Try the model
TROY

Troy 7 at BYU 48

BYU
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:31 · Kyle Coale punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dax Milne at the BYU 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Pregame prior+18.1Home team on offense+19.4Score differential+12.2Garbage-time factor+3.6Blowout margin+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:26: Masen Wake run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +2.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:03: Zach Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +4.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:49: Zach. Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 10 yds for a TD — BYU win probability +6.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:05: B.J. Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +7.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 14:27: Zach. Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 70 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +5.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 13:39TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:06TROY 4th & 1 at BYU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34BYU 4th & 20 at BYU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:51TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:26BYU 4th & 1 at TROY 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:54TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:41BYU 4th & 1 at TROY 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.8%−1.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:05TROY 4th & 28 at TROY 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:43BYU 4th & 2 at TROY 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:43BYU 4th & 2 at TROY 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−3.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:19TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 35, down 14
    Close callPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:31TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:31BYU 4th & 3 at TROY 33, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    95.8%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:15TROY 4th & 2 at BYU 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:17TROY 4th & 24 at BYU 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:56TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 21, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:46TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 29, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:30BYU 4th & 3 at TROY 3, up 38
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:04TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 13, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:26BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:03BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:49BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:05TROY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:27BYU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:50BYU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:54BYU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:0116% → 16%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
84.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+10
84.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 10 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
84.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 5 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
84.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
84.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
84.3%
Kyle Coale punt for 42 yds , Dax Milne returns for no gain to the BYU 22 Dax Milne fumbled, recovered by Troy Jaylon BeasleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2416% → 16%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
84.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+3
84.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+1
83.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the BYU 13Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 1
OPP 13
0
83.8%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the BYU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:1684% → 83%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+22
83.8%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 22 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
83.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+19
83.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 19 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-12
83.9%
Zach. Wilson sacked by Elgin Griffin for a loss of 12 yards to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-12
83.9%
Zach Wilson sacked by Elgin Griffin for a loss of 12 yards to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 22
OWN 45
+3
83.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 19
OWN 48
-1
83.3%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
82.8%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:2817% → 18%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
82.7%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+8
82.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 8 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
82.6%
TROY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 15
OWN 24
-7
82.4%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Khyiris Tonga for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 17Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 22
OWN 17
+3
82.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 3 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 19
OWN 20
+14
82.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 14 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
82.1%
Kyle Coale punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 4:1582% → 84%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
82.2%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 23 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
82.5%
Dax Milne run for 1 yd to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+11
82.3%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 11 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
82.4%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 24 yds to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
82.3%
Zach Wilson run for 2 yds to the Troy 3Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
82.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the Troy 1Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.8%
Lopini Katoa run for no gain to the Troy 1Similar
Q1 1:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.9%
Masen Wake run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:2117% → 16%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
83.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 8 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+9
83.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 9 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
83.3%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
83.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+1
83.5%
Gunnar Watson run for 1 yd to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 8
OWN 37
-5
83.7%
TROY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 13:54
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
83.9%
Kyle Coale punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:4484% → 89%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
83.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+17
83.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 17 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
84.2%
Neil Pau'u pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
84.1%
Zach. Wilson pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+9
83.5%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 9 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
83.6%
Zach. Wilson run for 2 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+41
84.3%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 41 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.6%
Zach Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
Q2 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.6%
Zach. Wilson run for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -18 yds · 1:3813% → 12%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 20Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-7
87.3%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Khyiris Tonga for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 22
OWN 13
-6
87.7%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Zac Dawe for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 7Similar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 28
OWN 7
0
88.1%
Kyle Coale punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dax Milne at the Troy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:1289% → 88%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
88.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+5
89.0%
Dax Milne run for 5 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
88.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 6 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
88.5%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 6 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
88.7%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
88.7%
Zach. Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
88.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 2
OPP 28
-1
88.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 2
OPP 28
-1
88.3%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1012% → 12%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
87.7%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+5
87.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 5 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
87.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+1
88.0%
Kyle Coale punt for 53 yds , Dax Milne returns for 1 yd to the BYU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 3:1788% → 96%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
88.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+6
88.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
88.5%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 9 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+3
88.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+52
89.3%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 52 yds to the Troy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
89.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
96.2%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 10 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:385% → 13%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+55
94.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 55 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
93.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 9 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 1
OPP 6
0
93.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+4
93.9%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.6%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13END OF HALF
9 plays · 41 yds · 0:4990% → 92%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
89.8%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 12 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
89.8%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 17 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
90.4%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 9 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+15
90.4%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
90.5%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 3 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-15
90.7%
BYU Penalty, Illegal Contact (-15 Yards) to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 22
OPP 37
0
90.4%
Zach. Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 22
OPP 37
+54
91.8%
Jake Oldroyd 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:2191% → 96%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+70
95.9%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 70 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:385% → 5%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
95.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
94.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 9 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
94.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
94.9%
Kyle Coale punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dax Milne at the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:3496% → 97%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
96.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+15
96.2%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 15 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
96.6%
TROY Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
96.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
96.7%
Zach. Wilson pass incomplete to Lopini KatoaSimilar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+4
96.7%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 4 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 3
OPP 33
-11
96.5%
Zach. Wilson sacked by Reddy Steward for a loss of 11 yards to the Troy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 20 yds · 2:564% → 3%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
96.4%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
96.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+6
96.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+3
96.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 3 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
96.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 8 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+4
96.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 4 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
96.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 11 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
96.3%
TROY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 20
OPP 32
0
96.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 20
OPP 32
0
96.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kimani VidalSimilar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 20
OPP 32
-4
96.8%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Tyler Batty for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 24
OPP 36
+53
97.0%
Evan Legassey 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 3:2197% → 100%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
97.2%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 12 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
97.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 8 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+19
97.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 19 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
97.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 11 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
98.0%
Zach Wilson run for 7 yds to the Troy 7Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+5
98.3%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Masen Wake for 5 yds to the Troy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Zach Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
99.7%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+5
99.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 5 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 2
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
99.8%
Kyle Coale punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
99.8%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 3 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+37
99.8%
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 37 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
99.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the Troy 18Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+8
99.8%
Dax Milne run for 8 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
99.8%
Masen Wake run for 10 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Gunnar Watson run for no gain to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Kyle Coale punt for 37 yds , Dax Milne returns for no gain to the BYU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:50100% → 100%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Kavika Fonua run for 6 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
Kavika Fonua run for 2 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+8
99.9%
Kavika Fonua run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
50
+7
99.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 7 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Kavika Fonua run for no gain to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
99.9%
Kavika Fonua run for 4 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+29
99.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Kyle Griffitts for 29 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.9%
Kavika Fonua run for 4 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
99.9%
Kavika Fonua run for 3 yds to the Troy 3Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
99.9%
Jake Oldroyd 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:200% → 0%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Jacob Free pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Orlando LaceySimilar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Jacob Free pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Kyle Coale punt for 59 yds, fair catch by Dax Milne at the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24Uncategorized
11 plays · 68 yds · 6:06100% → 100%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
99.9%
Miles Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+14
99.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Kody Epps for 14 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Miles Davis for 7 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+11
99.9%
Miles Davis run for 11 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
99.9%
Kody Epps run for 5 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
100.0%
Miles Davis run for no gain to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+23
100.0%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Miles Davis for 23 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
100.0%
Miles Davis run for 11 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
100.0%
Miles Davis run for no gain to the Troy 3Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:05
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q2 1:49
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 10 yds for a TD
+6.4
TD · Q3 14:27
Zach. Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 70 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com