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HCU

Houston Christian 33 at Texas Tech 35

TTU
2020 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2020 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadHCU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreHCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:47 · Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:40: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 65 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — HCU win probability +5.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 1:39: SaRodorick Thompson run for 8 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +4.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:29: Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 18 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +2.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:19: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 75 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — HCU win probability +5.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: HCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:23: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — HCU win probability +24.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5HCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:11HCU 4th & 7 at TTU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34HCU 4th & 10 at TTU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00HCU 4th & 1 at TTU 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:16TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 49, up 11
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:55HCU 4th & 16 at HCU 6, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:21TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:32HCU 4th & 1 at TTU 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00HCU 4th & 14 at TTU 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:15TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 9, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:25HCU 4th & 3 at TTU 27, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.3%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:25TTU 4th & 13 at HCU 42, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00HCU 4th & 12 at TTU 40, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:19TTU 4th & 1 at HCU 4, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−2.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−7.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5HCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:22TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:39TTU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:22TTU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:21HCU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:40HCU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:39TTU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:29TTU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:19HCU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:23HCU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.0%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.0%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 14 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 2 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+15
99.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 15 yds to the HstnB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+37
99.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 37 yds to the HstnB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 2FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 3:111% → 1%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 11 yds to the HstnB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
98.9%
Ean Beek run for a loss of 1 yard to the HstnB 35Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+11
98.9%
Zappe, Bailey pass incomplete to Harrell, Vernon, PENALTY TTU pass interference (Monroe, Eric) 11 yards to the HBU46, 1ST DOWN HBU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
98.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 6 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
98.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 14 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
98.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 15 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
98.9%
Ean Beek run for 3 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
98.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
98.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete, broken up by Brandon Bouyer-RandleSimilar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
98.7%
Gino Garcia 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.7%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
98.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 12 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
98.7%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted Isaiah Cash return for 15 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
98.6%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Jaylon Hutchings for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
98.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 15
OPP 45
-5
98.6%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 20
50
+10
98.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 10 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
98.6%
Blake Patterson punt for 35 yds, downed at the TexTc 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 4:1899% → 98%
Q1 7:57
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+11
98.5%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 11 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
98.5%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 13 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
98.5%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Erik EzukanmaSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
98.5%
Alan Bowman run for 9 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
98.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 26 yds to the HstnB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
98.5%
SaRodorick Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the HstnB 37Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+10
98.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 10 yds to the HstnB 27Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+5
98.5%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the HstnB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
98.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 10 yds to the HstnB 12 for a 1ST down HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
98.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the HstnB 6Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+1
98.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the HstnB 5Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
98.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 5 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 6INT
18 plays · 75 yds · 3:392% → 2%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
98.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to DJ DormeusSimilar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
98.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 8 yds to the HstnB 26Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+3
98.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Alfaro for 3 yds to the HstnB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
98.3%
Ean Beek run for 3 yds to the HstnB 32Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
98.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to DJ Dormeus for 6 yds to the HstnB 38Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
98.3%
Bailey Zappe run for 2 yds to the HstnB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
98.3%
Zappe, Bailey pass complete to Ratzlaff, Ben for 9 yards to the HBU49 (McPhearson, Z.), PENALTY TTU pass interference (McPhearson, Z.) 9 yards to the HBU49, 1ST DOWN HBU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.2%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
98.3%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the HstnB 44Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+14
98.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 14 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
98.2%
Jaelon Woods run for no gain to the TexTc 42Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
97.8%
Ean Beek run for 2 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (Eli Howard) to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
97.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 7 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
97.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Ben RatzlaffSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+10
97.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 10 yds to the TexTc 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
97.8%
Jerreth Sterns pass intercepted Zech McPhearson return for 1 yd to the TexTc 1Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+1
97.9%
