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MSST

Mississippi State 44 at LSU 34

LSU
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:39 · Tucker Day punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior+26.4Home team on offense−0.7Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:01: Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +18.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:46: K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 75 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +21.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:14: K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +17.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:01: Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 33 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +27.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. FG · Q4 7:27: Brandon Ruiz 43 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +15.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:27LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:47MSST 4th & 9 at LSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:47LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:39MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:15LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:27LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:19MSST 4th & 9 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00LSU 4th & 1 at MSST 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−2.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−10.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:33LSU 4th & 8 at MSST 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−9.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:23MSST 4th & 6 at LSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−10.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:14LSU 4th & 16 at LSU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−4.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:37LSU 4th & 9 at MSST 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−4.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−15.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:27MSST 4th & 15 at LSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−5.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−19.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:27LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 32, down 3
    Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 9:45LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:45MSST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:20LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:27MSST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:01LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:46MSST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:14MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:01LSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:39MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
82.8%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-8
82.8%
K.J. Costello sacked by JaCoby Stevens for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-2
82.8%
Tucker Day punt for 58 yds , Trey Palmer returns for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
82.4%
Chris Curry run for 2 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+8
82.4%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 8 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
82.4%
Chris Curry run for 7 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
82.5%
Myles Brennan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
82.4%
Myles Brennan run for no gain to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
82.4%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 6:2218% → 21%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
81.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 7 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
81.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+11
81.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 11 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
81.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+22
81.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 22 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
81.5%
LSU Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the LSU 36Similar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 5
OPP 36
+2
81.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 2 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-10
81.4%
Kylin Hill rush for 13 yards to the LSU21, out-of-bounds (Jabril Cox), PENALTY MSU holding (Greg Eiland) 10 yards to the LSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 13
OPP 44
0
81.6%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+25
81.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 25 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
81.4%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
81.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-7
81.5%
K.J. Costello sacked by Ali Gaye for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
79.0%
Brandon Ruiz 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
78.8%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 14 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
79.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
79.5%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Tyrion Davis-PriceSimilar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
78.9%
Myles Brennan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 7
OWN 42
-5
78.6%
Z.Von Rosenberg punt 49 yards to the MSU9, fair catch by Austin Williams, PENALTY LSU illegal formation (Todd Harris) 5 yards to the LSU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
78.4%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:4322% → 22%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
78.4%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-3
78.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kwatrivous Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+5
78.8%
LSU Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+3
77.9%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 2
OWN 22
-5
78.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
78.3%
Tucker Day punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3778% → 77%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
78.2%
Myles Brennan run for 1 yd to the LSU 47Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+5
78.2%
Myles Brennan pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 5 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-7
78.1%
Myles Brennan sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
76.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FUMBLE
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:0023% → 25%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
76.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 11 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+27
76.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 27 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
75.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
75.5%
K.J. Costello sacked by Damone Clark for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 33 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, intentional grounding (K.J. Costello) to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 20
OWN 33
+24
76.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 24 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
75.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
75.1%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-2
75.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LSU JaCoby StevensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
77.6%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
77.1%
Chris Curry run for 3 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-5
76.8%
LSU Penalty, false start (Terrace Marshall Jr.) to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
76.4%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete, broken up by Jordan DavisSimilar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
76.3%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 53 yds, downed at the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2025% → 20%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
74.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
74.8%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete, broken up by Ali GayeSimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 10
OWN 9
-14
80.0%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted for a TD Jabril Cox return for 14 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0021% → 30%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
78.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 2 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+34
78.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 34 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
77.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
77.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete, broken up by Ali GayeSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+31
70.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 31 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 2:1972% → 80%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
72.4%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 7 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+4
72.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
72.7%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Trey PalmerSimilar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+16
72.4%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 16 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+47
74.0%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 47 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
75.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the MisSt 4Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
75.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.9%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 2 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5322% → 33%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
78.4%
Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
77.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
77.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+13
78.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 13 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
78.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Kwatrivous Johnson) to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+4
78.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 4 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
78.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete, broken up by Ali GayeSimilar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+43
67.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 43 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.9%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Arik Gilbert, broken up by Jaden CrumedySimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to John Emery Jr.Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
69.0%
Myles Brennan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
68.5%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:4332% → 33%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
68.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete, broken up by Cordale FlottSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+21
68.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 21 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
