Try the model
ALA

Alabama 38 at Missouri 19

MIZ
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:36 · Sam Johnson punt for 45 yds , Barrett Banister returns for 3 yds to the Misso 18 Barrett Banister fumbled, recovered by Alab Thomas Fletcher
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior−4.9Home team on offense−50.9Score differential−30.7Garbage-time factor−10.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:14: Jaylen Waddle 18 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:37: Najee Harris 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +1.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:00: Harrison Mevis 27 Yd Field Goal — MIZ win probability +1.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:38: Jaylen Waddle 23 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:28: Shawn Robinson pass complete to Tyler Badie for 54 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:06ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:47MIZ 4th & 20 at MIZ 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:27MIZ 4th & 2 at ALA 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:02MIZ 4th & 10 at ALA 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:47MIZ 4th & 9 at MIZ 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:30ALA 4th & 14 at ALA 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:00MIZ 4th & 5 at ALA 10, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:31MIZ 4th & 4 at ALA 34, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:36ALA 4th & 18 at ALA 40, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:05ALA 4th & 8 at MIZ 16, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:00MIZ 4th & 1 at ALA 7, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:46ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:14ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:37ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:38ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:45ALA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:28MIZ Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4997% → 96%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.4%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
3.4%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
3.5%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
3.6%
Sam Johnson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kris Abrams-Draine at the Misso 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:134% → 4%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
3.6%
Damon Hazelton run for no gain to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
3.7%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-10
3.7%
Shawn Robinson sacked by Christian Harris for a loss of 10 yards to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 20
OWN 26
0
3.8%
Grant McKinniss punt for 40 yds, downed at the Alab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:5496% → 96%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
3.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 3 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+20
4.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 20 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
4.0%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+11
4.2%
Najee Harris run for 11 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
4.3%
Mac Jones run for 4 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
4.3%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+13
4.4%
Najee Harris run for 13 yds to the Misso 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
4.4%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Misso 12Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+7
4.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 7 yds to the Misso 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
4.7%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Misso 3Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
4.8%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.5%
Najee Harris 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:085% → 5%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
4.7%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Knox for 23 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
4.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 11 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
5.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Richard Taylor) to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+11
5.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Knox for 11 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
5.3%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Tyler BadieSimilar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+2
5.2%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 2 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 2
OPP 33
-1
5.2%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:0495% → 96%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+46
5.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 46 yds to the Misso 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
4.9%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
5.0%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
4.4%
Jaylen Waddle 18 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6Uncategorized
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:565% → 5%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
4.8%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+5
4.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+9
4.7%
Robinson, Shawn pass sacked for loss of 12 yards to the MISSOURI37 (Moses, Dylan), PENALTY ALABAMA holding 9 yards to the ALABAMA42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI.Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
4.8%
Shawn Robinson run for no gain to the Alab 42 Shawn Robinson fumbled, forced by Josh Jobe, recovered by Misso Shawn RobinsonSimilar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
5.0%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Keke ChismSimilar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
4.9%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Larry Rountree IIISimilar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
4.9%
Grant McKinniss punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 2:1095% → 97%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
4.8%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+18
4.8%
Najee Harris run for 18 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
4.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
4.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Brian Robinson Jr.Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+22
5.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 22 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+34
4.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 34 yds to the Misso 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
4.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 10 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.3%
Najee Harris 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:284% → 4%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
3.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 6 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+10
3.8%
Tyler Badie run for 10 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
3.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 1 yd to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
3.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
3.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton, broken up by Josh JobeSimilar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
3.8%
Grant McKinniss punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0497% → 97%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
3.4%
DeVonta Smith run for a loss of 12 yards to the Alab 12Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 22
OWN 12
-5
3.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Emil Ekiyor Jr.) to the Alab 7Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 27
OWN 7
+8
3.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 8 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 19
OWN 15
+5
3.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 5 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 14
OWN 20
+39
3.5%
Sam Johnson punt for 39 yds , Kris Abrams-Draine returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:154% → 6%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
4.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 4 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-1
4.1%
Shawn Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+13
4.1%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 13 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
4.2%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Dominic GicintoSimilar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
4.2%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 9 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
4.2%
Shawn Robinson run for 3 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
4.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+8
4.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 8 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
4.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-3
4.5%
Shawn Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+6
4.4%
Jalen Knox run for 6 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
5.6%
Harrison Mevis 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2296% → 99%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