Blaise Bentsen run for 1 yd to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 48 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
97.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 6 yds to the TexTc 7Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+6
97.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 6 yds to the TexTc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
97.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+11
97.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 11 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
97.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 28Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+16
97.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 16 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
98.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Seth Collins for 5 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
97.9%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
97.9%
Austin McNamara punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterns at the HstnB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
97.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 4 yds to the HstnB 16Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
97.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 6
OWN 16
-5
97.6%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (Ben Ratzlaff) to the HstnB 11Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 11
OWN 11
-5
97.6%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (Ben Ratzlaff) to the HstnB 6Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 16
OWN 6
0
97.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 16
OWN 6
0
97.6%
Blake Patterson punt for 36 yds, downed at the HstnB 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:3298% → 98%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
97.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the HstnB 47Similar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+1
97.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the HstnB 46Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+10
97.5%
KeSean Carter run for 10 yds to the HstnB 36Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+5
97.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the HstnB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
97.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 14 yds to the HstnB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
97.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the HstnB 15Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
97.6%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Erik Ezukanma, broken up by Kenneth KempSimilar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+14
97.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 14 yds to the HstnB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:012% → 3%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
98.1%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the HstnB 14Similar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+10
98.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Bailey Zappe for 10 yds to the HstnB 24Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
98.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Eli HowardSimilar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+11
98.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to DJ Dormeus for 11 yds to the HstnB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
96.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to DJ Dormeus for 65 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
97.0%
Chadarius Townsend run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 23Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
97.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 5 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.9%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.8%
Austin McNamara punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterns at the HstnB 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 12DOWNS
16 plays · 70 yds · 3:313% → 4%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
96.9%
Ean Beek run for 8 yds to the HstnB 37Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
96.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Ean BeekSimilar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+3
96.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 3 yds to the HstnB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.8%
Ean Beek run for no gain to the HstnB 40Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
96.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Tyson Thompson for 17 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
96.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 20 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
96.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-5
96.5%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Eli Howard and Jaylon Hutchings for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 28Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+5
96.8%
Zappe, Bailey pass incomplete to Beek, Ean, PENALTY TTU offside defense (Jeffers, Riko) 5 yards to the TTU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+14
96.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 14 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
95.7%
Ean Beek run for 3 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
95.7%
Bailey Zappe run for 5 yds to the TexTc 1Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.3%
Jerreth Sterns run for no gain to the TexTc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
96.6%
Alan Bowman run for 4 yds to the TexTc 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.4%
Ean Beek run for 4 yds to the HstnB 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
96.3%
Ean Beek run for 2 yds to the HstnB 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+16
96.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Vernon Harrell for 16 yds to the HstnB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
96.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 16 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
96.0%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 42Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 42
-4
96.1%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Nick McCann and Philip Blidi for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 46
+5
96.2%
Blaise Bentsen pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 5 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 41
0
96.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Vernon HarrellSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
96.5%
Blake Patterson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Zech McPhearson at the TexTc 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
95.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Weston Wright) to the TexTc 2Similar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 12
OWN 2
+2
95.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
95.8%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to SaRodorick Thompson, broken up by Philip OssaiSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 10
OWN 4
-2
95.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, delay of game (-2 Yards) to the TexTc 2Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 12
OWN 2
+7
95.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 7 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 5
OWN 9
0
95.5%
Austin McNamara punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterns at the TexTc 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:425% → 6%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
94.9%
Ean Beek run for no gain to the TexTc 44Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
95.0%
Zappe, Bailey pass incomplete to Beek, Ean, PENALTY HBU holding (Brewer, William) 10 yards to the HBU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 20
OWN 46
+20
95.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 20 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
94.6%
Ean Beek run for 7 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
94.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Adam BeckSimilar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
94.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Ean Beek, broken up by Brandon Bouyer-RandleSimilar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+44
93.7%
Gino Garcia 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Travis Koontz for 9 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
94.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 10 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
95.0%
SaRodorick Thompson run for no gain to the TexTc 44Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+17
94.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 17 yds to the HstnB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
95.1%
SaRodorick Thompson run for a loss of 3 yards to the HstnB 42Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 13
OPP 42
0
94.9%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to SaRodorick ThompsonSimilar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 13
