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MSST

Mississippi State 2 at Kentucky 24

UK
2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.6UK 99.7%Matt Ruffolo 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 2 - HOME 24 · Q4 0:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:49 · Matt Ruffolo 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Home team on offense+33.6Score differential+24.3Pregame prior+0.1Garbage-time factor+14.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+9.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:13: Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 12 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +5.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:54: PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY MS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY. — UK win probability +5.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:48: Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +9.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Chance Poore kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — UK win probability +5.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:10: Terry Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 16 — UK win probability +6.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MSST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UK 4th & 9 at MSST 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:32MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:30UK 4th & 12 at MSST 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:33MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:31UK 4th & 4 at UK 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:47MSST 4th & 18 at UK 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    38% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:13MSST 4th & 7 at UK 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:11UK 4th & 5 at UK 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:48MSST 4th & 1 at UK 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−1.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.2%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:37UK 4th & 12 at UK 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:11MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:40MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 32, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:54UK 4th & 9 at UK 3, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−3.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:49MSST 4th & 5 at UK 36, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    15.1%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:10UK 4th & 20 at UK 10, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−3.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:50MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 38, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:50UK 4th & 4 at MSST 40, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−1.8
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%−1.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:25MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 46, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:49UK 4th & 5 at MSST 17, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 12:13UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:48UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:25UK Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.9%
Terry Wilson run for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
58.9%
Asim Rose run for 3 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
58.9%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
58.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 17 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
58.9%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
58.9%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+3
58.9%
Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 42
-5
58.9%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK delay of game 5 yards to the MS47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
58.9%
Max Duffy punt for 42 yds, downed at the MisSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
59.0%
[SHOT], PENALTY MS false start (K. Johnson) 2 yards to the MS3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+1
59.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 1 yd to the MisSt 4Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 11
OWN 4
0
59.1%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 11
OWN 4
0
59.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete, broken up by Jamin DavisSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 11
OWN 4
0
59.3%
Tucker Day punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
59.6%
Terry Wilson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
59.6%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Allen Dailey Jr.Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
59.5%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
59.7%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete, broken up by Marcus MurphySimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-2
59.7%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 12
OPP 37
0
59.2%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Allen Dailey Jr.Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
58.9%
Max Duffy punt for 26 yds, downed at the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
58.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 6 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+4
58.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 4 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
58.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 7 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+1
58.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 1 yd to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 2
OWN 29
-5
58.8%
[SHOT], PENALTY MS false start (Charles Cross) 5 yards to the MS24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
59.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Tyrell Shavers, broken up by Cedrick Dort Jr.Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
59.2%
Tucker Day punt for 65 yds, downed at the Kent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
58.8%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK false start (Landon Young) 5 yards to the UK6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 15
OWN 6
0
58.8%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh Ali, broken up by Emmanuel ForbesSimilar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+3
58.7%
Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the Kent 9Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 12
OWN 9
+8
58.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 8 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+12
58.1%
Max Duffy punt for 57 yds , Austin Williams returns for 12 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 24 yds · 4:2242% → 41%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
58.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 8 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
57.7%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
57.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 10 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
57.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+2
57.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+12
58.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 12 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
57.3%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 35Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+2
57.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 13
OPP 33
-5
58.2%
[SHOT], PENALTY MS false start (Cameron Gardner) 5 yards to the UK38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 38
0
57.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 18
OPP 38
+56
58.9%
Brandon Ruiz 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 2:3461% → 68%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
60.6%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-6
61.0%
Terry Wilson sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 35Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+51
59.3%
Terry Wilson run for 51 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
62.0%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
67.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 12 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
64.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 6 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
64.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
64.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
63.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-15
64.8%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell, broken up by Tyrell Ajian MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 27
OWN 34
+12
65.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 12 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+8
65.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 8 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
65.7%
Reed Bowman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the Kent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
68.4%
Terry Wilson run for 2 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+3
68.4%
Asim Rose run for 3 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
67.8%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 5
OWN 18
+3
66.9%
Max Duffy punt for 52 yds , Austin Williams returns for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10INT
6 plays · 47 yds · 0:0032% → 35%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
67.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 6 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+9
66.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 9 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
66.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 4 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+23
66.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 8 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Brandin Echols) to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
