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ARK

Arkansas 28 at Auburn 30

AUB
2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG-6.1AUB 79.7%A.J. Reed 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 21 - HOME 27 · Q4 11:37
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:37 · A.J. Reed 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Pregame prior+7.2Home team on offense+6.9Garbage-time factor+1.5Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Time remaining+2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:22: Bo Nix run for 15 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:14: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 5 yds for a TD Timeout ARKANSAS, clock 04:14 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ARK win probability +12.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 14:51: Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 17 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +13.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:29: Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 30 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK) — ARK win probability +46.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:07: Anders Carlson 39 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +51.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 10:56AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:32ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:56AUB 4th & 8 at ARK 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:32ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:36AUB 4th & 4 at ARK 30, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:11ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 47, down 10
    Close callPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:15AUB 4th & 5 at ARK 45, up 11
    Close callPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:44AUB 4th & 18 at ARK 46, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:37ARK 4th & 5 at AUB 5, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.1%−0.8
    92% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−10.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:19AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 22, up 6
    Close callPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:45ARK 4th & 5 at AUB 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−2.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−3.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:38AUB 4th & 10 at ARK 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−17.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−27.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:06ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 22, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−6.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:07AUB 4th & 4 at ARK 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−34.1
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−50.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q2 9:22AUB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:24ARK Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    16.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:15ARK Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    22.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:14ARK Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:51AUB Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:29ARK Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−2.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3517% → 17%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.2%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
83.2%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
83.1%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Colby Wooden for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:2483% → 82%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
82.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 8 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+5
82.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 5 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
82.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 42Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
82.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 2 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-1
82.3%
Bo Nix sacked by Isaiah Nichols and Eric Gregory for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 43Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
82.1%
Aidan Marshall punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1518% → 19%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
82.0%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Ark 16 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-8 Yards) to the Ark 8Similar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 12
OWN 8
+19
82.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 19 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
81.8%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
81.8%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
81.5%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
81.5%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
81.3%
George Caratan punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:1981% → 80%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
81.2%
J.J. Pegues run for 11 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
81.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 15 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
81.4%
J.J. Pegues run for 1 yd to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+10
81.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 10 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
81.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
81.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
81.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Tank BigsbySimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
80.4%
Aidan Marshall punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ark 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT TD
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1820% → 17%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
80.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 6 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+1
80.4%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Ark 10Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 3
OWN 10
-3
80.5%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Zykeivous Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 7Similar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 6
OWN 7
-3
80.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-3 Yards) to the Ark 4Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 9
OWN 4
0
83.0%
George Caratan punt blocked by Jordyn Peters for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3118% → 18%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
82.3%
A'Montae Spivey run for 5 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
81.8%
Feleipe Franks run for no gain to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
82.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-5
82.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Ark 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7FG
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:2983% → 83%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+41
82.5%
D.J. Williams run for 41 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
83.0%
D.J. Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
83.0%
J.J. Pegues pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+2
82.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+47
82.7%
Anders Carlson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:1617% → 18%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.7%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
82.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 11 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
82.2%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
82.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-5
82.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+13
83.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 13 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
82.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:4383% → 90%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
82.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 17 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
82.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
50
-2
83.3%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+11
83.0%
D.J. Williams run for 11 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
83.0%
D.J. Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
83.4%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+9
83.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
83.7%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
83.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 11 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
90.3%
Bo Nix run for 15 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:5812% → 18%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
88.4%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
88.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 9 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+15
87.9%
Trelon Smith run for 15 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
87.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 8 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+5
86.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 5 yds to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
86.4%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 10Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
86.4%
Feleipe Franks run for 6 yds to the Aub 4Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 4 yds for a TD (TEAM PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0484% → 84%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
84.1%
Bo Nix run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
50
0
85.0%
D.J. Williams run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
50
+5
84.9%
D.J. Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
84.6%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
84.0%
Bo Nix punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4516% → 24%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
84.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 44 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
82.4%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Aub 30Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+1
82.5%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+16
83.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 16 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
82.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyson Morris for 6 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
76.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 7 yds for a TD Timeout ARKANSAS, clock 02:15 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:1180% → 81%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
80.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 26 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+30
81.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 30 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
81.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
81.8%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.0%
Anthony Schwartz run for no gain to the Ark 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:2716% → 16%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.2%
A'Montae Spivey run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
83.7%
A'Montae Spivey run for 3 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
83.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 30 yds · 5:0184% → 83%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
84.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
84.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+8
83.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 8 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
84.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
84.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+12
84.6%
Bo Nix run for 12 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
85.4%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+9
85.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 9 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
85.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 7 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-7
85.7%
Bo Nix sacked by Jonathan Marshall for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-8
84.7%
Bo Nix sacked by Hayden Henry for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
83.0%
Aidan Marshall punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 5:2017% → 33%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
83.1%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Ark 16Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+14
83.3%
Trelon Smith run for 14 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
82.6%
Trelon Smith run for 13 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
81.6%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+10
81.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 10 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
80.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
80.5%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+25
81.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 25 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
79.7%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+7
79.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 7 yds to the Aub 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
79.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (4 Yards) to the Aub 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 4
OPP 10
-6
80.0%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Owen Pappoe for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 10 ARKANSAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Aub 10Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
80.0%
Feleipe Franks run for 5 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 5 yds for a TD Timeout ARKANSAS, clock 04:14 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:0474% → 89%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
73.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 11 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
75.3%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+25
73.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 25 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
77.0%
D.J. Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
77.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tank Bigsby for no gain to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+9
75.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 9 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
77.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 4 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-10
77.2%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 16
OPP 23
+6
75.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 6 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
88.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 17 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:0313% → 20%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.6%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+35
86.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Blake Kern for 35 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
84.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 17 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.2%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
83.7%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+14
85.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 14 yds to the Aub 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
83.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to John David WhiteSimilar
Q4 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
84.7%
Malik Hornsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 6Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
85.8%
Malik Hornsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 5Similar
Q4 11:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
79.7%
A.J. Reed 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0586% → 86%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
86.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 7 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 3
OWN 21
0
87.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+1
86.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to D.J. Williams for 1 yd to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
85.7%
Aidan Marshall punt for 48 yds, downed at the Ark 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:3617% → 62%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
82.9%
Feleipe Franks run for no gain to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
83.2%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+9
83.3%
Feleipe Franks run for 9 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
81.7%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+9
80.6%
Trelon Smith run for 9 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
79.7%
Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
79.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-2
79.5%
A'Montae Spivey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 42Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+1
80.3%
Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+11
84.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 11 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
38.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 30 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21MISSED FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:4056% → 54%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
55.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+32
59.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 32 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
63.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 12 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
63.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
63.4%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Ark 17Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
58.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
54.3%
Anders Carlson 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:2660% → 59%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
40.1%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+3
40.9%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+4
41.3%
Feleipe Franks run for 4 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+9
40.8%
George Caratan punt for 37 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 9 yds to the Ark 31 ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:4847% → 94%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
46.7%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
46.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 8 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+9
42.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
46.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+1
45.6%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-3
41.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete AUBURN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-3 Yards) to the Ark 22Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
93.5%
Anders Carlson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:07
Anders Carlson 39 yd FG GOOD
+51.9
TD · Q4 5:29
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 30 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)
-46.1
TD · Q4 14:51
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 17 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com