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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:00 · Joshua Sloan punt for 42 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:57: Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:10: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 40 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:15: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tarik Black for 5 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — UTEP win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:44: Timeout TEXAS, clock 01:44 — UTEP win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTEP made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 12:56UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 26, down 7Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:00UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q1 3:43UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 2:09TEX 4th & 12 at UTEP 26, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.9%−0.123% to convertField goalTheir call99.0%64% to makePunt98.6%−0.4average punt
- Q1 0:00UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 33, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it1.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q2 9:23UTEP 4th & 9 at TEX 32, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call0.5%51% to makePunt0.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:16TEX 4th & 6 at UTEP 14, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%84% to makePunt99.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 3:44UTEP 4th & 2 at TEX 37, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%57% to convertField goal0.2%−0.140% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:46UTEP 4th & 2 at TEX 20, down 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%57% to convertField goal0.1%−0.175% to makePunt-0.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 7:44TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 29, up 42Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:26TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 18, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 3:25UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 36, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 0:28UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 27, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:07UTEP 4th & 15 at UTEP 45, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:53TEX 4th & 3 at UTEP 8, up 56Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%47% to convertField goal99.9%−0.190% to makePunt99.5%−0.5average punt
- Q4 1:17UTEP 4th & 4 at TEX 46, down 56Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.148% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.123% to makePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 14:41TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:32TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:57TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:10TEX Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:15TEX Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:06TEX Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEXDrive 1TD2 plays · 78 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
99.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 78 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:451% → 1%
TEXDrive 3TD11 plays · 67 yds · 3:19100% → 99%
Q1 12:04
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
99.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 2 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 5 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+15
99.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 15 yds to the UTEP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 20 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 14 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5TD8 plays · 70 yds · 2:5599% → 99%
Q1 7:26
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+11
99.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tarik Black for 11 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+27
99.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tarik Black for 27 yds to the UTEP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
99.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 11 yds to the UTEP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:071% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7MISSED FG6 plays · 26 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
UTEPDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:011% → 1%
Q1 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+42
99.4%
Joshua Sloan punt for 42 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9TD4 plays · 76 yds · 0:4099% → 100%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+25
99.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 25 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
99.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 11 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
99.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 40 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10INT3 plays · -1 yds · 0:440% → 0%
TEXDrive 11TD3 plays · 42 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
99.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tarik Black for 4 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+33
99.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tarik Black for 33 yds Tarik Black fumbled, recovered by Texas Brayden Liebrock for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tarik Black for 5 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12MISSED FG11 plays · 43 yds · 2:460% → 0%
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 12 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+9
99.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
50
+17
99.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 17 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13FG11 plays · 54 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q2 8:42
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
99.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 3 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brayden Liebrock for 1 yd to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+10
99.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brayden Liebrock for 10 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+22
99.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 22 yds to the UTEP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14FG14 plays · 46 yds · 4:170% → 0%
Q2 5:50
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+6
99.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+30
99.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 30 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 8 yds to the Texas 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
99.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 43 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
99.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 11 yds to the UTEP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+17
99.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Kai Money for 17 yds to the UTEP 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Kai Money for 6 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17DOWNS13 plays · 55 yds · 5:090% → 0%
Q3 14:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
99.9%
TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Moro Ojomo) to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+18
99.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 18 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
99.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 9 yds to the Texas 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q3 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 2 yds to the Texas 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19PUNT3 plays · 4 yds · 0:540% → 0%
TEXDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q3 5:26
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+45
99.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 45 yds , Justin Garrett returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q3 4:03
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Miles Banks for 6 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22TD3 plays · 68 yds · 0:23100% → 100%
UTEPDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:430% → 0%
TEXDrive 24TD9 plays · 54 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
UTEPDrive 25PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 3:430% → 0%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
100.0%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 11 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
100.0%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Josh Farr for 6 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+8
100.0%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
50
+6
100.0%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Miles Banks for 6 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-6
100.0%
Calvin Brownholtz sacked by Alfred Collins for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 45Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Joshua Sloan punt for 39 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for no gain to the Texas 45 UTEP Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-14 Yards) to the Texas 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26DOWNS8 plays · 62 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+40
100.0%
Hudson Card run for 1 yd to the UTEP 15 for a 1ST down Malcolm Epps for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:10
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 40 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 4:57
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 12:15
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tarik Black for 5 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
-0.1