66.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 9
50
0
64.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 9
50
0
65.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete, broken up by Jay WardSimilar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 9
50
0
66.8%
Reed Bowman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15END OF HALF
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:4767% → 63%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
67.3%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 14 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.5%
Myles Brennan run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
66.6%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 6 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
66.6%
Myles Brennan sacked by Marquiss Spencer for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+10
63.1%
John Emery Jr. run for 10 yds to the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 5:2767% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.9%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 12 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
67.8%
Chris Curry run for 9 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+6
69.7%
Chris Curry run for 6 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
70.0%
Chris Curry run for 4 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
70.1%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 5 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
69.7%
Chris Curry run for 2 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
70.1%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 20 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
71.1%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Arik Gilbert, broken up by Fred PetersSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
71.1%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Trey Palmer for 3 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+6
69.8%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 6 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+6
68.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
71.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the MisSt 2Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
71.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the MisSt 2Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-6
69.8%
Myles Brennan sacked by Erroll Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 8Similar
Q3 9:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
71.1%
Cade York 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:1033% → 43%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+33
66.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 33 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
63.6%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks, broken up by Jay WardSimilar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
63.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+34
64.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 34 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
62.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the LSU 4Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
62.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 6Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
63.6%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
57.1%
Brandon Ruiz 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2260% → 79%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
62.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+28
60.5%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Racey McMath for 28 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
60.7%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
79.1%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
55.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 75 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20INT
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:0058% → 63%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.4%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
58.9%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Koy Moore for 5 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
59.7%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
59.7%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
60.1%
Myles Brennan run for 3 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
60.5%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 5 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
62.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 7 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
63.2%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
62.6%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-20
63.2%
Myles Brennan pass intercepted Esaias Furdge return for 20 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 5:3247% → 72%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
53.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 12 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
52.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell, broken up by Eli RicksSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
52.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+26
54.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 26 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
46.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 13 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
46.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kylin Hill, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Neil Farrell) 1 yards to the LSU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
28.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0030% → 27%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
29.8%
Chris Curry run for 12 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
30.7%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
30.3%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Arik Gilbert, broken up by Tyrus WheatSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-6
28.6%
Myles Brennan sacked by Nathan Pickering and Kobe Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
27.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 58 yds, downed at the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
27.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 4
OWN 17
0
27.3%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Eli Ricks return for no gain to the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:5229% → 57%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
29.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+7
29.8%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Racey McMath for 7 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
57.4%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 33 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
45.7%
K.J. Costello sacked by JaCoby Stevens for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 23 K.J. Costello fumbled, recovered by LSU JaCoby Stevens , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1757% → 63%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
57.4%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
57.4%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-2
54.4%
Myles Brennan sacked by Marquiss Spencer for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
63.4%
Cade York 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:1042% → 62%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
57.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 18 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
51.7%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+37
53.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 37 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
47.6%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-11
47.6%
K.J. Costello sacked by Jabril Cox for a loss of 11 yards to the LSU 25 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, intentional grounding (K.J. Costello) to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
53.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+43
38.0%
Brandon Ruiz 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.2%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
43.1%
Chris Curry run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
41.6%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Chris CurrySimilar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
40.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 29TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:3669% → 91%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
31.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 5 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+14
29.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 14 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
28.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+27
28.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 27 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
25.1%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
25.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JaVonta Payton, broken up by Jay WardSimilar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+24
9.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 24 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 30INT
16 plays · 49 yds · 2:478% → 3%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
7.7%
Myles Brennan sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 10 yards to the LSU 15Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-6
7.6%
Myles Brennan sacked by Jaden Crumedy for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 9Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+11
7.2%
Myles Brennan pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 11 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+15
7.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (Emmanuel Forbes) to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
8.1%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 7 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+13
9.4%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 13 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
10.0%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Racey McMath for 15 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
11.8%
Myles Brennan pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 9 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+5
4.5%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 5 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
4.5%
LSU Penalty, false start (Racey McMath) to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 15
OPP 21
0
4.1%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 15
OPP 21
-5
4.0%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 10 yards to the MSU11, out-of-bounds (Fred Peters), PENALTY LSU illegal motion (Racey McMath) 5 yards to the MSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 20
OPP 26
0
4.0%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Racey McMathSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 20
OPP 26
0
3.4%
Myles Brennan pass intercepted, touchback. Emmanuel Forbes return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:01
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 33 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
+27.6
TD · Q3 4:46
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 75 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-21.8
TD · Q3 5:01
Myles Brennan pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
+18.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com