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ARK

Arkansas 21 at Mississippi State 14

MSST
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+18.4MSST 50.1%Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD(Brandon Ruiz KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 14 · Q3 3:50
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:50 · Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+13.3Home team on offense−7.9Garbage-time factor−4.1Score differential−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:21: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Hudson Henry for 12 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK) — ARK win probability +18.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:40: Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 04:40 — ARK win probability +15.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:50: Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +18.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:20: Feleipe Franks pass complete to TJ Hammonds for loss of 5 yards to the AR42 (Marcus Murphy), PENALTY AR illegal block (Tyson Morris) 10 yards to the AR37, NO PLAY. — ARK win probability +16.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:39: Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Ark 15 — ARK win probability +16.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 10 of 11ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:44MSST 4th & 3 at ARK 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:38MSST 4th & 2 at ARK 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    82.9%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:59ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:58MSST 4th & 9 at ARK 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ARK 4th & 2 at MSST 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:25MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:27MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:46ARK 4th & 17 at MSST 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    32.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:49ARK 4th & 18 at ARK 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:39MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−1.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:50MSST 4th & 1 at ARK 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.9%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−3.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−10.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:50ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:20ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−3.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:58MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 17, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:41MSST 4th & 2 at ARK 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%−2.0
    85% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−16.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:52ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−4.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:32MSST 4th & 2 at ARK 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    30.8%−2.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−16.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:39ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 18, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%−2.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:25MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.1%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:59MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:27ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:21ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:50MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1INT TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
86.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 12 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.8%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete, broken up by Grant MorganSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
86.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 13 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
86.8%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
86.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
86.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-69
86.8%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted for a TD Greg Brooks Jr. return for 69 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 7:4585% → 84%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
85.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jaden Walley for 16 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
85.4%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
85.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+3
85.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jaden Walley for 3 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+6
85.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
84.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 4 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+3
84.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+1
84.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 1 yd to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+9
83.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
84.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jaden Walley for 3 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+5
84.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+6
84.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
84.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 15
OPP 17
0
84.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Dillon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+17
84.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 17 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
83.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
83.3%
Feleipe Franks run for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
83.4%
George Caratan punt for 48 yds , Austin Williams returns for no gain to the MisSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
83.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cameron GardnerSimilar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
83.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 3 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+34
82.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 34 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
83.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-11
84.0%
K.J. Costello sacked by Eric Gregory for a loss of 11 yards to the MS State 49 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, intentional grounding (K.J. Costello) to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+7
83.1%
K.J. Costello run for 7 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
83.2%
Tucker Day punt for 38 yds, downed at the Ark 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5FUMBLE
13 plays · 91 yds · 0:0218% → 19%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
81.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+4
81.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+1
81.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
81.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 19
-3
81.6%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+10
81.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 10 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
81.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+9
81.4%
Feleipe Franks run for 9 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+52
81.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 52 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
80.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
80.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
80.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 2Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
81.1%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 3 KJ Jefferson fumbled, forced by Marquiss Spencer, recovered by MisSt Londyn CraftSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
80.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+11
80.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 11 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
80.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 17Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
80.6%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+6
80.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 6 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+45
79.9%
Tucker Day punt for 45 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:3323% → 34%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
77.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+3
77.8%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+25
77.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 10 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Marcus Murphy) to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
76.0%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
76.0%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+4
76.2%
Feleipe Franks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
75.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 4 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+12
75.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trey Knox for 12 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
66.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 19 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cameron GardnerSimilar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
69.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
68.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JaVonta Payton, broken up by Bumper PoolSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
68.2%
Tucker Day punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
66.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 18 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
65.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Hudson Henry for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
65.8%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Hudson HenrySimilar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 11
OPP 35
-1
66.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 12
OPP 36
-5
68.1%
George Caratan punt 31 yards to the MS5, downed, PENALTY AR illegal formation 5 yards to the MS41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