OPP 42
0
94.6%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to KeSean CarterSimilar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
94.1%
Austin McNamara punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:596% → 12%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
93.9%
Ean Beek run for a loss of 5 yards to the HstnB 15 HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+30
94.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 30 yds to the HstnB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
93.2%
Beek, Ean rush for 5 yards to the 50 yardline (Hutchings, Jayl), PENALTY HBU holding (Hood, Christian) 10 yards to the HBU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+65
87.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 65 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0188% → 95%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.1%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Erik EzukanmaSimilar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
87.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 13 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
88.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 4 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+11
89.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 11 yds to the HstnB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
89.8%
Bowman, Alan pass incomplete, PENALTY TTU holding (Deaton, Dawson) 10 yards to the TTU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+6
88.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 6 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+10
88.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 10 yds to the HstnB 41Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+7
89.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the HstnB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
90.2%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+24
90.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 24 yds to the HstnB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
90.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the HstnB 8Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
95.1%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 8 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 1:397% → 7%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 2 yds to the HstnB 27Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
93.2%
Zappe, Bailey pass incomplete to Ratzlaff, Ben, PENALTY TTU pass interference (McPhearson, Z.) 15 yards to the HBU42, 1ST DOWN HBU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
92.8%
Ean Beek run for 6 yds to the HstnB 48Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+14
92.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 14 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
91.6%
Ean Beek run for 3 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
90.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-5
91.8%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (Vernon Harrell) to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
92.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh SternsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
93.3%
Blake Patterson punt for 24 yds, downed at the TexTc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 2:4194% → 98%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+17
93.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 17 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
94.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 9 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 1
OWN 42
-10
94.6%
Thompson, S. rush for no gain to the TTU42, PENALTY TTU holding (Anderson, Jack) 10 yards to the TTU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+5
93.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 5 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+7
94.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 7 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.6%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Dalton Rigdon, broken up by Tra FluellenSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
94.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 8 yds to the HstnB 48Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
94.3%
Chadarius Townsend run for 3 yds to the HstnB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
94.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 20 yds to the HstnB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
94.8%
Chadarius Townsend run for 7 yds to the HstnB 18Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
94.8%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
97.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 18 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
92.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 75 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23DOWNS
18 plays · 71 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.0%
Chadarius Townsend run for 5 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
93.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 9 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
93.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 5 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+6
93.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 6 yds T.J. Vasher fumbled, , return to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
50
-5
93.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Weston Wright) to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 15
OWN 45
-5
93.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 20
OWN 40
0
93.5%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Erik Ezukanma, broken up by Devion HargroveSimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+12
93.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Chadarius Townsend for 12 yds to the HstnB 48Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+8
93.5%
Alan Bowman run for 8 yds to the HstnB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
94.1%
Chadarius Townsend run for 6 yds to the HstnB 34Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+9
94.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 9 yds to the HstnB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
94.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 8 yds to the HstnB 17Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+4
94.2%
Chadarius Townsend run for 4 yds to the HstnB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
94.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for no gain to the HstnB 13Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
94.2%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 7 yds to the HstnB 6Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+2
93.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the HstnB 4Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 1
OPP 4
0
93.2%
Alan Bowman run for no gain to the HstnB 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 96 yds · 2:028% → 37%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
92.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 9 yds to the HstnB 13Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+3
92.2%
Ean Beek run for 3 yds to the HstnB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
92.1%
Zappe, Bailey pass incomplete to Patterson, B., PENALTY TTU holding (McPhearson, Z.) 10 yards to the HBU26, 1ST DOWN HBU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+45
91.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 45 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
87.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+27
88.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 27 yds to the TexTc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
87.6%
Ean Beek run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 6Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
63.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25END OF GAME
12 plays · 40 yds · 1:3679% → 89%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 5 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
81.1%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 31Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
80.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 10 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
83.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 15 yds to the HstnB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
85.1%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the HstnB 43Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+11
88.0%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 11 yds to the HstnB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
89.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the HstnB 33Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-2
89.2%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:23
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-24.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+10.8
TD · Q3 5:40
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 65 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
-5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com