65.0%
K.J. Costello run for 5 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-76
65.0%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Joshua Paschal return for 76 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0670% → 80%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 2
OWN 0
0
70.2%
PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY MS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.5%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12INT
15 plays · 71 yds · 3:0723% → 24%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
77.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jaden Walley for 13 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
77.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 2 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
77.1%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+10
77.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 10 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
76.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cameron GardnerSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
76.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, broken up by Quinton BohannaSimilar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+9
77.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+3
76.5%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
75.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 5 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+23
76.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 23 yds to the Kent 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.6%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.6%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted, touchback. Jamin Davis return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
79.2%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
79.3%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
80.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cameron GardnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
83.2%
Asim Rose run for 6 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+2
83.2%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the MisSt 25 Asim Rose fumbled, forced by Fred Peters, recovered by MisSt Fred PetersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
80.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 7 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
80.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 3 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
80.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
80.4%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Kelvin Joseph return for no gain to the Kent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
83.8%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 13
OWN 28
0
83.6%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+1
82.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 1 yd to the Kent 29Similar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+10
82.1%
Max Duffy punt for 46 yds , Austin Williams returns for 10 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.6%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
82.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 5 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-3
82.3%
K.J. Costello run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal forward pass (K.J. Costello) to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
83.9%
Tucker Day punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18SF
6 plays · -20 yds · 1:5187% → 84%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
86.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Brenden Bates for 14 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
86.6%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 12 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
87.3%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to DeMarcus HarrisSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
87.1%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
86.6%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Keaton UpshawSimilar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 8
OWN 48
-48
83.8%
Team run for a loss of 48 yards for a SAFETY KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal kicking ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
83.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 5 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+5
83.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Kylin Hill for 5 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
83.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 5 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
82.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 1 yd to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
82.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
83.5%
Tucker Day punt for 66 yds, downed at the Kent 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
86.7%
Terry Wilson run for 1 yd to the Kent 3Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
86.6%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Justin RiggSimilar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
86.0%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to DeMarcus HarrisSimilar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+17
85.5%
Max Duffy punt for 55 yds , Austin Williams returns for 17 yds to the Kent 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4917% → 18%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
82.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Kylin Hill for 4 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+1
82.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Kylin Hill for 1 yd to the Kent 36Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
83.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+13
83.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 13 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
82.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 5 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
82.2%
Will Rogers pass intercepted, touchback. Jamar Watson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
88.8%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 16Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+4
88.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 4 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-10
88.1%
Terry Wilson sacked by Nathan Pickering and Marquiss Spencer for a loss of 10 yards to the Kent 10Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 20
OWN 10
+1
87.4%
Max Duffy punt for 43 yds , Austin Williams returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 11 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 11%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Kylin Hill, broken up by J.J. WeaverSimilar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
87.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
88.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+57
88.9%
Tucker Day punt for 62 yds for a touchback MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.0%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
92.1%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 5 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
92.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 12 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
92.7%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 10 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
92.7%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh Ali, broken up by Martin EmersonSimilar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
92.7%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
92.5%
Terry Wilson run for no gain to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
91.7%
Max Duffy punt for 38 yds, downed at the MisSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:227% → 3%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
92.8%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JaVonta Payton, broken up by DeAndre SquareSimilar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
92.8%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Austin Williams, broken up by Jordan WrightSimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 2
-8
97.5%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Wright return for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26DOWNS
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
97.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
97.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 5 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
97.1%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Malik Heath) to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 17
OWN 40
+4
97.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 4 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+6
97.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 7
50
-4
97.1%
K.J. Costello sacked by Jordan Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 11
OWN 46
-7
97.4%
K.J. Costello sacked by Jamar Watson for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 27FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:3099% → 100%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
99.0%
JuTahn McClain run for 17 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
99.0%
Joey Gatewood run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 12
OPP 24
0
99.0%
Joey Gatewood pass incomplete, broken up by Emmanuel ForbesSimilar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+7
98.9%
Joey Gatewood run for 7 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
99.7%
Matt Ruffolo 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.4%
Will Rogers pass intercepted D'Eryk Jackson return for 5 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:48
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+9.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:10
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 16
+6.7
TD · Q2 12:13
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 12 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com