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Kentucky 13 at Auburn 29

AUB
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:21 · Bo Nix punt for 39 yds, downed at the Kent 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+9.5Home team on offense+3.1Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:42: Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 11 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +12.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:00: Terry Wilson pass complete to Akeem Hayes for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UK win probability +15.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:34: D.J. Williams run for 8 yds to the Kent 15 — AUB win probability +9.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:21: Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 4 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +13.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:17: Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 21 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 6UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00AUB 4th & 1 at UK 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00UK 4th & 3 at AUB 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−0.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:56AUB 4th & 1 at UK 16, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.0%−0.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:16UK 4th & 28 at AUB 48, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:32AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:53UK 4th & 8 at UK 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:21AUB 4th & 8 at UK 41, up 1
    Close callPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−0.9
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:39UK 4th & 11 at UK 1, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−3.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00AUB 4th & 14 at AUB 38, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−4.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:21UK 4th & 5 at UK 30, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:11UK 4th & 15 at UK 24, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:45AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 46, up 16
    Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 6:44UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:30AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:42AUB Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:00UK Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    36.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:21AUB Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:17AUB Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
70.1%
Bo Nix run for 12 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
70.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
70.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 8 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
70.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete, broken up by Yusuf CorkerSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
70.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
70.1%
Bo Nix punt for 38 yds, downed at the Kent 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 6:2330% → 35%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
69.9%
Asim Rose run for 7 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+2
69.8%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+2
69.9%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
69.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 17Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+3
69.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 3 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+23
69.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 23 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
69.7%
Terry Wilson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 3
50
+8
69.6%
Asim Rose run for 8 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
69.6%
Asim Rose run for no gain to the Aub 42Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
69.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Kavosiey Smoke for 2 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+5
69.7%
Terry Wilson RSC pass complete to Josh Ali for 4 yards to the AU36 (Colby Wooden;Jaylin Simpson), PENALTY AU offside (T.D. Moultry) 5 yards to the AU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+35
65.1%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 35 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:0766% → 71%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
65.9%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 25Similar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+7
65.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 7 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+11
66.0%
Shaun Shivers run for 11 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+26
66.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 26 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
67.1%
Eli Stove run for 7 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+23
67.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 23 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.5%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Grant Loy pass to John Samuel Shenker for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 36 yds · 4:3031% → 32%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
69.1%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 19Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+8
69.3%
Terry Wilson run for 8 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
69.4%
Terry Wilson run for 12 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
68.6%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
68.7%
Terry Wilson run for 5 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+10
68.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 10 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
68.1%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
68.1%
Terry Wilson RF pass complete to Asim Rose for no gain to the AU46 (K.J. Britt), PENALTY AU offside (Caleb Johnson) 5 yards to the AU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
68.0%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
68.1%
Terry Wilson run for no gain to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
67.9%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete, broken up by Christian TuttSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
69.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 14 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
70.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
69.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 5 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+17
69.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Ze'Vian Capers for 17 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
70.3%
Bo Nix run for 9 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
70.3%
D.J. Williams run for no gain to the Kent 16Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
69.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
69.1%
D.J. Williams run for no gain to the Kent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
68.2%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 14 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
68.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 2 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-5
67.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+33
68.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 33 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
66.5%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+6
66.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 6 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+1
66.4%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
65.9%
Terry Wilson LF pass complete to Asim Rose for 8 yards to the AU22, out-of-bounds (Zakoby McClain), PENALTY UK holding (Keaton Upshaw) 10 yards to the AU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 20
OPP 40
-4
67.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 24
OPP 44
-4
67.3%
Terry Wilson sacked by DaQuan Newkirk for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 28
OPP 48
0
67.9%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete, broken up by Jaylin SimpsonSimilar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 28
OPP 48
0
68.7%
Max Duffy punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5269% → 68%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
68.6%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
68.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 2 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-1
67.9%
Bo Nix sacked by Jamin Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
68.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, downed at the Kent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8INT
14 plays · 64 yds · 3:5433% → 36%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
67.3%
Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+6
65.9%
Asim Rose run for 6 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
65.9%
Asim Rose run for 3 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
65.6%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+40
66.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 40 yds to the Aub 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
64.4%
Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+5
