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ALA

Alabama 63 at Ole Miss 48

MISS
2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameTD-6.5MISS 5.2%DeVonta Smith 14 Yd Run (Will ReichardKick)AWAY 56 - HOME 45 · Q4 3:16
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:16 · DeVonta Smith 14 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Pregame prior−3.5Home team on offense−35.0Garbage-time factor−11.9Score differential−13.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:47: Kenny Yeboah 68 Yd pass from Matt Corral (Luke Logan Kick) — MISS win probability +11.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:19: Jerrion Ealy 9 Yd Run (Luke Logan Kick) — MISS win probability +15.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:39: Najee Harris 3 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +12.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:31: Snoop Conner 1 Yd Run (Luke Logan Kick) — MISS win probability +22.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:00: Najee Harris 16 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +20.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ALA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 6:18MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:40MISS 4th & 5 at ALA 21, tied
    Close callWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:10ALA 4th & 10 at MISS 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:22MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:45MISS 4th & 1 at ALA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.0%−1.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q4 12:55MISS 4th & 1 at ALA 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%−2.9
    87% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−13.4
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:31MISS 4th & 1 at ALA 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−5.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−16.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:01MISS 4th & 14 at ALA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−3.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−9.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 1:29MISS 4th & 8 at ALA 11, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%−1.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 14:06MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:29ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:31MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:51ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:15MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:00ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:45ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:47MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 10:19ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 6:19MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 2:39ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 11:31MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 10:00ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 3:16ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 1:09ALA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:447% → 7%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
6.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 17 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+52
6.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 52 yds to the Alab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
6.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q1 14:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
6.9%
Kenny Yeboah 6 Yd pass from Matt Corral (Luke Logan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 4:3093% → 92%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
6.9%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
7.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 4 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
7.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 18 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
7.4%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+22
7.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 22 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
7.9%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+3
8.2%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+4
8.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 4 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
8.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 10 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
8.2%
DeVonta Smith 14 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:029% → 10%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
8.6%
Elijah Moore run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
8.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jerrion EalySimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
8.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 17 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
8.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 11 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
9.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 9 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-18
9.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 19
OWN 47
+2
9.3%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
9.6%
Mac Brown punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4FUMBLE
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:5990% → 89%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
9.7%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
9.9%
Jaylen Waddle run for 11 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
10.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 9 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
10.0%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+5
10.2%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
10.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 14 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
10.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+7
10.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 7 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
10.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 13 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+6
10.7%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Miss 7 Najee Harris fumbled, forced by Jakorey Hawkins, recovered by Miss Jakorey Hawkins , return for 6 yds to the Miss 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 3:2912% → 18%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+34
11.9%
Snoop Conner run for 34 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
12.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
13.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 1 yd to the Alab 47Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+10
13.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 10 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
13.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 11 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
14.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
14.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 12
OPP 28
-15
13.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Kenny Yeboah) to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 27
OPP 43
+22
13.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 22 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+18
14.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 18 yds to the Alab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
18.0%
Jerrion Ealy 3 Yd Run (Luke Logan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1283% → 81%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
16.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 20 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
16.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 15 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
16.8%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
16.4%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-6
17.4%
Mac Jones sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
19.1%
Sam Johnson punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:3820% → 21%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
19.6%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
19.7%
Snoop Conner run for 8 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
19.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 7 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
20.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
21.0%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
21.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
21.0%
Mac Brown punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:1479% → 85%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
21.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 18 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
20.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+36
21.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 36 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
20.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 14 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
20.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2519% → 32%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
19.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
19.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
20.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+14
20.7%
Matt Corral run for 14 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
22.3%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+1
22.6%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
22.4%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+26
21.8%
Snoop Conner run for 26 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
23.7%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the Alab 2Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
32.1%
Snoop Conner 2 Yd Run (Luke Logan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0071% → 82%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
29.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 15 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
28.8%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
29.3%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+15
28.1%
Mac Jones run for 5 yds to the OLEMISS 47 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Holding (MoMo Sanogo) to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
27.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+32
28.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 32 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.6%
Najee Harris 5 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:3524% → 24%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
24.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:0578% → 87%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
21.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+35
21.1%
Najee Harris run for 35 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
19.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 8 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+33
12.6%
Najee Harris 33 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:4315% → 26%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
15.2%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
15.4%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
26.4%
Kenny Yeboah 68 Yd pass from Matt Corral (Luke Logan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:2179% → 87%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
21.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+14
21.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 14 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
21.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
21.5%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+15
22.9%
Jones, Mac pass incomplete to Smith, DeVonta, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Smith, Keidron) 15 yards to the OLEMISS15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
21.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 20Similar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+17
21.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 17 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
13.4%
Miller Forristall 3 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4116% → 38%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.4%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
16.3%
Corral, Matt pass incomplete to Moore, Elijah, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Moore, Elijah) 12 yards to the OLEMISS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+27
16.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 27 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
18.2%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
18.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+25
19.6%
Matt Corral run for 15 yds to the OLEMISS 40 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Malachi Moore) to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
21.2%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
21.5%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+14
20.3%
Snoop Conner run for 14 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
21.8%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
37.6%
Jerrion Ealy 9 Yd Run (Luke Logan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:2171% → 86%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
29.4%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
29.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 4 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+15
29.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 15 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
27.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 24 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
26.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 17 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
27.0%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Miss 3Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
14.3%
Najee Harris 3 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 6:0419% → 46%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
19.1%
Matt Corral run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 24Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
19.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
18.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 15 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-14
20.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 1 yd to the Miss 38 OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Elijah Moore) to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 24
OWN 23
+2
19.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 22
OWN 25
+16
18.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 16 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+15
19.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 15 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
22.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 11 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
23.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Dylan Moses) to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
23.9%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 21Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+4
24.1%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+6
22.6%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
21.2%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
24.5%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Alab 7Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
24.8%
Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 11:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.7%
Snoop Conner 1 Yd Run (Luke Logan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:1566% → 87%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
34.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 16 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
32.6%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+9
33.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
12.8%
Najee Harris 16 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:4919% → 27%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
19.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
50
+10
23.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 10 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
24.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 23 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
25.9%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-2
26.1%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 16Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-5
23.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 21Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 14
OPP 21
+39
27.4%
Luke Logan 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 3:2479% → 95%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
20.8%
Najee Harris run for 15 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
20.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 17 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
17.2%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
17.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
16.6%
Mac Jones run for 2 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+45
15.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 45 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
14.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 4Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
13.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Cameron Latu) to the Miss 9Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
11.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Deonte Brown) to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
5.2%
DeVonta Smith 14 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 1:365% → 9%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
5.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
5.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+59
7.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 46 yds to the OLEMISS 26 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Battle) to the Alab 13 for a 1ST down (J. Battle disqualified for Targeting.)Similar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
8.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
7.0%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
5.9%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
9.3%
Luke Logan 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:1397% → 99%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
3.1%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
3.1%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+39
1.5%
Najee Harris 39 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23Uncategorized
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
0.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for no gain to the Miss 19Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-3
0.8%
Matt Corral sacked by Christian Barmore for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 16Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+15
0.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 15 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:31
Snoop Conner 1 Yd Run (Luke Logan Kick)
+22.3
TD · Q4 10:00
Najee Harris 16 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)
-20.3
TD · Q3 6:19
Jerrion Ealy 9 Yd Run (Luke Logan Kick)
+15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com