Try the model
CLT

Charlotte 20 at App State 35

APP
2020 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2020 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:04 · Connor Bowler punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Pregame prior+6.9Home team on offense+15.7Garbage-time factor+2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.4Score differential+4.0Blowout margin+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:30: Tre Harbison III run for 14 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +5.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 3:15: Jonathan Cruz 49 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +5.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 1:51: Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 51 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +14.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:35: Ryker Casey kickoff for 62 yds , Aaron McAllister return for 97 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +16.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:08: Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +14.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CLT made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:30APP 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:57CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:10CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:52CLT 4th & 6 at APP 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−4.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 10 at APP 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:55APP 4th & 3 at CLT 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−0.7
    77% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−7.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:15CLT 4th & 7 at APP 32, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.1%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:04CLT 4th & 20 at CLT 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−3.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:13CLT 4th & 10 at APP 20, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.7 ptsWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−7.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:30CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:18APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:50APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:51APP Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:08APP Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.9
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:15APP Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.6%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Micaleous ElderSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.6%
Chris Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
85.6%
Chris Reynolds run for 7 yds to the Charl 33 Chris Reynolds fumbled, forced by Shaun Jolly,Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
85.6%
Connor Bowler punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 46 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
85.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 22 yds to the Charl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
85.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 8 yds to the Charl 22Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+12
85.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 12 yds to the Charl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
85.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the Charl 9Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
85.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 8 yds to the Charl 1Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+3
85.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the Charl 9 Marcus Williams Jr. fumbled, forced by Ben DeLuca, recovered by Charl Tyler Murray , return for 3 yds to the Charl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3TD
13 plays · 91 yds · 6:0416% → 21%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
84.3%
Tre Harbison III run for 6 yds to the Charl 15Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+1
84.3%
Tre Harbison III run for 1 yd to the Charl 16Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+29
84.4%
Tre Harbison III run for 29 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
84.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 8 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
84.0%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Micaleous ElderSimilar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 2
OPP 47
-1
84.0%
Aaron McAllister run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+5
84.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Jordon Earle) to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
84.0%
Tre Harbison III run for 2 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+9
84.0%
Victor Tucker run for 9 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
83.9%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Victor TuckerSimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
84.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 5 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+13
84.0%
Chris Reynolds run for 13 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
78.9%
Tre Harbison III run for 14 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
79.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 20 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
80.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 5
50
-15
80.5%
Harrington, D. rush for 4 yards to the CLT46 (DELUCA, Ben), PENALTY APP personal foul (Hannon, Noah) 15 yards to the APP35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+4
79.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+11
79.6%
Zac Thomas run for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 5
50
0
80.0%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Nafees Lyon at the Charl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
77.7%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass incomplete to TUCKER, Victor, dropped pass, PENALTY CLT pass interference 8 yards to the CLT8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 18
OWN 8
+20
77.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 20 yds to the Charl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
77.5%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Ryan CarriereSimilar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
77.7%
Chris Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Charl 33Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
77.5%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Aaron McAllister, broken up by Shemar Jean-CharlesSimilar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
77.9%
Connor Bowler punt for 34 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for no gain to the AppSt 33 Thomas Hennigan fumbled, recovered by AppSt Thomas HenniganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:0177% → 81%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
76.9%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the AppSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+14
76.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 14 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
77.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the Charl 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+10
77.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 10 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
77.7%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+14
77.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 14 yds to the Charl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
78.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 8 yds to the Charl 16Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+16
81.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 16 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.9%
Tre Harbison III run for 1 yd to the Charl 26Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
78.9%
Tre Harbison III run for 5 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
79.0%
Chris Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Charl 33Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
79.3%
Connor Bowler punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 21 , Thomas Hennigan returns for 1 yd to the AppSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:1379% → 85%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
78.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 22Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-2
78.9%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 20Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 11
OWN 20
-5
78.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 15Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+18
78.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 18 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
79.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 16 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
80.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 9
50
+15
80.2%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Hennigan, T., PENALTY CLT pass interference (LYON, Nafees) 15 yards to the CLT35, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
80.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
80.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+15
80.2%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Charl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
80.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 8 yds to the Charl 9Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+8
80.7%
Zac Thomas run for 8 yds to the Charl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:5117% → 24%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
82.8%
Tre Harbison III run for 22 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
81.6%
Tre Harbison III run for 3 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+41
81.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 41 yds to the AppSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
80.2%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Aaron McAllisterSimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
80.2%
Tre Harbison III run for 1 yd to the AppSt 9Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
81.4%