4.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Alex Leatherwood) to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
4.2%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+13
4.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 13 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
4.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Evan Neal) to the Alab 32Similar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+3
4.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 3 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+13
4.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 13 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
4.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 14 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
3.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 2 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+9
4.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
3.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
3.6%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Brian Robinson Jr.Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+23
1.4%
Jaylen Waddle 23 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:202% → 1%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.5%
Shawn Robinson run for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
1.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
1.1%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Barrett Banister for 7 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
1.1%
Kris Abrams-Draine run for 3 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-17
0.8%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Shawn Robinson for a loss of 12 yards to the Misso 31 MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Shawn Robinson) to the Misso 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13FUMBLE
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:591% → 1%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.2%
Jalen Knox run for 3 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
1.2%
Robinson, Shawn pass complete to Knox, Jalen for 20 yards to the MISSOURI48, PENALTY MISSOURI holding (Maietti, Michael) 10 yards to the MISSOURI18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+9
0.9%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Keke Chism for 9 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
1.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Knox for 14 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
1.1%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 6 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-10
1.1%
Shawn Robinson run for a loss of 10 yards to the Misso 37 Shawn Robinson fumbled, recovered by Alab Patrick Surtain IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:5599% → 99%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
1.1%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+10
1.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 10 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
0.9%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+11
0.9%
Najee Harris run for 11 yds to the Misso 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.8%
Najee Harris 8 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15FG
19 plays · 55 yds · 8:241% → 1%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.1%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Niko Hea for 9 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
1.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
1.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
1.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
1.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
50
+1
1.1%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+9
1.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 9 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
1.0%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-1
1.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+6
0.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+12
0.9%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Barrett Banister for 12 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
1.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
0.9%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Knox for no gain to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+13
0.9%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 13 yds to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
1.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Alab 4Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
1.0%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Daniel Parker Jr.Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-16
1.0%
Shawn Robinson sacked by LaBryan Ray for a loss of 16 yards to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 1:09
4TH & 0
OPP 20
+37
0.8%
Harrison Mevis 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16FUMBLE
15 plays · 40 yds · 6:5799% → 100%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Trey Sanders run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+23
0.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 23 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
0.4%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Misso 45Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+14
0.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 14 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
0.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+7
0.3%
Bryce Young run for 7 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+4
0.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Misso 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
0.3%
Trey Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 12
OPP 21
-2
0.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Trey Sanders for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 14
OPP 23
-5
0.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 19
OPP 28
+8
0.2%
Bryce Young sacked by Tre Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 43 Bryce Young fumbled, forced by Tre Williams, recovered by Misso Nick Bolton , return for 0 yards , return for 8 yds to the Misso 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:300% → 2%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
0.2%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Keke Chism for 3 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+54
1.5%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Tyler Badie for 54 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18FUMBLE
10 plays · 15 yds · 4:4499% → 99%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
1.0%
Trey Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
0.9%
Trey Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 23Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
0.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 13 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.6%
Trey Sanders run for no gain to the Alab 36Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
0.6%
Bryce Young run for 12 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.6%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
0.6%
Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 8
50
-10
0.6%
Bryce Young sacked by Trajan Jeffcoat for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 18
OWN 40
+3
0.6%
Sam Johnson punt for 45 yds , Barrett Banister returns for 3 yds to the Misso 18 Barrett Banister fumbled, recovered by Alab Thomas FletcherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
0.5%
Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
0.5%
Trey Sanders run for no gain to the Misso 16Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
0.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+34
0.2%
Will Reichard 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
18 plays · 75 yds · 2:000% → 1%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tyler BadieSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Elijah YoungSimilar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jalen Knox for 15 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
0.2%
Connor Bazelak run for 9 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
0.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton, broken up by Josh JobeSimilar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
0.2%
Dawson Downing run for 2 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
0.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 8 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+7
0.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Dawson Downing for 7 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
0.2%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Josh Jobe for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+22
0.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 22 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
0.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Dominic GicintoSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
0.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 9 yds to the Alab 7Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
0.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tyler BadieSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+7
0.6%
Connor Bazelak run for 7 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:38
Jaylen Waddle 23 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Will Reichard Kick)
-2.1
TD · Q2 14:37
Najee Harris 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)
-1.5
TD · Q4 8:28
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Tyler Badie for 54 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com