64.4%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Aub 3Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+1
62.7%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the Aub 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
61.6%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the Aub 1Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.1%
Terry Wilson run for no gain to the Aub 1Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-45
63.9%
Terry Wilson pass intercepted for a 1ST down Roger McCreary return for 30 yds to the Aub 0 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, personal foul (Derick Hall) to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
68.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
67.0%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+4
67.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 4 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
68.0%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Justin RiggSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
69.1%
Max Duffy punt for 53 yds, downed at the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
67.9%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+32
67.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 32 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
70.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
70.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
70.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Ze'Vian CapersSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
67.4%
Bo Nix punt for 39 yds, downed at the Kent 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
67.0%
Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the Kent 2Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 2
-1
67.3%
Kavosiey Smoke run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 1Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 11
OWN 1
0
68.4%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 11
OWN 1
0
69.3%
Max Duffy punt for 75 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:1967% → 84%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+25
67.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 25 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
69.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+12
70.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 12 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
70.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-5
71.3%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (Ze'Vian Capers) to the Kent 37Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
70.3%
KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Kelvin Joseph) to the Kent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
71.3%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (Alec Jackson) to the Kent 27Similar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+13
70.7%
Bo Nix run for 13 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+5
71.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Kent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
71.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
71.3%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 11Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
83.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 11 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:3420% → 40%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
79.6%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
80.0%
Terry Wilson run for 9 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
78.5%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
78.5%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+16
78.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Akeem Hayes for 16 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
77.1%
Josh Ali pass incomplete to Terry WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
77.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 6 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+25
77.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 25 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
75.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 3 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+3
75.2%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
60.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Akeem Hayes for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:0067% → 64%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
66.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 17 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
69.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 5 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-9
70.1%
N/A run for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 38
0
65.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to D.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 38
+6
63.8%
Aidan Marshall punt for 42 yds , Josh Ali returns for 6 yds to the Kent 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2236% → 34%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
64.3%
Terry Wilson run for 1 yd to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+5
64.5%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 5 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+7
66.2%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 23 Terry Wilson fumbled, recovered by Aub Jamien Sherwood , return for 7 yds to the Kent 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:1375% → 89%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
75.2%
D.J. Williams run for 8 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+9
75.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 9 yds to the Kent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
75.2%
D.J. Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 7Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
75.2%
D.J. Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 4Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 4 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.6%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
87.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 2 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
88.1%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Allen Dailey Jr., broken up by Roger McCrearySimilar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-3
89.4%
Max Duffy run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:5090% → 97%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
90.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+21
96.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 21 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
95.6%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
95.6%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-6
95.9%
Terry Wilson sacked by Owen Pappoe for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 24Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 15
OWN 24
0
96.0%
Max Duffy punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
97.0%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+7
96.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to D.J. Williams for 7 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
96.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds, downed at the Kent 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22FUMBLE
11 plays · 80 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
97.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 6 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+12
97.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 12 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
97.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Kavosiey Smoke for 8 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 2
OWN 35
0
97.1%
Terry Wilson pass incomplete to DeMarcus Harris, broken up by Nehemiah PritchettSimilar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+6
97.1%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 6 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
97.1%
Terry Wilson LSL pass incomplete to Keaton Upshaw, PENALTY AU pass interference (Jamien Sherwood) 15 yards to the AU44, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
97.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 3 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+12
97.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 12 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
96.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 16 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
96.5%
Terry Wilson run for 8 yds to the Aub 5 KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal block (Allen Dailey Jr.) to the Aub 15Similar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 12
OPP 15
+4
96.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 4 yds DeMarcus Harris fumbled, forced by Owen Pappoe, recovered by Aub Owen PappoeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
98.4%
N/A pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+4
98.4%
D.J. Williams run for 4 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+6
98.4%
D.J. Williams run for 6 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 19Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 12
OWN 19
-2
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:00
Terry Wilson pass complete to Akeem Hayes for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-15.2
TD · Q4 10:21
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 4 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)
+13.9
TD · Q3 5:42
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 11 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com