Try the model
MISS

Ole Miss 42 at Kentucky 41

UK
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Kroger Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:14 · Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 123Pregame prior+6.1Home team on offense+5.2Score differential+1.8Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 13:37: Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 16 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +25.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 8:23: Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +28.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:04: Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +29.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Terry Wilson run for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo PAT MISSED) — UK win probability +21.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +64.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:05MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:29MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:19UK 4th & 1 at UK 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:22MISS 4th & 12 at MISS 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:44UK 4th & 11 at UK 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:46MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 49, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:14UK 4th & 9 at MISS 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:14MISS 4th & 1 at UK 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−3.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−13.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:17UK 4th & 2 at UK 10, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:37UK 4th & 8 at MISS 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:42MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:38MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:36UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:33UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:19MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:29UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:41UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:17MISS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:37MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:23MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:04UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2233% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+31
67.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 31 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
67.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Kent 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+2
67.3%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+8
67.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Tylan Knight for 8 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
67.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 5 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+15
67.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 15 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:0066% → 67%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+72
66.3%
Asim Rose run for 72 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
66.6%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.6%
Asim Rose run for no gain to the Miss 2 Asim Rose fumbled, forced by Ashanti Cistrunk, recovered by Miss Ryder AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
65.6%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Miss 3Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+2
65.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 7
OWN 5
-2
65.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (-2 Yards) to the Miss 3Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
65.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jerrion EalySimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+17
65.8%
Mac Brown punt for 43 yds , Josh Ali returns for 17 yds to the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:5466% → 67%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
65.6%
Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+19
65.6%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 19 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
65.6%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.3%
Terry Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
65.6%
[SHOT], PENALTY OM false start (Kenny Yeboah) 5 yards to the OM41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+9
66.0%
Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 6
50
0
65.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 6
50
-3
65.6%
Matt Corral sacked by Marquan McCall and J.J. Weaver for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
66.4%
Mac Brown punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:2566% → 71%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
66.1%
Terry Wilson run for 2 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
66.1%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 8 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
66.2%
Asim Rose run for 18 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
66.9%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 21 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+24
67.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 24 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
67.3%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
67.3%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 2Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.7%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1430% → 38%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
69.3%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
69.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 14 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
69.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 12 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
68.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
68.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
68.5%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
67.9%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
67.8%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Kent 14Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
62.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 14 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 5 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
65.7%
Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
65.6%
Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the Kent 34Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
64.7%
Max Duffy punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
64.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 13 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
63.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
63.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+8
63.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 8 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
62.5%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
62.9%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-2
63.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 41Similar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
64.6%
Mac Brown punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
64.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Akeem Hayes for 2 yds to the Kent 22 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 12Similar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 18
OWN 12
0
64.7%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to DeMarcus HarrisSimilar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+4
64.7%
Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+3
63.8%
Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
63.3%
Max Duffy punt for 55 yds, downed at the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
61.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
60.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-5
60.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+10
62.1%
[SHOT], Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 6 yards to the OM36 (Tyrell Ajian), PENALTY UK holding (Cedrick Dort) 10 yards to the OM40, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.2%
Elijah Moore run for no gain to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
60.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 7 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
59.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 2 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
60.8%
Mac Brown punt for 34 yds, downed at the Kent 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:2564% → 75%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
64.0%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 5 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-10
64.3%
[SHOT], Terry Wilson rush for 20 yards to the UK42, PENALTY UK holding (Luke Fortner) 10 yards to the UK12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+11
63.8%
[SHOT], Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Justin Rigg, PENALTY OM pass interference (Jacquez Jones) 11 yards to the UK23, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
64.1%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 8 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+6
65.5%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
64.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 18 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
66.7%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+5
66.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 5 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+22
74.6%
Terry Wilson run for 22 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
72.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Miss 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1974% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.1%
Asim Rose run for 5 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
74.4%
Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
74.2%
Asim Rose run for 6 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
75.6%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to DeMarcus HarrisSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
74.9%
Terry Wilson run for 18 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
76.1%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+5
76.1%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
76.2%
Asim Rose run for 8 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+1
76.2%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+22
85.9%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 22 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2415% → 31%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
84.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 28 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
82.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 15 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
82.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 8 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+24
69.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 24 yds for a TD KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:5577% → 78%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+31
76.6%
Terry Wilson run for 31 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
78.7%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+15
79.1%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 15 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
79.4%
Terry Wilson run for 6 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-5
79.4%
Terry Wilson sacked by Jamar Richardson for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
78.2%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to DeMarcus Harris, broken up by Jamar RichardsonSimilar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
78.4%
Matt Ruffolo 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17DOWNS
13 plays · 67 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
74.1%
Snoop Conner run for 23 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
71.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
71.6%
[SHOT], Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dannis Jackson, PENALTY UK pass interference (D. Robinson) 6 yards to the UK40, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
71.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+18
71.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 18 yds to the Kent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
69.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 5 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-10
69.3%
[SHOT], Matt Corral rush for 5 yards to the UK12, PENALTY OM holding (Nick Broeker) 10 yards to the UK27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+11
71.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 11 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+14
71.1%
Matt Corral run for 14 yds to the Kent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
69.3%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Kent 2Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
69.3%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Kent 2Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
71.1%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Kent 1Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
72.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
79.9%
Asim Rose run for no gain to the Kent 2Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+2
79.7%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 4Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+6
78.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 6 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
78.0%
Max Duffy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:3025% → 51%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
75.2%
Matt Corral run for 14 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
74.2%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
74.2%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+19
74.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 19 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
48.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 16 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
59.9%
Terry Wilson run for 8 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
62.6%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
60.5%
Terry Wilson run for 11 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
63.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 17 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
65.0%
Terry Wilson run for no gain to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
64.8%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-1
64.4%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 8
OPP 35
-12
60.6%
Terry Wilson sacked by MoMo Sanogo for a loss of 12 yards to the Miss 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 0:4751% → 82%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+41
49.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 41 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
46.7%
[SHOT], Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan Mingo, PENALTY UK pass interference (Cedrick Dort) 10 yards to the UK2, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
46.8%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Kent 1Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.5%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1928% → 65%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.2%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to DeMarcus HarrisSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
28.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for no gain to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
26.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 14 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
29.9%
Terry Wilson run for 2 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
31.3%
Terry Wilson run for 6 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
32.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Clevan Thomas Jr. for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
50
+7
33.0%
Terry Wilson run for 7 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+8
34.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 8 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
35.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 13 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-8
36.0%
[SHOT], Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Keaton Upshaw, PENALTY UK intentional grounding (Terry Wilson) 8 yards to the OM30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 18
OPP 30
+28
33.1%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Akeem Hayes for 28 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
36.0%
Terry Wilson run for 1 yd to the Miss 1Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.1%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:2250% → 50%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
50.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-5
50.7%
Matt Corral sacked by Jamar Watson for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+16
53.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 16 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
50.3%
Mac Brown punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the Kent 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
55.5%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 25TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
64.7%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Miss 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+9
64.7%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
85.9%
Terry Wilson run for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0024% → 90%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
75.8%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Kent 20 Timeout KENTUCKY, clock 00:00Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+5
74.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
75.8%
[SHOT], Matt Corral pass incomplete to D. Drummond, PENALTY UK pass interference (Kelvin Joseph) 13 yards to the UK2, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
74.5%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)
-64.5
TD · Q4 2:04
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+29.1
TD · Q4 8:23
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)
-28.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com