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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreTENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:41 · Paxton Brooks punt for 41 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for no gain to the Geo 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:42: Stetson Bennett run for 8 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +4.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:40: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 36 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +11.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:08: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 27 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +11.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:35: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 21 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +11.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:31: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jalen Carter for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +6.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:15UGA 4th & 15 at UGA 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snapGo for it77.2%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.4%average punt
- Q1 9:07TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 15, up 7Close callPunted · 23.5% before the snapGo for it23.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:23TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt23.2%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:57TENN 4th & 11 at TENN 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snapGo for it23.7%−0.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.1%average punt
- Q2 8:41TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snapGo for it20.0%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.8%average punt
- Q2 6:49UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt78.5%−1.0average punt
- Q2 4:49UGA 4th & 7 at TENN 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snapGo for it72.3%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call72.4%58% to makePunt69.2%−3.2average punt
- Q2 0:00UGA 4th & 1 at TENN 1, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.8%59% to convertField goal63.8%−4.194% to makePunt55.6%−12.3average punt
- Q3 12:00UGA 4th & 11 at TENN 16, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snapGo for it58.9%−2.124% to convertField goalTheir call60.9%81% to makePunt51.9%−9.1average punt
- Q3 10:11UGA 4th & 7 at TENN 33, down 1Close callKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snapGo for it65.4%37% to convertField goalTheir call65.1%−0.249% to makePunt64.0%−1.4average punt
- Q3 8:11TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 40, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snapGo for it28.9%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%average punt
- Q3 6:13UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 12, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snapGo for it66.7%−3.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.7%average punt
- Q3 4:28TENN 4th & 27 at TENN 7, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snapGo for it24.1%−5.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%average punt
- Q4 14:16TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 19, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snapGo for it11.9%−1.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.2%average punt
- Q4 7:39TENN 4th & 1 at UGA 45, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%70% to convertField goal0.7%−0.225% to makePunt0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:00TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 27, down 23Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%−<0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:38UGA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.1%97% to makeGo for two77.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:42UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.1%97% to makeGo for two78.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:40TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.1%97% to makeGo for two26.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:08TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.1%97% to makeGo for two35.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:35UGA Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.1%97% to makeGo for two88.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 10:31UGA Touchdown, up 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%−0.197% to makeGo for two95.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1FUMBLE TD3 plays · -25 yds · 0:3478% → 78%
UGADrive 2PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4978% → 76%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to John FitzPatrick for 3 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+17
76.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 17 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-9
76.4%
Stetson Bennett sacked by Roman Harrison for a loss of 9 yards to the Geo 43Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
75.9%
Jake Camarda punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Eric Gray at the Tenn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5424% → 25%
Q1 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+1
75.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 1 yd to the Tenn 9Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+6
75.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 6 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 3
OWN 15
-5
75.1%
Paxton Brooks punt for 43 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4TD6 plays · 63 yds · 2:2075% → 77%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
74.8%
Kenny McIntosh run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+15
74.8%
Bennett, Stetson pass incomplete to Pickens, George, PENALTY TENNESSEE roughing passer (Johnson, Deandre) 15 yards to the TENNESSEE30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+29
74.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 29 yds to the Tenn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT12 plays · 20 yds · 3:3324% → 25%
Q1 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
75.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 9 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
74.8%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 1 yd to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tyson Campbell) to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+5
74.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 5 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
74.8%
Paxton Brooks punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD15 plays · 95 yds · 6:0674% → 79%
Q1 2:10
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+15
74.1%
Bennett, Stetson pass incomplete to Pickens, George, PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference (Taylor, Alontae) 15 yards to the GEORGIA21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+19
74.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 19 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
75.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kurott Garland) to the Tenn 47Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+14
73.7%
Bennett, Stetson pass incomplete to Jackson, Kearis, PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference (McCollough, Jaylen) 14 yards to the TENNESSEE33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 2:5123% → 22%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 7 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
