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App State 7 at Marshall 17

MRSH
2020 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2020 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Xavier Subotsch punt for 45 yds , Talik Keaton returns for no gain to the Marsh 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Pregame prior−8.4Home team on offense+1.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:46: Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 16 — MRSH win probability +3.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:44: Grant Wells run for 12 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +20.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:11: Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd to the Marsh 24 — MRSH win probability +3.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:38: Camerun Peoples run for 11 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST down — MRSH win probability +10.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. MISSED FG · Q4 2:54: Chandler Staton 26 yd FG MISSED — MRSH win probability +6.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 3:41APP 4th & 2 at APP 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:37MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:41APP 4th & 19 at APP 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:31APP 4th & 11 at APP 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:36MRSH 4th & 3 at APP 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    44.7%−0.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:28MRSH 4th & 9 at APP 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 10 at APP 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:21MRSH 4th & 4 at APP 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:06APP 4th & 6 at APP 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:44APP 4th & 5 at APP 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:11MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 29, up 10
    Close callPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00APP 4th & 1 at MRSH 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%−6.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−3.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:16MRSH 4th & 3 at APP 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    79.8%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−7.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:54APP 4th & 6 at MRSH 9, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.8%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−2.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:30MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2APP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:29MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:11APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:44MRSH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:3134% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
33.8%
Brenden Knox run for 21 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
33.8%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
33.8%
Brenden Knox run for 9 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
33.8%
Grant Wells run for 2 yds to the AppSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
33.8%
Brenden Knox run for 15 yds to the AppSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
33.8%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 2Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.0%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
16 plays · 85 yds · 5:1864% → 64%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
35.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for no gain to the AppSt 15Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+13
35.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 13 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
35.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Zac Crosby for 1 yd to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+6
35.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christian Wells for 6 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+5
35.6%
Thomas, Zac rush for 2 yards to the APP37 (HODGE, Darius), PENALTY MAR offside (EDWARDS, Jamare) 5 yards to the APP40, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
35.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for no gain to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
35.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+15
35.5%
MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (Jaylon McClain-Sapp) to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
35.4%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
35.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 8 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+5
35.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
35.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 15 yds to the Marsh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
35.3%
MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (6 Yards) to the Marsh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
35.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 11Similar
Q1 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
35.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 11 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3INT
9 plays · 59 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
36.7%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the Marsh 8Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+19
36.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Broc Thompson for 19 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
36.9%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the Marsh 27Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
36.8%
Brenden Knox run for 6 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+23
36.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 23 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
37.7%
Brenden Knox run for 8 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+3
37.7%
Sheldon Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
37.9%
Grant Wells pass intercepted Ryan Huff return for no gain to the AppSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
38.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
37.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
37.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Mike EvansSimilar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
38.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
39.1%
Sheldon Evans run for 4 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
39.7%
Grant Wells pass incomplete, broken up by Brendan HarringtonSimilar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
38.9%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
38.4%
Robert LeFevre punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-14
38.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Jourdan Heilig) to the AppSt 15Similar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+36
38.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 36 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
37.1%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the Marsh 49Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
37.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-9
37.9%
Zac Thomas sacked by TJ Johnson and Darius Hodge for a loss of 9 yards to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 19
OWN 42
+3
39.0%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 46 yds , Talik Keaton returns for 3 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0840% → 39%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
39.9%
Grant Wells run for 16 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
40.2%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the Marsh 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+1
40.2%
Grant Wells run for 1 yd to the Marsh 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
39.6%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
39.0%
Robert LeFevre punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
39.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+1
39.5%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+10
40.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 10 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
39.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+11
39.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Zac Crosby for 11 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
38.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 8 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
37.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the Marsh 44Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-5
37.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 49Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-5
38.1%
Zac Thomas sacked by TJ Johnson and Koby Cumberlander for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
40.2%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9FG
17 plays · 68 yds · 6:0843% → 48%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
42.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 12 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
43.3%
Brenden Knox run for 5 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+11
44.4%
Brenden Knox run for 11 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
44.9%
MARSHALL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 43Similar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+4
43.6%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
43.9%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+14
43.0%
Brenden Knox run for 14 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
45.3%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
45.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 1 yd to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+6
44.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Sheldon Evans for 6 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+6
43.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Sheldon Evans for 6 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
45.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Shemar Jean-Charles) to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
45.8%
Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 12Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
45.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Broc ThompsonSimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
47.3%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie Johnson, broken up by Shemar Jean-CharlesSimilar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
48.4%
Shane Ciucci 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10INT
12 plays · 56 yds · 1:3453% → 55%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
47.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 9 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
45.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
