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MIZ

Missouri 12 at Tennessee 35

TENN
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:27 · Connor Bazelak pass complete to Logan Christopherson for 37 yds to the Tenn 7 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+11.6Home team on offense+23.8Score differential+16.5Garbage-time factor+5.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:44: Eric Gray run for 20 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +3.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:44: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 13 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +6.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:27: Jarrett Guarantano run for 2 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +7.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:06: Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MIZ win probability +5.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:44: Jarrett Guarantano run for 1 yd for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 15:00TENN 4th & 1 at MIZ 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:28MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:15TENN 4th & 7 at MIZ 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:15MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:17TENN 4th & 1 at MIZ 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    75.7%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:17MIZ 4th & 6 at TENN 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:17TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 46, up 11
    Close callPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:17MIZ 4th & 11 at TENN 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:08MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 35, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:53MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 47, down 15
    Close callPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:27MIZ 4th & 1 at TENN 44, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−2.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:06MIZ 4th & 1 at TENN 1, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    -3.4%−5.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00TENN 4th & 26 at TENN 18, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:44TENN 4th & 1 at MIZ 1, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−3.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:35MIZ 4th & 14 at TENN 33, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MIZ made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 10:01TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:44TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:44TENN Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:27TENN Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:06MIZ Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:44TENN Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:5980% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Brandon Kennedy) to the Tenn 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
80.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
80.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 5 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 9 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
80.3%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 3 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
80.3%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
80.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 5 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
80.3%
Eric Gray run for 4 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-1
80.3%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Trajan Jeffcoat for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+36
80.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 36 yds to the Misso 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
80.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
80.3%
Eric Gray run for 6 yds to the Misso 7Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+3
80.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 3 yds to the Misso 4Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+1
80.3%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 1 yd to the Misso 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
80.6%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:3320% → 20%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.1%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 8 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
80.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
79.9%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Knox for no gain to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
79.9%
Shawn Robinson run for 1 yd to the Misso 43Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-1
79.8%
Shawn Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
80.2%
Grant McKinniss punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Eric Gray at the Tenn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:3080% → 80%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
79.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Princeton Fant, broken up by Jr. Ennis RakestrawSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+10
79.9%
Eric Gray run for 10 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+33
80.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 33 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
80.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Ramel Keyton, broken up by Adam SparksSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
80.5%
Eric Gray run for 11 yds to the Misso 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.6%
Eric Gray run for no gain to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
80.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+3
80.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 3 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
80.0%
Brent Cimaglia 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
79.8%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-4
79.9%
Shawn Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 18Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 14
OWN 18
0
80.2%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Niko HeaSimilar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
80.3%
Grant McKinniss punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Eric Gray at the Tenn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:3380% → 84%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
79.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 9 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
80.6%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+9
80.2%
Eric Gray run for 9 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
80.6%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
80.6%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
80.4%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+3
80.0%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 3 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
80.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
80.5%
Guarantano,J. pass incomplete to Gray,E., PENALTY MU personal foul 15 yards to the MU20, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
84.1%
Eric Gray run for 20 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:2717% → 19%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
82.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 30 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive holding (Damon Hazelton) to the Misso 20Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
82.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jr. Daniel Parker for 5 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
82.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 14 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
82.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 28 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
81.4%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+21
81.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 21 yds to the Tenn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
81.2%
Tyler Badie run for 3 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
81.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Tenn 10Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
81.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Jalen KnoxSimilar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
80.6%
Harrison Mevis 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
82.1%
Jabari Small run for 15 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
83.0%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
83.0%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
82.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Ramel Keyton, broken up by Ishmael BurdineSimilar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
82.1%
Paxton Brooks punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:2719% → 19%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
81.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Dominic GicintoSimilar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+13
81.7%
Jalen Knox run for 13 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