68.7%
George Caratan punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:2367% → 66%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
66.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
66.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, broken up by Bumper PoolSimilar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+10
65.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 10 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
67.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 12 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
68.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
65.9%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Joe Foucha return for no gain to the Ark 46 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:2939% → 38%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
61.0%
Trelon Smith run for 11 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
59.9%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trelon SmithSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
60.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trelon SmithSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-8
60.8%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Kobe Jones and Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 18
OWN 39
0
62.2%
George Caratan punt for 43 yds, downed at the MisSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
62.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+5
62.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 5 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
62.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cameron GardnerSimilar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
61.3%
Tucker Day punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
59.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:3940% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.5%
De'Vion Warren run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
60.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 2 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+20
60.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mike Woods for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
58.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Hudson Henry for 9 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+4
57.8%
Feleipe Franks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
58.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trey Knox for 9 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 28
-5
57.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Noah Gatlin) to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+10
57.5%
Trelon Smith run for 10 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
57.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+10
57.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 10 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
57.5%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the MisSt 12Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
38.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Hudson Henry for 12 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 7:2143% → 50%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
42.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
42.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Garrett Shrader for 8 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
43.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
45.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
45.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+8
45.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 8 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
45.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+6
46.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
46.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
46.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
46.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 4 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
46.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+3
31.6%
K.J. Costello run for 3 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
50.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
43.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trey Knox for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
42.5%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
41.1%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-2
41.4%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
43.2%
George Caratan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17INT
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:0345% → 48%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
44.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jaden Walley for 14 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
46.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
47.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 1 yd to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+18
45.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 18 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
45.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 10 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-26
47.5%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Joe Foucha return for 26 yds to the Ark 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0069% → 63%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
31.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to TJ Hammonds for loss of 5 yards to the AR42 (Marcus Murphy), PENALTY AR illegal block (Tyson Morris) 10 yards to the AR37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+4
34.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 4 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+2
34.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trelon Smith for 2 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 14
OWN 43
0
34.9%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
36.7%
George Caratan punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaden Walley at the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
35.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+6
35.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+2
34.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 2 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
33.9%
Reed Bowman punt for 51 yds, downed at the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
29.6%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 12
OWN 30
-7
31.8%
De'Vion Warren run for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 21 De'Vion Warren fumbled, recovered by MisSt Aaron BruleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0042% → 37%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
42.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+7
42.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 2
OPP 13
0
40.0%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the Ark 13Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 2
OPP 13
0
37.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cameron GardnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 72%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
25.2%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 13Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
25.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
26.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trelon SmithSimilar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 10
OWN 13
+20
27.7%
George Caratan punt for 37 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 20 yds to the Ark 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0037% → 32%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
36.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, substitution infraction (Malik Heath) to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+7
34.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
36.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+10
34.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 10 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
36.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
36.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JaVonta Payton, broken up by Simeon BlairSimilar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+5
34.2%
K.J. Costello run for 5 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 2
OPP 7
-2
31.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
15.6%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+3
15.5%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 1
OWN 18
0
16.0%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 18Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
17.2%
George Caratan punt for 46 yds , Jaden Walley returns for no gain to the MisSt 37 Jaden Walley fumbled, recovered by Ark Deon EdwardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25PUNT
12 plays · -13 yds · 2:0391% → 94%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
8.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Hudson Henry for no gain to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
9.0%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+11
5.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 11 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 13
OPP 27
-8
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 21
OPP 35
-15
5.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Mike Woods) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 36
50
0
5.5%
Feleipe Franks run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 36
50
0
5.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
8.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 2
OWN 20
0
8.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
7.8%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cameron GardnerSimilar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+7
7.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
8.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 10 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down to JaVonta Payton for 6 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:21
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Hudson Henry for 12 yds for a TD (A.J. Reed KICK)
-18.9
TD · Q3 3:50
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+18.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:39
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Ark 15
-16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com