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TLSA

Tulsa 7 at Oklahoma State 16

OKST
2020 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2020 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:01 · Zach Smith sacked by Malcolm Rodriguez for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Pregame prior+2.1Home team on offense+15.6Garbage-time factor+4.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:38: Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 16 yds for a TD (Tyler Tipton KICK) — TLSA win probability +7.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:35: Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 4 yds to the Tulsa 33 — TLSA win probability +10.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:56: Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +19.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:27: Alex Hale 40 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +8.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:50: Shane Illingworth run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 5 — OKST win probability +6.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 11:49TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:13OKST 4th & 7 at TLSA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:02TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 31, down 3
    Close callPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:21TLSA 4th & 10 at OKST 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:40OKST 4th & 13 at OKST 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:48TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:16OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:25TLSA 4th & 2 at OKST 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−0.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:40TLSA 4th & 2 at OKST 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:08OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:54TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:34OKST 4th & 2 at TLSA 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    84.4%−1.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:08OKST 4th & 21 at OKST 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−3.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:25TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:43OKST 4th & 10 at TLSA 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:57TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 29, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−3.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:02TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:57TLSA 4th & 8 at OKST 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−13.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:27OKST 4th & 11 at TLSA 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−3.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−16.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:01TLSA 4th & 24 at TLSA 11, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:18OKST 4th & 12 at TLSA 12, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 1:38TLSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:56OKST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:067% → 7%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.4%
Keylon Stokes run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
93.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 6 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
93.2%
Deneric Prince run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
93.1%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+6
93.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+2
92.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 2 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+6
92.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 49 yds , Dillon Stoner returns for 6 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2FG
18 plays · 76 yds · 6:2793% → 91%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
92.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+6
92.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 6 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+8
92.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 8 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
92.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 1 yd to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+17
92.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Logan Carter for 17 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
92.3%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Zaven Collins for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 41Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+7
92.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for 7 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+1
92.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 16 yds to the OKLAST 36 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
92.0%
Ld Brown run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
92.0%
Ld Brown run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+6
91.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
91.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
91.8%
TULSA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+4
91.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
91.6%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Robert Revels III for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+8
91.4%
Ld Brown run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-2
91.3%
Ld Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
91.2%
Alex Hale 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:039% → 9%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
91.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
91.2%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+9
91.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 9 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
91.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 29 yds, downed at the OKSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
91.0%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 37 Spencer Sanders fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2410% → 10%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
90.4%
T.K. Wilkerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 38Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
90.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr., broken up by Rodarius WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 11
OPP 38
-5
90.5%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Sam Crawford Jr.) to the OKSt 43Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 16
OPP 43
+6
90.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 6 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+9
90.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 9 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2090% → 90%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
90.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 24Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+5
90.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-4
90.0%
Ethan Bullock sacked by Anthony Goodlow for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 13
OWN 25
+2
89.5%
Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27 TULSA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Tulsa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4710% → 10%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
90.0%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
89.8%
Zach Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
89.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
90.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2590% → 89%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.8%
Ethan Bullock pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
89.6%
Ld Brown run for 8 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-5
89.8%
Ethan Bullock sacked by Zaven Collins for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 39Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
89.0%
Tom Hutton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9DOWNS
15 plays · 60 yds · 5:3011% → 13%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
89.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+15
89.0%
Smith, Zach pass incomplete, PENALTY OKLAST face mask 15 yards to the TULSA38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
88.5%
Wilkerson, T.K. rush for 4 yards to the TULSA42, PENALTY TULSA holding 10 yards to the TULSA28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+6
88.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 6 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+15
88.8%
Deneric Prince run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
87.7%
Smith, Zach pass incomplete to Santana, JuanCarlos, PENALTY OKLAST holding 10 yards to the OKLAST41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
87.6%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-1
87.4%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 37Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
87.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the OKSt 32Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-1
87.0%
T.K. Wilkerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+3
87.4%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
86.3%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
86.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to T.K. Wilkerson for 4 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-1
86.4%
Zach Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 22Similar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+1
86.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the OKSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2788% → 86%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
87.7%
Ethan Bullock run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 17Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 14
OWN 17
+2
87.3%
Ethan Bullock pass complete to Landon Wolf for 2 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+5
86.9%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the OKSt 24Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
86.8%