77.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 15 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+1
77.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 1 yd to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
78.2%
Paxton Brooks punt for 41 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for no gain to the Geo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8Uncategorized5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4578% → 78%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
77.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to George Pickens for 11 yds to the Geo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+7
77.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 7 yds to the Geo 36Similar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
77.9%
Stetson Bennett run for no gain to the Geo 36 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Motion ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9TD1 play · 36 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
66.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 36 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10FG7 plays · 46 yds · 1:3971% → 74%
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
73.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Daijun Edwards for 3 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11TD7 plays · 67 yds · 1:1828% → 41%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
72.4%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 3 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (George Pickens) to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
70.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 5 yds to the Geo 40Similar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
70.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 12 yds to the Geo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
59.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 27 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12DOWNS14 plays · 57 yds · 2:5166% → 61%
TENNDrive 13FUMBLE5 plays · -10 yds · 0:4240% → 39%
Q3 14:13
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-6
61.5%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Azeez Ojulari for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 15 Jarrett Guarantano fumbled, forced by Azeez Ojulari, recovered by Geo Azeez Ojulari , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14FG5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0567% → 65%
Q3 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-15
66.0%
Bennett, Stetson pass complete to Burton, Jermaine for 3 yards to the TENNESSEE12, PENALTY GEORGIA personal foul (Cleveland, Ben) 15 yards to the TENNESSEE30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 25
OPP 30
0
63.6%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Darnell Washington GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Darnell Washington) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15INT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4637% → 38%
UGADrive 16FG4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4368% → 71%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 1:5330% → 30%
Q3 9:27
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+6
70.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 11 yds to the Tenn 36 TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Brandon Kennedy) to the Tenn 31Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+6
70.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 6 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
70.3%
Paxton Brooks punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4770% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -17 yds · 1:3631% → 29%
Q3 5:27
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-6
68.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 21Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 13
OWN 21
-14
70.5%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Adam Anderson for a loss of 14 yards to the Tenn 7 Jarrett Guarantano fumbled, forced by Adam Anderson, recovered by Tenn Cade Mays , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 27
OWN 7
0
71.4%
Paxton Brooks punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20TD11 plays · 62 yds · 3:2571% → 88%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
70.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 15 yds Jermaine Burton fumbled, forced by Quavaris Crouch, recovered by Geo Trey Hill for a 1ST down , return for 3 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+20
71.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 20 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
76.1%
Bennett, Stetson pass complete to Jackson, Kearis for 10 yards to the TENNESSEE14, PENALTY GEORGIA ineligible downfield on pass (Shaffer, Justin) 5 yards to the TENNESSEE29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 15
OPP 22
-3
75.7%
Stetson Bennett run for 7 yds to the Tenn 22 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kearis Jackson) to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+21
88.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 21 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4412% → 11%
UGADrive 22TD8 plays · 66 yds · 3:2288% → 97%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
87.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 14 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
89.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to George Pickens for 3 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+33
90.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 33 yds to the Tenn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jalen Carter for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23FUMBLE TD4 plays · -5 yds · 0:264% → 1%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 5 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+20
99.0%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Monty Rice for a loss of 10 yards Jarrett Guarantano fumbled, forced by Monty Rice, recovered by Geo Monty Rice , return for 0 yards , return for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24DOWNS7 plays · 20 yds · 2:011% → 1%
UGADrive 25FUMBLE8 plays · 46 yds · 4:2399% → 100%
Q4 3:03
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+10
99.6%
Kendall Milton run for 10 yds to the Tenn 9 Kendall Milton fumbled, forced by Aaron Beasley, recovered by Tenn Kenneth George Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26Uncategorized12 plays · 42 yds · 2:450% → 0%
Q4 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+16
99.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 16 yds to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
99.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 6 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 4
OWN 32
-5
99.6%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Channing Tindall for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+13
99.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 13 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jacob Warren for 5 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+18
99.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 18 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-12
99.6%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Channing Tindall for a loss of 12 yards to the Geo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:35
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 21 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q2 6:40
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 36 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
-11.6
TD · Q2 3:08
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 27 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
-11