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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreAUB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:53 · Aidan Marshall punt for 50 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for 3 yds to the Geo 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:08: George Pickens 21 Yd pass from Stetson Bennett (Jack Podlesny Kick) — UGA win probability +8.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:26: Zamir White 1 Yd Run (Jack Podlesny Kick) — UGA win probability +7.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:08: Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Aub 38 — AUB win probability +3.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:09: Anders Carlson 45 Yd Field Goal — AUB win probability +3.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:51: Jack Podlesny 25 Yd Field Goal — UGA win probability +2.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 14:01UGA 4th & 16 at UGA 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snapGo for it70.1%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.2%average punt
- Q1 7:56AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snapGo for it28.1%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.3%average punt
- Q1 4:00UGA 4th & 4 at AUB 4, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 72.3% before the snapGo for it72.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call72.1%−0.293% to makePunt69.9%−2.4average punt
- Q1 1:34AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 47, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it26.8%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.0%average punt
- Q2 9:53AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snapGo for it16.7%−0.738% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.3%average punt
- Q2 1:38AUB 4th & 3 at UGA 3, down 24Close callKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snapGo for it8.9%44% to convertField goalTheir call8.1%−0.893% to makePunt3.7%−5.3average punt
- Q2 0:18UGA 4th & 14 at UGA 45, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.1%−0.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.6%average punt
- Q3 10:09AUB 4th & 15 at UGA 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.917% to convertField goalTheir call5.3%60% to makePunt2.8%−2.5average punt
- Q3 5:51UGA 4th & 4 at AUB 8, up 18Close callKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snapGo for it93.7%42% to convertField goalTheir call93.4%−0.390% to makePunt88.9%−4.7average punt
- Q3 3:07AUB 4th & 1 at UGA 40, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%70% to convertField goal1.8%−1.434% to makePunt1.9%−1.3average punt
- Q3 0:00AUB 4th & 13 at UGA 30, down 21Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%−0.520% to convertField goal2.0%56% to makePunt1.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 8:06UGA 4th & 7 at AUB 26, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%64% to makePunt97.9%−0.8average punt
- Q4 4:48AUB 4th & 20 at AUB 42, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:31UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.0%97% to makeGo for two71.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:08UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.8%97% to makeGo for two79.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:26UGA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.5%97% to makeGo for two90.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1PUNT7 plays · -6 yds · 0:4968% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2532% → 32%
UGADrive 3TD11 plays · 43 yds · 2:5068% → 70%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
68.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to George Pickens for 5 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
68.1%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Kearis Jackson, broken up by Jordyn PetersSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+17
67.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 17 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 3
OPP 8
-4
68.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 12Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+10
68.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Zamir White for 10 yds to the Aub 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2931% → 30%
Q1 7:56
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
70.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5FG11 plays · 59 yds · 3:4670% → 72%
Q1 5:10
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
71.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 4 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+16
71.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 16 yds to the Aub 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
71.7%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to George Pickens, broken up by Roger McCrearySimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
71.4%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Kearis Jackson, broken up by Jamien SherwoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 2:1928% → 28%
UGADrive 7TD11 plays · 84 yds · 5:1972% → 84%
Q1 0:13
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+17
71.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 17 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
72.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 14 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
73.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 7 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+21
83.6%
George Pickens 21 Yd pass from Stetson Bennett (Jack Podlesny Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0319% → 18%
Q2 9:53
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+3
82.1%
Aidan Marshall punt for 50 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for 3 yds to the Geo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD8 plays · 72 yds · 3:2184% → 92%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+49
84.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 49 yds to the Aub 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10FG15 plays · 65 yds · 4:3011% → 10%
Q2 5:42
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+9
88.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 9 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+15
88.5%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Williams, Seth, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Campbell, Tyson) 15 yards to the GEORGIA31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+19
88.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 19 yds to the Geo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 13
OPP 15
+8
90.1%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Jackson, Shedrick, PENALTY GEORGIA personal foul (LeCounte, Richard) 8 yards to the GEORGIA7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN. Richard LeCounte ejected for targeting.Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
90.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for no gain to the Geo 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 1:1394% → 94%
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-8
94.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 2 yds to the GEORGIA 49 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (George Pickens) to the Geo 41Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
94.0%
Jake Camarda punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13FG16 plays · 54 yds · 4:388% → 9%
Q3 13:51
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+10
92.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 10 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+20
92.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 20 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
92.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 5 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
92.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 9 yds Anthony Schwartz fumbled, forced by Travon Walker, recovered by Aub Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-5
93.6%
Bo Nix sacked by Adam Anderson for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14FG11 plays · 67 yds · 4:0992% → 96%
AUBDrive 15INT18 plays · 49 yds · 5:394% → 2%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
96.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 18 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
95.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth Williams, broken up by Tyson CampbellSimilar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-10
96.5%
Nix, Bo rush for 5 yards to the GEORGIA22, PENALTY AUBURN holding (Council, Brandon) 10 yards to the GEORGIA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 20
OPP 37
-8
97.0%
Bo Nix sacked by Azeez Ojulari for a loss of 8 yards to the Geo 45Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 30
-13
97.9%
Bo Nix pass intercepted Mark Webb return for 13 yds to the Geo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16MISSED FG13 plays · 50 yds · 6:4699% → 99%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-15
98.6%
Stetson Bennett sacked by Zakoby McClain for a loss of 15 yards to the Geo 19 GEORGIA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Stetson Bennett) to the Geo 19Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 21
OWN 23
+22
98.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 22 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 5
50
+6
99.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 6 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
99.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 15 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
99.2%
Milton, Kendall rush for 8 yards to the AUBURN21, PENALTY GEORGIA holding (Condon, Owen) 10 yards to the AUBURN39, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT11 plays · 8 yds · 3:031% → 1%
Q4 7:18
3RD & 14
OWN 22
+18
99.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 18 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
99.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 12 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-14
99.3%
Bo Nix sacked by Adam Anderson for a loss of 6 yards to the GEORGIA 46 AUBURN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Bo Nix) to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 16
OWN 46
-4
99.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to D.J. Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18Uncategorized7 plays · 27 yds · 4:19100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:08
George Pickens 21 Yd pass from Stetson Bennett (Jack Podlesny Kick)
+8.6
TD · Q2 6:26
Zamir White 1 Yd Run (Jack Podlesny Kick)
+7
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:08
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Aub 38
-3