45.5%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Hennigan, T., PENALTY MAR pass interference (GILMORE, Steven) 15 yards to the MAR47, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
44.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-5
44.1%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Williams, Malik (JOHNSON, Nazeeh), PENALTY APP illegal motion 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 13
50
+15
45.4%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Hennigan, T., PENALTY MAR pass interference (GILMORE, Steven) 15 yards to the MAR35, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
42.9%
MARSHALL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
42.6%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the Marsh 19Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
43.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
45.4%
Zac Thomas pass intercepted Steven Gilmore return for no gain to the Marsh 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
48.7%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
49.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Mike Evans for 11 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
48.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive holding (Rodney Croom) to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
46.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
46.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for no gain to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
48.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen Virgil, broken up by Steven GilmoreSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
50.2%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 45 yds , Talik Keaton returns for no gain to the Marsh 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13PUNT
13 plays · 44 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
51.6%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the Marsh 7Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
51.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Broc ThompsonSimilar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+13
50.1%
Brenden Knox run for 13 yds to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
52.0%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
51.9%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Xavier GainesSimilar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+10
50.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 10 yds to the Marsh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
52.5%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the Marsh 34Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+1
52.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 1 yd to the Marsh 35Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+10
51.2%
WELLS, Grant pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Willie, PENALTY APP pass interference (Jean-Charles, S) 10 yards to the MAR45, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
54.5%
Brenden Knox run for 6 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
55.2%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Shadeed Ahmed, broken up by Shaun JollySimilar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
54.3%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Corey GammageSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
52.3%
Robert LeFevre punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
52.9%
Zac Thomas sacked by Darius Hodge for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 10Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+3
53.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+8
54.6%
Thomas, Zac pass intercepted by MCCLAIN-SAPP, J at the APP20, MCCLAIN-SAPP, J return to the APP20, PENALTY MAR pass interference (MCCLAIN-SAPP, J) 8 yards to the APP21, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
52.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 9 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+4
50.5%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
51.7%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
52.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christian Wells for 4 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
51.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Camerun Peoples for no gain to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
53.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:3457% → 77%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+67
56.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 67 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
77.2%
Grant Wells run for 12 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
74.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Christian Wells, broken up by Jaylon McClain-SappSimilar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
74.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+15
75.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 15 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
73.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
72.7%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
72.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Steven GilmoreSimilar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+11
74.3%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 23 , Talik Keaton returns for 11 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
77.7%
Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd to the Marsh 24Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
77.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Broc ThompsonSimilar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+5
76.4%
Sheldon Evans run for 5 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q3 2:11
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+7
75.6%
Robert LeFevre punt for 43 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 7 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:4123% → 22%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
76.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christian Wells for 10 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
75.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
77.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+7
77.9%
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+41
78.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Mike Evans for 41 yds Mike Evans fumbled, forced by Brandon Drayton, recovered by Marsh Nazeeh JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 66 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
79.9%
Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd to the Marsh 21Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
79.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Broc Thompson for 15 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
80.8%
Xavier Gaines run for 2 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
81.2%
WELLS, Grant pass incomplete to GAINES, Xavier, dropped pass, PENALTY APP pass interference (Jackson, D.) 15 yards to the APP47, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
81.9%
Sheldon Evans run for 5 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
81.9%
Sheldon Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+7
81.0%
Sheldon Evans run for 7 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
82.1%
Grant Wells run for 8 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+4
82.1%
Sheldon Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
82.1%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the AppSt 21Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
82.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Broc Thompson for 3 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+4
81.2%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 14Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 3
OPP 14
0
79.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Broc Thompson, broken up by Kaiden SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 77 yds · 3:4410% → 7%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
90.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 11 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.0%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
88.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 2 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, roughing passer (Darius Hodge) to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
88.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 9 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+13
86.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 13 yds to the Marsh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
86.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
86.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Christian Wells, broken up by Jaylon McClain-SappSimilar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+10
87.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 10 yds to the Marsh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
85.8%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
86.4%
Zac Thomas run for 9 yds to the Marsh 13 Zac Thomas fumbled, forced by Tavante Beckett, recovered by AppSt Camerun Peoples for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
85.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christian Wells for 3 yds to the Marsh 10Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+1
85.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the Marsh 9Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
87.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
93.1%
Chandler Staton 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 2:2493% → 96%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
92.9%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
94.5%
Grant Wells run for 4 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
95.1%
Brenden Knox run for 6 yds to the Marsh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
95.1%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
95.4%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the Marsh 35Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
95.4%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the Marsh 35Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
96.4%
Robert LeFevre punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:163% → 4%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
96.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 20 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
96.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 15 yds to the Marsh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
95.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Derrek PittsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:44
Grant Wells run for 12 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)
+20.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:38
Camerun Peoples run for 11 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST down
+10.3
MISSED FG · Q4 2:54
Chandler Staton 26 yd FG MISSED
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com