Ethan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:08
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
85.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 39 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for no gain to the Tulsa 37 Keylon Stokes fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0914% → 14%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
86.1%
Zach Smith run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
85.4%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+1
85.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 1 yd to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 3:54
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+34
85.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 40 yds , Dillon Stoner returns for 34 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1687% → 86%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
87.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+5
86.9%
Ethan Bullock run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+1
86.5%
Ethan Bullock pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 1 yd to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 2
OPP 41
-3
85.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:4416% → 26%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+41
83.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 41 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
81.7%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 16Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+16
73.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 16 yds for a TD (Tyler Tipton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:2178% → 74%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
77.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+4
77.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+3
73.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:4777% → 73%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
76.7%
Ethan Bullock pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
50
0
78.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
50
-4
78.1%
Ethan Bullock sacked by Zaven Collins for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 46Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 14
OWN 46
-8
75.2%
Ethan Bullock pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 38Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 21
OWN 38
0
73.4%
Tom Hutton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:3527% → 27%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
73.5%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
71.3%
Deneric Prince run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 39 TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
71.6%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
71.6%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 2
OWN 31
-5
72.4%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
73.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3273% → 68%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
72.9%
Ethan Bullock pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 2 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
73.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+15
73.1%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
74.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for no gain to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
74.0%
Ethan Bullock pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 1 yd to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 9
OPP 40
-1
72.8%
Ethan Bullock sacked by Cullen Wick for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
67.8%
Tom Hutton punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3732% → 34%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
68.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
66.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-5
65.7%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
66.9%
Zach Smith run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
66.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:0168% → 67%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
67.9%
Ethan Bullock pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
67.4%
Ld Brown run for 2 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+9
62.7%
Ethan Bullock pass complete to Landon Wolf for 9 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
66.3%
Ld Brown run for 19 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
67.3%
Ethan Bullock pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 10 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
67.4%
Ethan Bullock pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-7
67.2%
Ethan Bullock pass intercepted Allie Green IV return for 7 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3343% → 45%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
57.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 4 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+13
55.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 13 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
53.7%
Keylon Stokes run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
52.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
52.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Cannon Montgomery, broken up by Tanner McCalisterSimilar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
55.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:5958% → 81%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+24
58.4%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 24 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
61.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 3
50
+3
62.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
61.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jelani Woods for 8 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+36
61.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 36 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
81.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22MISSED FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 4:4723% → 24%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.1%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
77.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
76.3%
Smith, Zach pass incomplete to Stokes, Keylon, PENALTY OKLAST pass interference 3 yards to the TULSA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
75.4%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+21
75.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 21 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
72.6%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+11
74.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Deneric Prince for 11 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+10
72.1%
Deneric Prince run for 10 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+24
69.8%
Deneric Prince run for 19 yds to the OKSt 9 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (5 Yards) to the OKSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
69.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the OKSt 3Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
68.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for no gain to the OKSt 3Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
74.1%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 8Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
73.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q4 9:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
76.5%
Tyler Tipton 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 5:1881% → 92%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
80.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-3
80.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 20Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+20
78.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 20 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
82.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 7 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
82.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-10
81.5%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKSt 39Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+13
78.7%
Ld Brown run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
82.3%
Illingworth, Shane pass incomplete to Wallace, Tylan, PENALTY TULSA pass interference 15 yards to the TULSA33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
83.8%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 6 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+5
84.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
84.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
84.5%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 6
OPP 18
-5
83.0%
Ld Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+40
91.7%
Alex Hale 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · -23 yds · 2:2412% → 11%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.8%
Deneric Prince run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
85.0%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
87.0%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-2
88.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-5
89.4%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 24
OWN 11
0
89.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 24
OWN 11
-9
89.2%
Zach Smith sacked by Malcolm Rodriguez for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25FG
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:3296% → 97%
Q4 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
95.5%
Shane Illingworth run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
96.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
96.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
97.2%
Alex Hale 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-26
97.0%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Kolby Harvell-Peel return for 26 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:56
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
+19.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:35
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 4 yds to the Tulsa 33
-10
FG · Q4 4:27
Alex Hale 40 yd FG GOOD
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com