80.1%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
79.9%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
79.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
79.4%
Connor Bazelak run for 4 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-2
79.1%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-3
80.2%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Deandre Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 11
OPP 33
+50
80.8%
Harrison Mevis 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3380% → 89%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.4%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
80.3%
Ty Chandler run for 13 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
81.4%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+18
81.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 18 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
82.1%
Ty Chandler run for 21 yds to the Misso 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
82.2%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
82.2%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Misso 13Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
88.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 13 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:3614% → 14%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
86.1%
Connor Bazelak run for 1 yd to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
86.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 4 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
86.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-5
86.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 35Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
86.4%
Grant McKinniss punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Eric Gray at the Tenn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
89.7%
PENALTY UT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY MU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+35
88.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 35 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
86.9%
Damon Hazelton run for 3 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
86.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
86.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Jalen KnoxSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
87.2%
Grant McKinniss punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Eric Gray at the Tenn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13TD
16 plays · 92 yds · 6:2989% → 97%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
88.8%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the Tenn 8Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+12
88.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 12 yds to the Tenn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.0%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the Tenn 20Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
89.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh Palmer, broken up by Joshuah BledsoeSimilar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+17
88.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 17 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
89.1%
Ty Chandler run for 8 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
89.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
50
+4
89.6%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+6
89.5%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 6 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
89.5%
Eric Gray run for no gain to the Misso 40Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
89.5%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 9 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
89.1%
Eric Gray run for 3 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
89.6%
Eric Gray run for 4 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+22
89.6%
Eric Gray run for 22 yds to the Misso 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.1%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 2 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:213% → 9%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
96.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 19 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
96.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+2
96.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
96.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Tenn 44Similar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+37
96.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Logan Christopherson for 37 yds to the Tenn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
96.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Tenn 5Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
96.2%
Connor Bazelak run for 3 yds to the Tenn 2Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Tenn 1Similar
Q3 2:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -16 yds · 2:0694% → 94%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
94.1%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
94.4%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-5
94.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Cade Mays) to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-10
94.1%
Guarantano,J. rush for no gain to the UT38 (Adam Sparks), PENALTY UT holding (Wright,D.) 10 yards to the UT28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 16
OWN 28
-10
93.7%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Isaiah McGuire for a loss of 10 yards to the Tenn 18Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 26
OWN 18
+6
93.7%
Paxton Brooks punt for 52 yds , Kris Abrams-Draine returns for 6 yds to the Misso 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16INT
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:428% → 9%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
92.5%
Connor Bazelak run for no gain to the Misso 36Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+17
92.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 17 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
92.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 9 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
91.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Keke ChismSimilar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+11
91.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 11 yds to the Tenn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-36
90.6%
Connor Bazelak pass intercepted Theo Jackson return for 36 yds to the Misso 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 4:3096% → 99%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
96.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 22 yds to the Misso 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
96.3%
Eric Gray run for 3 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+11
96.3%
Eric Gray run for 11 yds to the Misso 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
96.3%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the Misso 10Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+8
96.3%
Guarantano,J. pass incomplete to Palmer,J., PENALTY MU pass interference (Ennis Rakestraw) 8 yards to the MU2, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.4%
Eric Gray run for no gain to the Misso 2Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.3%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the Misso 1Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.2%
Jarrett Guarantano run for no gain to the Misso 1Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 1 yd for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18DOWNS
15 plays · 42 yds · 5:091% → 1%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
99.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 21 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
99.0%
Connor Bazelak run for 3 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+7
99.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 7 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
98.9%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+3
98.8%
N/A run for 3 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+4
98.8%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Tenn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.7%
Connor Bazelak run for no gain to the Tenn 29Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Keke ChismSimilar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+1
99.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 1 yd to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 9
OPP 28
-5
99.3%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Bobby Lawrence) to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 14
OPP 33
0
99.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton, broken up by Kenneth George Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.8%
Ty Chandler run for 7 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
99.8%
Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 12
OWN 44
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:27
Jarrett Guarantano run for 2 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q2 0:44
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 13 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q3 2:06
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com