Chris Reynolds run for 3 yds to the AppSt 6Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
75.7%
Jonathan Cruz 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10MISSED FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 1:5279% → 82%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
79.4%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+17
79.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 17 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
80.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 40Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+3
79.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+15
79.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 15 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
80.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 10 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
81.1%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
81.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+15
81.0%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Hennigan, T., PENALTY CLT pass interference (MCMILLIAN,Lance) 15 yards to the CLT17, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+34
82.1%
Chandler Staton 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Damon Weldon Siah Sa'o return for 20 yds to the Charl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
78.2%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
77.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+7
76.7%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 52 yds , Victor Tucker returns for 7 yds to the Charl 32 CHARLOTTE Penalty, IB (10 Yards) to the Charl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12INT
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:0022% → 25%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
77.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Rico Arnold for 15 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
77.1%
Tre Harbison III run for 1 yd to the Charl 36Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-4
77.0%
Tre Harbison III run for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 32Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+21
78.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 21 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
74.9%
Chris Reynolds run for 7 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
74.7%
Chris Reynolds run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-46
74.9%
Chris Reynolds pass intercepted Brendan Harrington return for 46 yds to the Charl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13INT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4381% → 80%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
81.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the Charl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
81.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the Charl 21Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-5
81.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Charl 26Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
81.6%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the Charl 24Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+5
80.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Mike Evans for 5 yds to the Charl 19Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+2
79.5%
Zac Thomas pass intercepted Tyler Murray return for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 3:3322% → 30%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
78.5%
Aaron McAllister run for 17 yds to the Charl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
77.8%
Tre Harbison III run for 5 yds to the Charl 35Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
76.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 5 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
76.6%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Micaleous Elder, broken up by Shemar Jean-CharlesSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
77.2%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Rico ArnoldSimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
78.2%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Taylor Thompson, broken up by Steven JonesSimilar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+15
79.6%
BOWLER, Connor punt 44 yards to the APP16, Hennigan, T. return to the APP17, out-of-bounds (FAISON-WALDEN,B), PENALTY APP roughing the kicker (Brown, KeSean) 15 yards to the APP45, 1ST DOWN CLT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
75.1%
Tre Harbison III run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+12
76.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 12 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
73.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 3 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
73.3%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Ryan CarriereSimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
75.5%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Cameron Dollar, broken up by Brendan HarringtonSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
69.7%
Jonathan Cruz 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2472% → 89%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
72.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
73.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+8
74.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 8 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
89.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 51 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:2771% → 92%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
71.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 12 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
73.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for no gain to the AppSt 39Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+16
72.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 16 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
74.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 11 yds to the Charl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
75.9%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the Charl 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-2
75.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+13
73.4%
Zac Thomas run for 13 yds to the Charl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
75.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for 7 yds to the Charl 15Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
77.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the Charl 13Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
76.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the Charl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
77.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 8 yds to the Charl 3Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 2
OPP 3
-1
77.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 4Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
92.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0011% → 9%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
88.9%
Tre Harbison III run for 1 yd to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
88.8%
Tre Harbison III run for 2 yds to the Charl 40Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+15
89.1%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass incomplete to TUCKER, Victor, PENALTY APP pass interference (Jackson, D.) 15 yards to the APP45, 1ST DOWN CLT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
86.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Aaron McAllister for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 14
OPP 49
-6
88.6%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Caleb Spurlin for a loss of 6 yards to the Charl 45Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 20
OWN 45
0
90.1%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Rico Arnold, broken up by Shemar Jean-CharlesSimilar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 20
OWN 45
0
90.8%
Connor Bowler punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
92.5%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 20 Camerun Peoples fumbled, forced by Tyler Murray, recovered by Charl Nafees LyonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1113% → 8%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
87.2%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Micaleous ElderSimilar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
87.5%
Tre Harbison III run for no gain to the AppSt 20Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
89.4%
Chris Reynolds run for no gain to the AppSt 20Similar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 10
OPP 20
0
92.2%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Cameron Dollar, broken up by Kaiden SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 3:4895% → 99%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the AppSt 20Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+34
94.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 34 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
95.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 22 yds to the Charl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
95.6%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the Charl 20Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
95.6%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the Charl 15Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+15
98.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 15 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.1%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
99.1%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Victor TuckerSimilar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+14
99.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tre Harbison III for 14 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.0%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Rico Arnold, broken up by Shemar Jean-CharlesSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
99.1%
Chris Reynolds pass intercepted Kaiden Smith return for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:35
Ryker Casey kickoff for 62 yds , Aaron McAllister return for 97 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
-16.2
TD · Q3 1:51
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 51 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q4 10:08
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com