP 33
0
49.1%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to John Emery Jr.Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 17
OPP 33
+51
53.0%
Cade York 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24MISSED FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:4745% → 37%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
55.2%
Badie, Tyler rush for 7 yards to the MISSOURI32, PENALTY MISSOURI holding (Cook, Case) 10 yards to the MISSOURI15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+13
57.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 13 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
56.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 9 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+29
56.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 29 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
50.9%
Badie, Tyler rush for 10 yards to the LSU24, PENALTY MISSOURI holding (Maietti, Michael) 10 yards to the LSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+9
55.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 9 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
51.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Jalen KnoxSimilar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 11
OPP 35
-4
57.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 15
OPP 39
+56
62.6%
Harrison Mevis 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25MISSED FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:5668% → 65%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
67.6%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 15 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
71.3%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 13 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
73.3%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Kayshon Boutte, broken up by Ishmael BurdineSimilar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
73.1%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 11 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
73.8%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Tory CarterSimilar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-3
71.5%
Myles Brennan sacked by Trajan Jeffcoat for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 25Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 13
OPP 25
-5
68.4%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 18
OPP 30
+3
68.3%
Myles Brennan pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 3 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 15
OPP 38
+60
64.7%
Cade York 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Isaiah McGuire Tyree Gillespie return for 2 yds to the Misso 38 MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Misso 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:3937% → 83%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
62.8%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+69
65.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Chance Luper for 69 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
54.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
16.8%
Niko Hea 5 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27DOWNS
15 plays · 74 yds · 4:5429% → 23%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
29.4%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 18 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
30.4%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+13
31.2%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 13 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
33.4%
Myles Brennan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+13
33.0%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 13 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
35.4%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 6 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+4
34.0%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
35.1%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 4 yds to the Misso 14Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+13
33.7%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 13 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Misso 1Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Misso 1Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
24.5%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr., broken up by Nick BoltonSimilar
Q4 0:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.5%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr., broken up by Joshuah BledsoeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 28Uncategorized
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0694% → 94%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
5.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the Misso 1Similar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
5.8%
Connor Bazelak run for 1 yd to the Misso 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:18
Niko Hea 5 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick)
-33.7
TD · Q3 10:36
Terrace Marshall Jr. 75 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Cade York Kick)
+19.9
TD · Q3 2:36
Tyler Badie 21 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Harrison Mevis Kick)
-19.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com